Bulls vs. Clippers Point Spread Pick 3/27/23

Chicago Bulls (36-38 SU, 38-36-0 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (39-36 SU, 37-37-1 ATS)
When: Monday, March 27th, 10:30 PM (ET)
Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles
TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Chi +4.5/LAL -4.5
Total: 224.5
Money Line: Chicago Bulls +159/-195

Notable Injuries

Bulls

• Lonzo Ball (Out) Knee
• Javonte Green (Out) Knee
• Justin Lewis (Out) ACL

Clippers

• Kawhi Leonard (Probable) Face
• Paul George (Out) Knee
• Norman Powell (Out) Shoulder
• Brandon Boston Jr. (Out) Tailbone

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Chicago is 36-38 overall. When taking to the road, Chicago has a mark of 16-21 and a win percentage of 43%. Currently, the team is 10th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 38-36-0 vs. the spread. In their matchup against Los Angeles, the Chicago Bulls have won 2 straight games and will look to push that mark to 3 in a row.

In their upcoming game, Chicago will be looking to capitalize on their recent win over the Lakers. Zach LaVine led the way for the Bulls with 32 points. Despite being 5-point underdogs on the spread, the Bulls were able to secure an ATS win.

Heading into the game, Los Angeles is 39-36 overall. When playing at home, Los Angeles has a mark of 20-18 and a win percentage of 53%. Currently, the team is 5th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 37-37-1 vs. the spread. In Los Angeles’ last five games, the Clippers have a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 6-4 and 6-4 ATS.

Los Angeles most recently lost to the Pelicans by a score of 131-110. The team high 18 points from Bones Hyland was not enough to come home with the win. The Clippers were 4-point favorites going into the game.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Clippers picked up the 108-103 win over the Bulls. The Clippers margin of victory was enough to cover the spread as 3 point favorite. This has been the only matchup between the two teams this season. The level of competition has been tight in the five most recent games between the Bulls and Clippers, with just 2 points per game separating the teams. Chicago has the ATS edge in this span at 3-2. The over-under record in these same games is 3-2, with the teams combining for an average of 230 points per game.

Analysis

This year, the Chicago offense is not only near the NBA average in points at 113.4 points per game, but they are also playing at a pace similar to the league average. So far, the Bulls are ranked 17th in possessions per contest. Chicago heads into the game as one of the top 3-point shooting teams in terms of percentage. So far, they have hit 36.7% of their looks from deep. However, they are currently ranked just 30th in 3-point attempts per contest. On defense, the Bulls allow an average of 112.0 points per game, placing them 17th in the league. So far, teams have shot 36.4% on their looks from outside vs. Chicago. This figure places them 23rd in 3-point shooting defense.

Coming into today’s game, Zach LaVine is the leading scorer for Chicago at 25.1 points per game. This season, LaVine has a field goal percentage of 48.4%. The team’s second-leading scorer is DeMar DeRozan at 25.0 points per contest.

This season, Los Angeles averages just 112.8 points per game, placing them 23rd in the league. A significant reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 97.9 possessions per game. In terms of 3-point shooting, the Clippers are ranked 15th in attempts per game. However, they have been one of the more efficient shooting teams in the league, connecting at a rate of 37.8%. Defensively, the Clippers have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 108.39 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.31%.

A significant injury to take into account for today’s game is that Paul George will be missing from Los Angeles’s lineup, as reported on the injury report. Kawhi Leonard will need to assume the role of primary scorer for the team. This season, Leonard has been averaging 23.7 points per game for the Clippers.

Betting Trends

• The Bulls are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games.
• The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
• The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.
• The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing straight-up record.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Clippers may very well win this game straight up, but giving +5 to the Bulls is a bit much. I’m backing the underdog Bulls here.