Bulls at Bucks Betting Analysis & Spread Pick | Oct 25

Chicago Bulls (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)

When: Friday, October 25th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: CHSN

Point Spread: Chi +9.5/Mil -9.5

Total: 233.5

Money Line: Chicago Bulls +344/-437

Notable Injuries

Bulls

• Lonzo Ball (Out) Injury Management

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Knee
• Khris Middleton (Out) Ankle
• Brook Lopez (Probable) Quad

At 8:00 ET, the Milwaukee Bucks (-437) will host the Chicago Bulls (+344) at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. The Bucks are favored by 9.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 233.5 points.

This is a division matchup between the 1-0 Bucks and the 0-1 Bulls. The game will be televised on CHSN.

Recent Form

The Bulls dropped their season opener on Wednesday, falling 123-111 to the Pelicans on the road. Chicago is now 0-1 to start the season. Entering the game as +5 point underdogs, the Bulls not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 234, exceeding the pre-game O/U line of 225.5 by 8.5 points.

Chicago trailed 29-25 after the 1st quarter but bounced back in the 2nd, outscoring New Orleans 33-30. However, the Pelicans pulled away in the 3rd quarter, outscoring the Bulls 36-25. Chicago went into the 4th quarter down 95-83 and couldn’t make up the deficit, as both teams scored 28 points in the final period.

The Bucks opened their season with a 124-109 road win over the 76ers on Wednesday, moving to 1-0 on the year. Milwaukee, favored by 4 points, covered the spread with the 15-point win. The total score of 233 points went over the 222.5-point line by 10.5 points.

After a slow start, trailing 23-22 after the 1st quarter, the Bucks took control by outscoring the 76ers 36-24 in the 2nd quarter and 42-34 in the 3rd. They entered the 4th quarter with a 100-81 lead and held off a late push from the 76ers, who outscored them 28-24 in the final period.

The Historicals

Although the Bulls have the better ATS mark across the previous five head-head matchups at 3-2, the average scoring margin sits in favor of Milwaukee, as they averaged 116 points per game while allowing 109. A combined average of 225 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

Zach LaVine led the Bulls with 27 points, hitting five threes at a 62.5% clip in their loss to the Pelicans. He scored 16 points in the 2nd quarter. Nikola Vucevic added 21 points and 11 rebounds, with 8 points in the 3rd.

As a team, the Bulls shot 48.8% from the field but struggled from deep, hitting just 29.4% of their threes, making 10 in total. Jalen Smith contributed 15 points, with 8 in the 2nd quarter and seven more in the 4th.

Defensively, the Bulls struggled in the 3rd quarter, allowing 36 points, which contributed to their 123-111 loss to the Pelicans. Overall, Chicago gave up 123 points on 46% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Bulls allowed 14 threes on 37% shooting. They sent the Pelicans to the line 21 times, where they hit 19 free throws. Chicago grabbed 38 defensive rebounds, giving up seven offensive boards, and recorded four steals and two blocks.

Defensively, the Bucks were strong in the 1st and 2nd quarters, giving up just 23 and 24 points, respectively. They had a rough 3rd quarter, allowing 34 points, but tightened up in the 4th, giving up 28. Overall, they held the 76ers to 109 points on 41% shooting.

The Bucks excelled at defending the three, limiting the 76ers to just 8 made threes on 25% shooting. They sent Philadelphia to the line 27 times, where the 76ers made 19 free throws. Milwaukee also recorded nine blocks in the game.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past ten road matchups, Chicago has an ATS record of 5-5 while averaging 114 per game. The team went 4-6 overall in these games.
• In their last three games at home, the Bucks have a straight-up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 111 points per game in this stretch.
• Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Bulls have a straight-up record of 0-3. Their record vs. the spread in these games was 1-2.
• The last five games that Milwaukee was favored, they have an ATS mark of 2-3 while going 2-3 straight up.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Over the past few years, there have been times when the Bulls have played the Bucks tough and even pulled off some surprising upsets. However, DeMar DeRozan had usually been the player to give Milwaukee’s defense problems, and he is no longer with Chicago. With the way Damian Lillard looked to open the season, the Bucks should roll easy in this one. I’m taking the Bucks at -9.5 points.