Celtics vs. Thunder Betting Preview & Spread Pick 1/2/24

Boston Celtics (26-6 SU, 15-15 ATS) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (22-9 SU, 23-8 ATS)

When: Tuesday, January 2nd, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Paycom Center, OK, Oklahoma City

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Bos -3/OKC +3

Total: 239.5

Money Line: Boston Celtics -146/+121

Notable Injuries

Celtics

None

Thunder

None

Recent Form

When looking at the Celtics’ 134-101 win over the Spurs, several key betting trends are working against their typical performance. Heading into the game, Boston was:

• AVG Over/Under Line: 228.4
• OU Record: 18-14
• Two games have had higher OU lines than today’s line of 239.5 (30 have been lower)
• Over/Under results in games with higher OU lines: 0-2

Heading into today’s game, the Celtics are 26-6 and in 1st place in the Eastern Conference. This includes a 6-game winning streak.

Against the spread, Boston is 15-15 this season on an average scoring differential of +6.9 points per game. When playing on the road, the Celtics have an ATS record of 10-6 and have covered the spread in four straight games on the road.

So far, the Celtics have been the favorite in 30 of their 32 games and have a record of 24-6 in those games. Their two losses as the favorite came against the spread (2-0).

Heading into today’s matchup vs. the Celtics, the Thunder are 3-point underdogs at home. If they are able to pull off the win, they will also move into a tie with the Celtics for the 2nd-best record in the Western Conference.

So far, Oklahoma City has put together an impressive four-game winning streak. This, combined with their overall record of 22-9, has the Thunder sitting 2nd in the West.

Against the spread, OKC has been a bit more reliable on the road this season, as they have an average margin of +8.7 points per game compared to +8.4 at home. The Thunder’s road ATS record for the season is 10-3, and they have also covered the spread in four straight games.

Today’s over/under line of 239.5 is just slightly higher than the average over/under line of 232.1 for the season. 28 of their games have had lower over/under lines than today’s line. This season, their games have finished with more than 239.5 points in two of three games with higher OU lines.

The Historicals

In terms of betting, Oklahoma City has an ATS record of 5-0 in the previous five matchups vs Boston. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +3 points per game in favor of the Thunder. A combined average of 243 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 5-0.

Analysis

In their last game, the Celtics put up 134 points against the Spurs and shot 53.7% from the field. They were also 17/22 from the free-throw line. Jayson Tatum led the way with 25 points, while Jaylen Brown added 24 points.

This season, the Celtics’ defense is the 4th ranked defense in the NBA at 4th PPG. So far, they have held opposing offenses below the NBA scoring average in 71.9% of their games. On two-point field goal attempts, the Celtics’ defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 50.7% and allowing 36.6% from beyond the arc.

In their last game vs. the Nets, the Thunder put up 124 points. As a team, they shot 54.2% from the field and made 18 three-pointers. Leading the way in scoring for the Thunder vs. the Nets was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with 24 points, while Josh Giddey added 20 points.

So far this season, the Thunder defense has been performing well, ranking 11th in the NBA at 112.7 points allowed per contest. In the terms of takeaways, Thunder are causing 11.6 turnovers per game, ranking 4th in the league. They also enter the matchup ranked 1st in rejections, averaging 6.6 blocked shots each game.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past five road matchups, Boston has an ATS record of 4-1 while averaging 135 per game. The team went 4-1 overall in these games.
• Through their last ten home games, Oklahoma City has an ATS record of just 8-2. However, their overall record was 7-3 while averaging 119 points per game.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Oklahoma City has an ATS mark of 3-2 while going 2-3 straight up.
• As the betting favorite, the Celtics have an ATS record of 3-2 in their last five games. In these matchups, their straight up record was 5-0.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

In a matchup between two of the hotter teams in the league, the Celtics come in as 3-point favorites on the road. I think the acquisition of Jrue Holiday will show up huge in a matchup with Gilgeous-Alexander. My pick is to take Boston at -3 on the road.