Celtics vs. Heat Game 6 Betting Preview & Pick

Boston Celtics (57-25 SU, 54-44-2 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (44-38 SU, 43-55-2 ATS)
When: Saturday, May 27th, 8:30 PM (ET)
Where: Kaseya Center, FL, Miami
TV: TNT

Point Spread: Bos -3/Mia +3
Total: 210.0
Money Line: Boston Celtics -148/+124

Notable Injuries

Celtics

• Danilo Gallinari (Out) Knee
• Malcolm Brogdon (Questionable) Forearm

Heat

• Victor Oladipo (Out) Knee
• Gabe Vincent (Questionable) Ankle
• Tyler Herro (Out) Hand

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Boston is 57-25 overall. When taking to the road, Boston has a mark of 25-16 and a win percentage of 61%. Currently, the team is 2nd in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 54-44-2 vs. the spread. In their matchup against Miami, the Boston Celtics have won 2 straight games and will look to push that mark to 3 in a row.

The Celtics came away with a win in their last matchup against the Heat, achieving a 110-97 victory as 8-point favorites. Derrick White led the Celtics with an impressive performance, scoring 24 points on a shooting percentage of 72.7%. In addition to the win, the Celtics also covered the spread.

Heading into the game, Miami is 44-38 overall. When playing at home, Miami has a mark of 27-14 and a win percentage of 66%. Currently, the team is 8th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 43-55-2 vs the spread. The Heat need a win in today’s matchup vs. Boston to avoid their 3rd straight loss.

Miami most recently lost to the Celtics by a score of 110-97. The team high 18 points from Duncan Robinson were not enough to come home with the win. The Heat were 8-point favorites going into the game.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Celtics picked up the 110-97 win over the Heat. The Celtics margin of victory was enough to cover the spread as 8.5 point favorite. So far this season, the Heat have a record of 5-4 vs the Celtics. The level of competition has been tight in the 5 most recent games between the Celtics and Heat, with just -2 points per game separating the teams. Miami has the ATS edge in this span at 3-2. A combined average of 220 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

For the season, Boston has put together one of the top-scoring offenses in the NBA at 117.9 points per game. When looking at their style of play, the team is currently near the league average in pace, averaging 99.3 possessions per contest. The Celtics come into the game ranked 5th in 3-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are among the league leaders in attempts at 42.6 attempts per game. Defensively, the Celtics allow an average of 104.5 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 33.9%.

Jayson Tatum is the top scorer for Boston, averaging 30.1 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 46.6%. The team’s second leading scorer is Jaylen Brown, with an average of 26.6 points per game.

This season, Miami is averaging just 109.5 points per game, which places them 36th in the league and play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 96.2 possessions per game. In terms of 3-point shooting, the Heat are ranked 17th in attempts per game. However, they have been one of the more efficient shooting teams in the league, connecting at a rate of 34.4%. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.6 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

Bam Adebayo comes in with an average of 20.4 points per game. This season, Adebayo has a field goal percentage of 54.0%. The team’s leading scorer is Jimmy Butler, who is averaging 22.9 points per game.

Betting Trends

• The Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• The Celtics are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
• The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
• The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

If the oddsmakers are going to keep putting out low scoring lines on a player getting a bunch of minutes (Caleb Martin), I’m going to keep betting it! I’m betting Caleb Martin OVER 12.5!