Bucks vs. Suns Preview & Pick ATS for 2/6/24

Milwaukee Bucks (33-17 SU, 19-31 ATS) vs. Phoenix Suns (29-21 SU, 19-30 ATS)

When: Tuesday, February 6th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Footprint Center, AZ, Phoenix

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Mil +4.5/Pho -4.5

Total: 244.5

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks +145/-176

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Knee
• Brook Lopez (Questionable) Personal
• Damian Lillard (Questionable) Ankle
• Andre Jackson Jr. (Probable) Wrist

Suns

• Damion Lee (Out) Knee

At 10:00 ET, the Phoenix Suns (-176) will host the Milwaukee Bucks (+145) in a non-conference matchup. The Suns are 6th in the Western Conference, while the Bucks are 3rd in the East. TNT will have the TV coverage for this game.

Phoenix (-4.5) is favored at home, and the over/under line is set at 244.5. The Footprint Center in Phoenix will be the site of this game.

Recent Form

As the Bucks look to snap a four-game losing streak as underdogs, they are 4.5-point underdogs against the Suns. This season, Milwaukee has been the underdog in just four of their 50 games.

In terms of their ATS record, the Bucks are 19-31 overall and 9-15 ATS on the road. As the underdog, their ATS record is 1-3, and they have failed to cover the spread in their last three games as the underdog.

On the season, Milwaukee’s O/U record is 28-22, and the under has hit in their last four games. Today’s O/U line of 244.5 is slightly higher than their season average of 239.8.

In their most recent game, the Bucks lost to the Jazz by a score of 123-108. They were 2-point underdogs in that game and finished with an ATS loss. The O/U line for that game was 248.5.

Overall, the Bucks are 33-17 this season, which is good for 3rd place in the Eastern Conference. Against the West, they are 9-5 compared to 24-12 against the East.

The Suns have won three straight games at home and are favored by 4.5 points in today’s game vs. the Bucks. In the Western Conference, the Suns are currently in 6th place with a record of 29-21.

Phoenix’s ATS record at home this season is 7-17, and they are 19-30 overall. As the favorite, they are 13-23 vs. the spread and 24-13 straight-up.

On average, the Suns’ games have had a combined scoring total of 231.9 points, which is lower than today’s O/U line of 244.5. This season, their O/U record is 25-25.

In their last game, the Suns defeated the Wizards by a score of 140-112. The O/U line for that game was 241 points, and Phoenix covered the spread as 10.5-point favorites.

The Historicals

The level of competition has been tight in the 5 most recent games between Bucks and Suns, with just 1 point per game separating the teams. Milwaukee has the ATS edge in this span at 3-2. Milwaukee and Phoenix averaged a combined 223 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

Heading into tonight’s game, the Bucks are 2nd in the NBA in scoring at 123.7 points per game. They have been especially effective on the road, averaging 121.5 points per game away from home.

When it comes to pace, Milwaukee is 2nd in the league at 101.9 possessions per game. This has helped them get up a lot of shots, as they are 8th in the NBA in three-point attempts at 37.6 per game.

Overall, the Bucks are 4th in field goal percentage at 49%. They have been efficient from two-point range, hitting 58% of their attempts which is 2nd in the NBA. In terms of free throws, Milwaukee is 2nd in both makes and attempts.

So far, the Bucks’ defense is ranked 24th in the league at 119.9 points per contest. Inside the arc, the Bucks defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 54.7% and 34.7% from three-point territory.

When it comes to scoring, the Suns are 12th in the league at 117.3 points per game. At home, they are averaging 116.9 points compared to 117.8 on the road. So far, the Suns have outscored the NBA scoring average in 56.0% of their games.

Phoenix is one of the top shooting teams in the league, ranking 3rd in field goal percentage at 49%. They are also 3rd in true shooting percentage. In terms of pace, the Suns are 23rd at 98 possessions per game.

So far, the Suns are 5th in three-point shooting at 38%. However, they are just 21st in three-point makes and 25th in three-point attempts. Inside the arc, Phoenix is 5th in two-point shooting at 56%.

So far, the Suns’ defense is ranked 15th in the league at 114.6 points per contest. On two-point field goal attempts, the Suns’ defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 53.6% and allowing 36.8% from beyond the arc.

Betting Trends

• Through their last five road games, Milwaukee has an ATS record of just 1-4. However, their overall record was 2-3 while averaging 116 points per game.
• Phoenix has played well in their previous five home games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 122 points per game while allowing 115. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Bucks have a straight-up record of 0-10. Their record vs the spread in these games was 1-9.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Suns have a straight-up record of 7-3 and an ATS mark of 3-6-1.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Bucks are closing out their Western Conference road trip vs. a Suns team that has been inconsistent, but they are healthy and feature some of the best offensive players in basketball. And as it has been well documented, the Bucks have been a below-average defensive team all season long. I expect the Bucks’ struggle to continue and I like the Suns to win and cover the spread at -4.5 points.