Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves Picks: Finding Value in Saturday’s NBA Matchup

Cleveland Cavaliers (34-6 SU, 27-13 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (22-19 SU, 16-24 ATS)

When: Saturday, January 18th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis

TV: FDSO

Point Spread: Cle -6.5/Min +6.5

Total: 227

Money Line: Cleveland Cavaliers -253/+208

Notable Injuries

Cavaliers

• Isaac Okoro (Questionable) Shoulder
• Evan Mobley (Questionable) Calf

Timberwolves

• Donte DiVincenzo (Questionable) Toe
• Leonard Miller (Questionable) Illness
• Terrence Shannon Jr. (Out) Foot

At 9:00 ET, the Minnesota Timberwolves will host the Cleveland Cavaliers in a non-conference matchup at the Target Center. The Cavaliers are currently favored by 6.5 points and have a record of 34-6, while the Timberwolves are 22-19 and sit in 8th place in the Western Conference.

This game can be seen on FDSO, and the over/under line is set at 227.

Recent Form

The Cavaliers fell to 34-6 on the season after a 134-114 road loss to the Thunder on Thursday. Cleveland entered the game as +2.5 point underdogs but failed to cover the spread, losing by 20 points. The total score of 248 points exceeded the over/under line of 232 by 16 points.

Oklahoma City took control early with an 11-0 run, stretching the score from 12-11 to 22-12. The Thunder outscored the Cavs 32-14 in the 1st quarter and continued to dominate, leading 119-81 going into the 4th. Cleveland rallied in the final quarter, outscoring the Thunder 33-15, but it was too late to change the outcome.

The Timberwolves improved to 22-19 on the season with a 116-99 win over the Knicks on Friday. Minnesota, who entered the game as +3 point underdogs, not only won but covered the spread with a +17 point victory. The total points for the game came in just under the 216.5 line, with a combined 215 points.

A key moment in the game was a 10-0 run by the Timberwolves, which helped them build an early lead. After a close 2nd and 3rd quarter, Minnesota pulled away in the 4th, outscoring the Knicks 35-21 to seal the win.

The Historicals

In terms of betting, Minnesota has an ATS record of 4-1 in the previous five matchups vs Cleveland. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +4 points per game in favor of the Timberwolves. The over-under record in these same games is 3-2, with the teams combining for an average of 224 points per game.

Analysis

In their 134-114 loss to the Thunder, the Cavaliers struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 31% of their threes and making 13 overall. Their field goal percentage was 46.7%, which was below average.

Darius Garland led the Cavs with 20 points and nine assists, shooting 70% from the field and scoring 15 points in the 2nd quarter. Jarrett Allen was perfect from the field, adding 13 points, with seven coming in the 3rd quarter. Ty Jerome contributed 12 points, hitting two threes at a 66.7% rate and scoring 7 points in the 4th.

The Cavaliers struggled defensively against the Thunder, giving up 134 points in the loss. Cleveland allowed 32 points in the 1st quarter, 43 in the 2nd, and 44 in the 3rd before tightening up in the 4th, where they gave up just 15 points. Overall, the Thunder shot 50% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Cavaliers allowed 18 threes on 34% shooting. They sent the Thunder to the free-throw line 11 times, where they made 10. Cleveland grabbed 38 defensive rebounds while allowing eight offensive boards. They also recorded two steals and five blocks.

In their win over the Knicks, the Timberwolves shot 53.2% from the field and hit 22 threes at a 55% clip. Anthony Edwards led the way with 36 points, 13 rebounds, and eight threes, shooting 61.5% from deep.

Naz Reid added 23 points, making all 6 of his three-point attempts, and Mike Conley contributed 13 points, 10 of which came in the first quarter.

Despite a rough 2nd quarter where they gave up 38 points, the Timberwolves’ defense held strong in the 3rd, allowing just 19 points, and they limited the Knicks to 21 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters. Overall, Minnesota held New York to 99 points on 38% shooting.

The Timberwolves struggled to defend the three, as the Knicks hit 14 threes at a 41% clip. Minnesota sent New York to the line 17 times, where they made 15 free throws. The Timberwolves finished with five steals and two blocks.

Betting Trends

• Although Cleveland has a straight-up record of 7-3 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 7-3. The team averaged 121 points per game in these games.
• In their last ten games at home, the Timberwolves have a straight-up record of 7-3 while going 6-4 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 108 points per game in these contests.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, Minnesota has an ATS mark of 6-3-1 while going 5-5 straight up.
• As the betting favorite, the Cavaliers have an ATS mark of just 6-4 in their last ten games. Cleveland posted a straight-up mark of 9-1 in these matchups.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Timberwolves picked up a big win over the Knicks last night. However, New York was missing Karl-Anthony Towns. Now, they have to get right back at it, as they host a Cavaliers team that is looking to bounce back from being blown out by the Thunder. Look for Cleveland to come out looking to make a statement. I like the Cavs to cover at -6.5.