Celtics vs. Hawks Odds, Trends, Predictions 11/16/22

Boston Celtics (11-3 SU, 7-7-0 ATS) vs. Atlanta Hawks (9-5 SU, 7-7-0 ATS)
When: Wednesday, November 16th, 7:30 PM (ET)
Where: State Farm Arena, GA, Atlanta
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: BOS -2.0/ ATL +2
Total: 232.0
Money Line: Boston Celtics -133/ +110

Notable Injuries

Celtics

• Marcus Smart (Probable) Ankle
• Danilo Gallinari (Out) Knee
• Malcolm Brogdon (Questionable) Hamstring
• Robert Williams III (Out) Knee

Hawks

• Bogdan Bogdanovic (Out) Knee

Recent Form

The Celtics come into today’s matchup with an overall record of 11-3. So far, the team has gone 7-7-0 against the spread. Against the Hawks, the Celtics are looking to add to their current 7 game winning streak. The team has an average scoring margin of 10.0 in these matchups.

The Celtics are coming off a 126-122 win over the Thunder. Although they came away with a straight-up win, it was not enough to cover the spread as they entered as 12-point favorites. Boston pulled out the win despite trailing by 7 going into halftime. The team did not put a dent in this deficit in the 3rd quarter, but put together a strong comeback effort in the 4th. In the win, Jayson Tatum led the team in scoring with 27 points on a field goal percentage of 39.1%.

So far, the Hawks have put together an overall record of 9-5, while going 7-7-0 vs the spread. Looking back on the Hawks’ previous 3 games, they have a record of 2-1 while averaging 111 points per game. Over this stretch, their ATS mark is 2-1.

The Hawks are coming off a 121-106 win over the Bucks. This win came despite entering the game as the 4-point underdogs. Not only did the team win the game, but they also outscored the Bucks in every quarter. Leading the team in scoring was De’Andre Hunter, as he contributed 24 points while hitting 40.0% of his shots.

The Historicals

Although the two teams ended their head-to-head season series with a split, the Hawks took care of business at home, going 2-0 on their home court. Last year, the Celtics saw a drop in overall scoring when playing the Hawks, averaging 100.75 points per game. Like the Celtics, the Hawks scored at a rate below their season average, finishing with 102.75 points per game vs Boston. In terms of betting, Atlanta has an ATS record of 3-2 in the previous 5 matchups vs Boston. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +4 points per game in favor of the Hawks. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 1-4. Combined, they averaged 210 points in these games.

Analysis

Heading into play, the Celtics offense is rated 1st in the league in scoring, averaging 1st points per contest. The Celtics come into the game as one of the league’s better 3-point shooting teams, connecting at a rate of 15.6 made 3’s per game. One area that the Boston offense will continue to rely on is their ability to get to the free-throw line. So far, they are the 6th ranked unit in made free-throw per game.

Defensively, the Celtics are one of the top-performing units in the league, giving up 104.48 points per contest (1st).

This season, the Celtics’ offense has primarily worked through Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who are 1st and 2nd on the team in scoring. In his 14 games, Tatum is 3rd in the NBA at 31.93 points per game. So far, him and Brown have accounted for 46% of the team’s field goal attempts while combining to average 57.31 points per contest. In addition to sitting 2nd on the team in scoring, Jaylen Brown is grabbing 6.77 rebounds for Boston to go along with 3.46 assists.

The Atlanta offense will take the floor in today’s game with the league’s 10th-ranked offense at 115.6 points per game. Coming into today’s game, the Hawks will be looking to improve their 3-point shooting numbers, as they are averaging just 9.4 made 3’s per game. Atlanta appears to be a candidate to have some offensive regression as not only are they a below-average outside shooting unit, but they are generating free throws at a rate below the NBA average.

Against the Celtics, the Hawks will need a stronger defensive effort as they are ranked just 21st in points allowed.

On offense, Trae Young leads the Celtics in scoring at 26.92 points per game, placing him 11th in the NBA. Overall, Young has hit 37.8% of his shots while accounting for 23.6% of the team’s looks from the field. In today’s game, he will be working against a defensive unit that is 12th in points allowed to point guards. At 21.5 points per game, Dejounte Murray is the 2nd leading scorer for the Celtics. For the season, he is 54th in the league in player efficiency rating while posting an effective field goal percentage of 24.42.

More Picks: Indiana at Charlotte 11/16/22 betting preview with suggested wager

Betting Trends

• Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games.
• Hawks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Hawks are an excellent home team and can score a high enough volume to not only stick with Boston, but beat them straight up. I’m taking the points and betting Atlanta +2.5!