Celtics vs. Heat Game 4 Prediction

Boston Celtics (57-25 SU, 52-44-2 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (44-38 SU, 43-53-2 ATS)
When: Tuesday, May 23rd, 8:30 PM (ET)
Where: Kaseya Center, FL, Miami
TV: TNT

Point Spread: Bos +1.5/Mia -1.5
Total: 216.5
Money Line: Boston Celtics +101/-121

Notable Injuries

Celtics

• Danilo Gallinari (Out) Knee

Heat

• Kevin Love (Probable) Leg
• Victor Oladipo (Out) Knee
• Tyler Herro (Out) Hand

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Boston is 57-25 overall. When taking to the road, Boston has a mark of 25-16 and a win percentage of 61%. Currently, the team is 2nd in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 52-44-2 vs. the spread. Boston travels to take on the Heat, hoping to avoid their 4th straight loss.

Boston most recently lost to the Heat by a score of 128-102. The team high 14 points from Jayson Tatum was not enough to come away with the win. The Celtics were 4-point favorites going into the game.

Heading into the game, Miami is 44-38 overall. When playing at home, Miami has a mark of 27-14 and a win percentage of 66%. Currently, the team is 8th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 43-53-2 vs. the spread. Miami will look to stay hot in today’s game vs. Boston as they are the winners of 4 straight games.

Miami will be looking to build on their most recent win over the Celtics. Gabe Vincent led the team to a win with his 29 points. The Heat were 4-point underdogs on the spread, giving them an ATS win.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Heat picked up the win 128-102 win over the Celtics. Heading into the game, Miami was the 4.5-point underdogs, giving them an ATS win. So far this season, the Heat have a record of 5-2 vs the Celtics. In terms of betting, Miami has an ATS record of 5-0 in the previous 5 matchups vs Boston. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +10 points per game in favor of the Heat. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 4-1. Combined, they averaged 222 points in these games.

Analysis

For the season, Boston has put together one of the top-scoring offenses in the NBA at 117.9 points per game. When looking at their style of play, the team is currently near the league average in pace, averaging 99.3 possessions per contest. Boston’s offensive attack has benefited from some hot shooting from outside. Not only are they among the league leaders in 3-pointers attempted per game, but they are 9th in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.7%. Defensively, the Celtics have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 104.5 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 33.9%.

Jayson Tatum is the top scorer for the Celtics, with an average of 30.1 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 46.6%. Jaylen Brown is the team’s second-leading scorer, averaging 26.6 points per game.

This season, Miami is averaging just 109.5 points per game, which places them 29th in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 96.2 possessions per game. Miami’s 3-point shooting numbers are below the league average, as they have hit just 34.4% of their looks from deep. On average, the team gets up 34.8 3-point shots per game, placing them 17th in the NBA. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.6 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

The team’s second-leading scorer is Jimmy Butler at 22.9 points per contest, with Bam Adebayo also contributing an average of 20.4 points per contest.

Betting Trends

• The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
• The Celtics are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• The Heat are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a ATS win.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

I’m betting Caleb Martin to go OVER 11.5 points.