Celtics vs. Heat Pick & Predictions Game 4

Boston Celtics (64-18 SU, 43-38 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (46-36 SU, 43-41 ATS)

When: Monday, April 29th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: Kaseya Center, FL, Miami

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Bos -10.5/Mia +10.5

Total: 203.5

Money Line: Boston Celtics -517/+389

Notable Injuries

Celtics

None

Heat

• Jimmy Butler (Out) Knee
• Josh Richardson (Out) Shoulder
• Terry Rozier (Out) Neck
• Delon Wright (Probable) Personal

Game four of this first-round Eastern Conference series between the Celtics and Heat is set for 7:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center in Miami. Heading into Monday night’s matchup, the Celtics lead the series 2-1 and are favored by 10.5 points. The over/under line is at 203.5 points, and the money line odds are -517 for the Celtics and +389 for the Heat. TNT is carrying the game on TV.

The Celtics picked up a big win in the most recent game of this series, taking down the Heat by a score of 104-84. They really took control of the game in the 2nd quarter, outscoring the Heat 42-27. Going into the game, the Celtics were favored by 9.5 points, and they easily covered the spread. The 188 combined points fell 17 points short of the over/under line of 205.

Defensively, the Celtics really stepped up in this game, holding the Heat to just 84 points. Miami shot just 41.6% from the field and made only nine threes. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum each had 22 points for the Celtics. Brown shot 55% from the field, while Tatum made just two threes and shot 28.6% from beyond the arc. Bam Adebayo led the Heat with 20 points.

Recent Form

Boston is currently 43-38 against the spread this season, going 20-20 ATS on the road and 23-18 ATS at home. As the favorite, the Celtics are 41-36 ATS and 64-17 overall. Today, they are favored by 10.5 points.

This season, the Celtics have gone 44-40-1 on the O/U, with their games averaging 228.8 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 203.5 is lower than their season average of 228.4.

In their last game against the Heat, the Celtics won 104-84, covering the spread as 9.5-point favorites. The game finished with a combined scoring total of 188 points, going under the O/U line of 205.

Boston is currently 1st in the Eastern Conference with a record of 64-18. Against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 41-11 and 23-7 against the West. On the road, the Celtics are 28-14.

Miami’s O/U record for the season is 37-50, and their games have averaged 217.7 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 203.5, and 86 of their games have had higher O/U lines than that.

In their last game against the Celtics, the two teams combined for just 188 points, falling short of the O/U line of 205. Miami lost the game by a score of 104-84.

Against the spread, Miami is 43-41 for the season, going 26-15 on the road and 17-26 at home. As the underdog, they are 19-19 ATS on the road and 12-26 overall.

In the Eastern Conference standings, the Heat are currently in 8th place with a record of 46-36. In the Southeast Division, they are in 2nd place. Miami’s non-conference record is 14-16, compared to 32-20 against the East.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings is 3-2 in favor of the Celtics. In these matchups, Boston has averaged 114 points per game, while allowing 101. Boston and Miami averaged a combined 215 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

Heading into the game, the Celtics are the NBA’s second-ranked scoring offense, at 120.6 points per game. Despite their high-scoring average, they have scored below the league average in 30.5% of their games. Boston has been getting some good production from Payton Pritchard of late, as he is averaging 16.8 points per game over his last five games on a shooting percentage of 63.6%.

Boston is the league’s top three-point shooting team this season, both in terms of three-point attempts and three-pointers made. They are averaging 16.5 made threes per game and 42.5 attempts. Jayson Tatum is averaging 26.9 points per game this season and 24.3 points in his last three games. Jaylen Brown is averaging 23 points per game this year and 24 over his last three games.

As one of the top defensive teams in the league, the Boston Celtics have been able to hold opponents to just 108.8 points per game, which is the 5th best mark in the NBA. Their defense has been even better on the road, where they are giving up just 109.9 points per game, which is the 4th best mark in the league.

One reason for their success on the defensive end has been their ability to limit opponents’ field goal percentage, as they are 2nd in the NBA in that category at 45.4%. They have also been excellent at defending inside the arc, as they are 2nd in the league in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 51.9%.

Despite being one of the top defensive teams in the league, opponents have been able to make more threes than their season average in 52.4% of games vs. the Celtics. However, they have done a good job of not fouling, as they are 1st in the NBA in free throws made allowed per game at 17.2.

Miami comes into the game as the 27th-ranked scoring team in the league, at 110.1 points per game. Their home scoring average of 111.5 points per contest is 24th in the NBA. The Heat have one of the better three-point shooting percentages in the league, as they have hit 37% of their looks from downtown this season, which is the 10th-best mark in the league.

Jimmy Butler is averaging 20.8 points per game this season, to go along with 5 assists and 5.3 rebounds. Terry Rozier is averaging 19.8 points and 5.6 assists. Tyler Herro has averaged 19.8 points and 7.6 assists in his last five games. Over his last five games, Bam Adebayo is averaging 17.6 points on 56.1% shooting.

So far this season, the Miami Heat defense has been one of the best in the NBA, ranking 3rd in points allowed per game at 108.1. At home, they have been even better, giving up just 109.6 points per game, which is 8th in the league.

One area where the Heat have been strong is at the free-throw line, where they are 3rd in the NBA in made free-throws allowed per game at 19.2. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Miami is 11th overall at 46.7%.

Over their last five games, the Heat have been even better on defense, ranking 4th in points allowed at 103 per game. During that stretch, opponents have shot just 44.3% from the field and 35.3% from three-point range.

Betting Trends

• Across their five previous road games, Boston has an ATS mark of 2-3. Their straight up record in these matchups was 3-2 while averaging 107 points per game.
• Across the Heat last ten home games, the team averaged 108 points per game while allowing 106. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 7-3, while going 6-4 straight-up.
• The last ten games that Miami was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 4-6 while going 2-8 straight up.
• The Celtics have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Heat shocked everyone by picking up a win in Boston in game two, but the Celtics responded in a big way by going down to Miami and dominating game three. Now, they are -10.5 point favorites heading into game four, and I see them picking up the win and covering at this number. I think that game two loss, was just the wake up call they needed, and their is no way that the Heat can repeat the three-point shooting performance they put on in that one. I like Boston -10.5 tonight.