Cavaliers vs. Heat Spread Pick 3/10/23

Cleveland Cavaliers (42-26 SU, 38-29-1 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (35-32 SU, 24-41-2 ATS)
When: Friday, March 10th, 8:00 PM (ET)
Where: Miami-Dade Arena, FL, Miami
TV: NBA

Point Spread: Cle -1.5/Mia +1.5 (Be smart! Bet your games at -105 instead of -110 at BAS Sportsbook! It’ll save you TONS of money!)
Total: 214.5
Money Line: Cavs -122/Heat +102

Notable Injuries

Cavaliers

Heat

• Kyle Lowry (Out) Knee
• Kevin Love (Probable) Rib

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Cleveland is 42-26 overall. When taking to the road, Cleveland has a mark of 14-19 and a win percentage of 42%. Currently, the team is 4th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 38-29-1 vs. the spread. In their matchup against Miami, the Cleveland Cavaliers have won 3 straight games. They will look to push that mark to 4 in a row.

In their preceding game, the Cavaliers overpowered the Heat, earning a 104-100 win as 1-point favorites. Darius Garland led the way for the Cavaliers, putting up 25 points on 50.0% shooting. The Cavaliers not only secured the victory but also covered the spread.

Heading into the game, Miami is 35-32 overall. When playing at home, Miami has a mark of 21-13 and a win percentage of 62%. Currently, the team is 7th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 24-41-2 vs. the spread. In Miami’s last five games, the Heat have a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 1-4 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 3-7 and 2-8 ATS.

Most recently, Miami lost to the Cavaliers by a score of 104-100. Jimmy Butler and his 28 points were not enough for the team to pull out a win as 1-point underdogs. The Heat also finished with an ATS loss in the game.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Cavaliers picked up the 113-87 win over the Heat. The Cavaliers’ margin of victory was enough to cover the spread as 7.5 point favorite. So far this season, the Cavaliers have a record of 2-1 vs. the Heat. The ATS record across the previous five head-to-head meetings is 3-2 in favor of the Cavaliers. In these matchups, Cleveland has averaged 104 points per game while allowing 99. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 1-4. Combined, they averaged 203 points in these games.

Analysis

This season, Cleveland averages just 111.9 points per game, placing them 25th in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA, at just 95.9 possessions per game. Cleveland comes into the game ranked just 22nd in 3-point attempts per game. So far, they have connected on 36.3% of their shots from deep, which places them 20th in the NBA. Defensively, the Cavaliers have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.67 points per game. So far, they have allowed a 3-point shooting percentage of 35.29%, placing them 16th in the NBA.

Donovan Mitchell is the top scorer for Cleveland, averaging 27.4 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 47.7%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Darius Garland, with an average of 22.0 points per game.

Miami is averaging just 108.3 points per game this season, which places them 30th in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 96.5 possessions per game. The Heat have been able to put together a strong offensive attack despite sitting just 28th in 3-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are among the league leaders in attempts at 34.5 attempts per game. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.57 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

Bam Adebayo is the top scorer for the Heat, with an average of 21.2 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 54.2%. Jimmy Butler is the team’s second-leading scorer, averaging 22.1 points per game.

Betting Trends

• The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
• The Heat are 10-26-1 ATS in their last 37 home games.
• The Heat are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Cavs are on a mini heater, winning four of their last five games, but I still don’t trust them on the road. I’m betting the Heat at +1.5. Do you participate in live betting? If so, have you seen the amazing live wagering platform at Bovada Sportsbook? It’s head and shoulders above the rest! All sports on one page, LOTS more options than the competition and FAST processing, unlike most clunky sites! Click here to check it out! They’re amazing!