Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 4 Betting Analysis & Prediction

Boston Celtics (64-18 SU, 50-44 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (50-32 SU, 59-42 ATS)

When: Friday, June 14th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas

TV: ABC

Point Spread: Bos +1/Dal -1 (Did you know you can bet on games at -105 odds at BAS?)

Total: 211.5

Money Line: Boston Celtics -111/-110

Notable Injuries

Celtics

• Kristaps Porzingis (Questionable) Lower Leg

Mavericks

None

Heading into game four of the NBA Finals, the Celtics, who lead the series 3-0, are the one-seed, while the Mavericks are the five-seed. The game tips off at 8:30 PM ET on Friday, June 14th, and will be televised on ABC. The over/under is 211.5 points, and the Mavericks are favored by -1 at home.

The most recent game of this Celtics vs. Mavericks series went in favor of the Celtics, as they picked up a 106-99 win in Dallas. Boston was a 3-point underdog going into the game, so they covered the spread. The game also went under the over/under line of 213.5 points, with the teams combining for 205 points. The Celtics held the Mavericks to just 9 made threes, which was below their season average.

It was a close game after the 1st quarter, with the Mavericks holding a 31-30 lead. However, the Celtics took control in the 3rd quarter, outscoring the Mavericks 35-19. Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with 31 points, while Kyrie Irving had 35 for the Mavericks.

Recent Form

The Celtics have an O/U record of 51-47-1 this season, and the under has hit in their last four games. Today’s O/U line of 211.5 is lower than their season average of 226.5.

Out of their 82 games this season, the Celtics have been favored in 94 of them. As the underdog, their record is 3-2, and they have covered the spread in 47 of those games. As the underdog, their ATS record is 3-2.

On the road, the Celtics have an average scoring differential of +7.8 points per game. Their ATS record on the road is 23-23, and they have won seven straight games on the road.

In their last game against the Mavericks, the Celtics won 106-99 as 3-point underdogs. This victory gave them a 10-game winning streak, and they are currently in 1st place in the Eastern Conference.

In their last game, the Celtics and Mavericks combined for 205 points, which was below the O/U line of 213.5. Today’s O/U line of 211.5 is also lower than their season average of 226.2.

In terms of their over/under record, the Mavericks are 46-56 on the season. The under has hit in each of their last three games, and their games have averaged 228.9 points per game compared to today’s line of 211.5.

Dallas’ ATS record for the season is 59-42, and they have failed to cover the spread in their last two home games. As the favorite, their ATS record is 38-24, and they have been favored in 44 of their 62 games.

Going into today’s game, the Mavericks have lost three straight games, and they are 50-32 overall, which is 5th in the Western Conference. In games against the West, they are 31-21 and 11-5 in their division.

The Mavericks also lost their last game against the Celtics by a score of 106-99. They were favored by 3 points in that game and are favored by 1 point today.

For the season, the Mavericks have a 30-20 record at home, and their average scoring margin is +3.3 points per game. In the Western Conference, their ATS record at home is 25-25 and 32-20 straight up.

The Historicals

Across the previous 5 meetings between the teams, the Celtics have an average scoring margin of +14 points per game, leading to an ATS mark of 4-0-1. Boston and Dallas averaged a combined 216 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

Boston comes into the game as the NBA’s second-highest scoring offense, at 120.6 points per contest. Despite their high-scoring ways, they have scored below the league average in 42.7% of their games this season. The Celtics are also one of the league’s fastest-paced teams, averaging 97.2 possessions per game.

For the season, the Celtics lead the league in both three-point attempts and three-pointers made per game. They are averaging 16.5 made threes per game, at a rate of 38%, which is the second-best mark in the league. Jayson Tatum is averaging 25.4 points per game over his last five games, and Jaylen Brown is at 25.2 while shooting 53.9% from the field in that stretch.

When it comes to defense, the Boston Celtics are one of the best in the NBA. For the season, they are giving up just 107.7 points per game, which is the 3rd fewest in the league. On the road, they are allowing 108.6 points per game, which is also 3rd best.

One of the reasons the Celtics have been so good on defense is their ability to protect the rim. They are 2nd in the NBA in blocked shots per game at 6.6. They are also 1st in the league in defensive rebounds per game.

When it comes to defending the three-point line, Boston is 11th in the NBA. They are giving up just 35.9 three-point attempts per game, which is 20th in the league. In terms of free throws, the Celtics are the best in the NBA at just 16.7 made free throws allowed per game.

Luka Doncic is averaging 30.6 points per game over his last five games while hitting 47.9% of his shots from the field. In these games, he also averaged 3.8 made threes per contest. For the season, Doncic is averaging 33.9 points per game to go along with 9.8 assists and 9.2 rebounds. Tim Hardaway Jr. has hit 35.3% of his threes this season and 2.7 threes per game.

Dallas is the 4th ranked team in both three-point attempts and makes this season. Their team three-point shooting percentage is 15th in the league. Overall, the Mavericks are 11th in scoring at 117.9 points per game. For the season, they are averaging 116.5 points per game at home, which is 10th in the league.

When it comes to defense, the Dallas Mavericks have been fairly average this season, ranking 15th in points allowed per game at 113.4. Over their last five games, they have been even better, ranking 6th at 105.2 points per game allowed.

One area where the Mavericks have struggled defensively is steals, as they rank just 26th in the league at 6.9 per game. Despite this, they have done a good job of protecting the rim, ranking 15th in blocked shots per game.

Throughout the season, opponents have shot 47.1% from the field against the Mavs, which is 13th in the NBA. Over their last five games, they have been even better, ranking 12th at 46.9%.

Betting Trends

• In their last five games away from home, the Celtics have a straight up record of 5-0 while going 2-3 vs the spread. The team averaged 108 points per game in this stretch.
• In their last three games at home, the Mavericks have a straight up record of 1-2 while going 1-1-1 vs. the spread. The team averaged 103 points per game in this stretch.
• As the betting underdog, the Celtics have an ATS mark of just 1-2 in their last three games. Boston posted a straight up mark of 1-2 in these matchups.
• As the betting favorite, the Mavericks have an ATS mark of just 5-5 in their last ten games. Dallas posted a straight up mark of 6-4 in these matchups.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Dallas needed to come out on top on Wednesday in game three if they were going to have any shot in this series. Even with the loss and a 3-0 defecit in the series, they are still are still favored at -1, heading into game four. Although, I’m sure the NBA doesn’t want to see a sweep, the Celtics are just too much for the Mavericks. Boston has been excellent at creating favorable matchups vs. Luka Doncic, and there isn’t much Jason Kidd can do to prevent this. I like Boston to close it out, nd am taking them on the money line.

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