Bulls vs. Raptors Point Spread, Analysis, Prediction

Chicago Bulls (40-42 SU, 42-40-0 ATS) vs. Toronto Raptors (41-41 SU, 42-39-1 ATS)
When: Wednesday, April 12th, 7:00 PM (ET)
Where: Scotiabank Arena, ON, Toronto
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Chi +5/Tor -5
Total: 213
Money Line: Chicago Bulls +177/-216

Notable Injuries

Bulls

• Lonzo Ball (Out) Knee
• Justin Lewis (Out) Knee

Raptors

• Otto Porter Jr. (Out) Foot

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Chicago is 40-42 overall. When taking to the road, Chicago has a mark of 18-23 and a win percentage of 44%. Currently, the team is 10th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 42-40-0 vs. the spread. In their matchup against Toronto, the Chicago Bulls have won 2 straight games and will look to push that mark to 3 in a row.

In their previous game, the Chicago team emerged victorious against the Pistons, winning by a margin of 8 points as predicted. Zach LaVine shone for the Bulls, scoring 17 points on a shooting percentage of 40.0%. The Bulls not only won the game but also successfully covered the spread.

Heading into the game, Toronto is 41-41 overall. When playing at home, Toronto has a mark of 27-14 and a win percentage of 66%. Currently, the team is 9th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 42-39-1 vs the spread. In Toronto’s last 5 games, the Raptors have a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 3-2 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 6-4 and 6-4 ATS.

In their last game, Toronto defeated the Bucks (121-105) as 3-point favorites. Gary Trent Jr. led the team with 23 points on 53.8% shooting. The Raptors also covered the spread with the victory.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Raptors picked up the 113-104 win over the Bulls. The Raptors’ margin of victory was enough to cover the spread as 4.0 point favorite. So far this season, the Raptors have a record of 2-1 vs the Bulls. Spanning across the last 5 head-to-head matchups, the Bulls and Raptors have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just 1 point per game. This has resulted in a 3-2 ATS record for Toronto. In these contests, they averaged a combined 217 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

Coming into the game, Chicago’s offense is ranked just 23rd in scoring at 113.1 points per game. This has come while being the 19th-ranked unit in pace. So far, the Bulls are averaging 98.9 possessions per contest. Chicago comes into the game ranked just 34th in 3-point attempts per game. So far, they have connected on 36.1% of their shots from deep, which places them 32nd in the NBA. On defense, the Bulls are allowing an average of 112.0 points per game, placing them 17th in the league. So far, teams have shot 36.4% on their looks from outside vs Chicago. This figure places them 23rd in 3-point shooting defense.

As the Bulls prepare for today’s game, Zach LaVine is their leading scorer, with an average of 24.8 points per game. This season, LaVine has a field goal percentage of 48.5%. The team’s second-leading scorer is DeMar DeRozan, who is averaging 24.5 points per game.

This season, Toronto is averaging just 112.9 points per game, which places them 25th in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 97.1 possessions per game. Toronto has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 29th in 3-point shooting percentage at 33.5%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 32.0 attempts per contest. Defensively, the Raptors have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 107.1 points per game. So far, they have allowed a 3-point shooting percentage of 35.34%, placing them 17th in the NBA.

As the Raptors prepare for today’s game, Pascal Siakam is their leading scorer with an average of 24.2 points per game. This season, Siakam has a field goal percentage of 48.0%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Fred VanVleet, who is averaging 19.3 points per game.

Betting Trends

• Bulls are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
• Bulls are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
• Raptors are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
• Raptors are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

I’d be blowing hot air up your gazoo if I told you I could figure out the 2023 Chicago Bulls. This team has good players. However, they’re as inconsistent as any team in the NBA. The variable I’m looking at in this game is the fact that the Raptors have been playing good at home lately. They’ve won their last four home games by 16, 14, 10 and 21. Keep in mind that when we get to the post-season, advantages become less every day. With that being said, my lean here is the Raptors -5.5.