Celtics vs Nuggets NBA Betting Tips & Predictions (1/7/25)

Boston Celtics (26-10 SU, 14-21 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (20-14 SU, 15-18 ATS)

When: Tuesday, January 7th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Bos -5.5/Den +5.5

Total: 235.5

Money Line: Boston Celtics -217/+179

Notable Injuries

Celtics

• No Injuries Reported

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Out) Calf
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles
• Spencer Jones (Out) Adductor

At 10:00 ET, the Boston Celtics (-217) will take on the Denver Nuggets (+179) in a non-conference matchup. The Celtics (-5.5) are currently 2nd in the Eastern Conference with a record of 26-10, while the Nuggets (+5.5) are 4th in the Western Conference at 20-14.

This game will be played at Ball Arena in Denver and can be seen on TNT.

Recent Form

The Celtics fell to 26-10 on the season after a 105-92 road loss to the Thunder on Sunday. Boston, favored by 1 point, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total score of 197 points was well below the O/U line of 225.

Boston led 65-55 at halftime, but the game turned in the 2nd half. The Celtics were outscored 21-15 in the 3rd quarter and 29-12 in the 4th, as the Thunder dominated the final stretch.

Denver improved to 20-14 this season with a 122-111 road win over the Spurs on Saturday. The Nuggets, who were favored by 3 points, covered the spread, while the game’s total of 233 points narrowly missed the O/U line of 236.

The Nuggets trailed 92-81 heading into the 4th quarter but held the Spurs to just 16 points in the final period while scoring 27 of their own to complete the comeback.

The Historicals

In terms of betting vs the spread, the Nuggets have gone 3-2, but the Celtics actually have a positive scoring differential. In these meetings, Boston has averaged 115 points per contest while allowing 111. In these contests, they averaged a combined 226 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 3-1-1.

Analysis

In their 105-92 loss to the Thunder, the Celtics struggled offensively, shooting just 36.5% from the field and hitting only nine three-pointers at a 19.6% rate. Jayson Tatum led Boston with 26 points and 10 rebounds, shooting 41.2% from the floor and making two threes at 33.3%.

Jaylen Brown added 21 points, scoring 10 in the 1st quarter and 11 in the 2nd. Kristaps Porzingis contributed 19 points and nine rebounds, shooting 50% from the field, while Derrick White chipped in 11 points, with seven coming in the 2nd quarter.

Despite a solid defensive effort, the Celtics couldn’t overcome the Thunder, allowing 105 points in the loss. Boston gave up 32 points in the 1st quarter but tightened up in the 2nd and 3rd, allowing just 23 and 21 points, respectively. However, a 29-point 4th quarter from the Thunder sealed the Celtics’ fate.

Defensively, Boston held Oklahoma City to 44% shooting, including 16 threes at a 42% clip. The Thunder also went 11/13 from the free-throw line. The Celtics gave up nine offensive rebounds while recording six steals and five blocks.

Nikola Jokic’s 46-point, 10-assist performance propelled the Nuggets to a 122-111 win over the Spurs, as he shot 54.3% from the field and added three three-pointers. Michael Porter Jr. contributed 28 points, hitting four threes at a 44.4% rate.

Despite shooting just 43.5% from the field and 30.3% from three, the Nuggets managed to connect on 10 threes overall. Jokic scored 9 points in overtime, while Porter added three more in the extra period.

Despite giving up 37 points in the 3rd quarter, the Nuggets’ defense tightened up in the 4th, allowing just 16 points to help secure the win. Overall, they held the Spurs to 111 points on 39% shooting.

Denver’s defense was particularly strong against the three, as they limited San Antonio to 27% from beyond the arc, with just 13 made threes. The Nuggets also recorded 11 steals and seven blocks in the game.

Betting Trends

• Across their five previous road games, Boston has an ATS mark of 2-2-1. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 3-2 while averaging 109 points per game.
• Across their last three home contests, Denver has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1 while averaging 118 points per game.
• In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Nuggets have a strong straight-up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.
• Although the Celtics have a strong straight-up record in their last five games as the betting favorite, they have not done as well vs the spread going 2-2-1.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Boston heads to Denver tonight looking to start to gather some momentum, as they are just 5-5 in their last 10 games, putting them 5.5 behind the Cavs for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. For tonight’s matchup, they are favored by -5.5 over a Nuggets squad that is 4th in the West, has 20 wins, but has never truly found its groove this season. Aaron Gordon’s availability continues to be an issue for Denver, as his athleticism and defensive presence make a big difference in their rotations. Yet, I see this game being closer than where this line is currently set. I’m going with Denver to cover at +5.5.