Cavaliers vs. Thunder: Point Spread Pick & Preview

by | Last updated Jan 16, 2025 | nba

Cleveland Cavaliers (34-5 SU, 27-12 ATS) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (33-6 SU, 25-12 ATS)

When: Thursday, January 16th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: Paycom Center, OK, Oklahoma City

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Cle +2.5/OKC -2.5

Total: 232.5

Money Line: Cleveland Cavaliers +110/-131

Notable Injuries

Cavaliers

  • Ty Jerome (Questionable) Illness

Thunder

  • Isaiah Hartenstein (Out) Calf
  • Chet Holmgren (Out) Hip
  • Nikola Topic (Out) Knee
  • Ajay Mitchell (Out) Toe

At 7:30 ET, the Thunder (-131) will host the Cavaliers (+110) in a non-conference matchup. Oklahoma City (-2.5) is currently on a three-game win streak and is 33-6 overall. Cleveland (34-5) is 1st in the Eastern Conference and 1st in the Central Division.

This game will be played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. TNT will provide TV coverage for this matchup.

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The Cavaliers improved to 34-5 this season with a 127-117 road win over the Pacers on Tuesday. Cleveland, favored by 8.5 points, covered the spread, and the game’s total of 244 points went over the line of 231.

A key 10-0 run turned the game in Cleveland’s favor, as they went from trailing 85-77 to leading 87-85. The Cavaliers then took control by outscoring the Pacers 38-28 in the 3rd quarter and held off Indiana in the 4th, where they started with a 100-89 lead.

Oklahoma City improved to 33-6 this season with a 118-102 win over the 76ers on Tuesday. The Thunder, favored by 16 points, pushed the spread with the victory. The game’s total points reached 220, slightly exceeding the 214-point line.

OKC started strong, going on an 11-0 run early, but the 76ers fought back, winning the 2nd and 3rd quarters. The Thunder led 87-81 going into the 4th and closed out the game by outscoring Philadelphia 31-21 in the final quarter.

The Historicals

Spanning across the last five head-to-head matchups, the Cavaliers and Thunder have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just -2 points per game. This has resulted in a 3-2 ATS record for Oklahoma City. Cleveland and Oklahoma City averaged a combined 226 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

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Analysis

Donovan Mitchell’s 35 points and nine rebounds helped the Cavaliers to a win over the Pacers, as he shot 52.2% from the field and hit three three-pointers. Darius Garland added 24 points, and Evan Mobley contributed 22 points and 13 rebounds, connecting on three threes at a 75% rate.

Mitchell scored 19 points in the 1st quarter, while Garland and Mobley each put up 13 points in the 4th. The Cavs made 15 threes, shooting 34.1% from deep and 48.3% overall.

Defensively, the Cavaliers gave up 117 points to the Pacers, who shot 48% from the field. Cleveland allowed 30 points in the 1st quarter and 31 in the 2nd, but they tightened up a bit in the 3rd and 4th, giving up 28 points in each.

The Cavaliers held the Pacers to 12 made threes, though Indiana shot 42% from deep. Cleveland sent the Pacers to the line 22 times, where they made 17 free throws. The Cavaliers finished with eight steals and six blocks in the game.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 32 points on 80% shooting led the Thunder to a win over the 76ers, with 14 of his points coming in the 1st quarter. Jalen Williams added 24 points, and Cason Wallace contributed 18, including 11 in the 4th quarter.

As a team, the Thunder shot 55.6% from the field, though they struggled from beyond the arc, hitting 12 threes at a rate of 33.3%.

The Thunder defense was strong in the 1st, 2nd, and 4th quarters, giving up just 21 points in each of those periods, helping them secure a 118-102 win over the 76ers. Oklahoma City allowed 38 points in the 3rd but still managed to hold Philadelphia to 102 points overall.

Oklahoma City limited the 76ers to 44% shooting from the field, including just 29% from three-point range, where Philadelphia made 13 threes. The Thunder also sent the 76ers to the line 20 times, where they made 15 free throws. Defensively, the Thunder recorded 10 steals and four blocks.

Betting Trends

  • In their last ten games away from home, the Cavaliers have a record of 7-3 while going 8-2 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 122 points per game in these contests.
  • When looking at their past three matchups at home, Oklahoma City has an ATS record of 2-0-1 while averaging 126 per game. The team went 3-0 overall in these games.
  • As the betting underdog, the Cavaliers have an ATS mark of just 6-4 in their last ten games. Cleveland posted a straight-up mark of 3-7 in these matchups.
  • Through their last five games as the favorite, the Thunder have an ATS record of 4-0-1 and a straight-up mark of 5-0.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Thunder recovered well from their loss to the Cavs 8 days ago, including a blowout win over the Knicks. Now, they get a chance to get some revenge against the Cavaliers. Cleveland did finally lose on Sunday vs the Pacers but bounced back with a win over them on Tuesday. Still, I like OKC to come out on top in this one, and cover the spread at -2.5.