Milwaukee Bucks (32-24 SU, 25-30 ATS) vs. Houston Rockets (35-22 SU, 30-27 ATS)

When: Tuesday, February 25th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Toyota Center, TX, Houston

TV: SCHN

Point Spread: Mil +4/Hou -4

Total: 226.5

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks +147/-175

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Calf
• Bobby Portis (Out) Suspension
• Pat Connaughton (Out) Calf
• Gary Trent Jr. (Probable) Knee

Rockets

• Cody Zeller (Out) Not With Team
• Fred VanVleet (Questionable) Ankle
• Dillon Brooks (Questionable) Illness
• Jae’Sean Tate (Questionable) Back

At 8:00 ET, the 35-22 Rockets (-175) will host the 32-24 Bucks (+147) at the Toyota Center. The over/under line for this non-conference matchup is 226.5 points.

Currently, Milwaukee is on a four-game win streak and sits fourth in the Eastern Conference, while Houston is fifth in the West. The Rockets are favored by four points.

Recent Form

With a 120-113 victory over the Heat on Sunday, the Bucks improved to 32-24 this season. Milwaukee was favored by 4.5 points and covered the spread, while the game’s total of 233 points exceeded the O/U line of 221.

After trailing 37-23 at the end of the 1st quarter, the Bucks chipped away at Miami’s lead, outscoring them 32-28 in the 2nd and 30-28 in the 3rd. Milwaukee took control in the 4th, going on a 12-0 run to turn a 95-90 deficit into a 102-95 lead, and finished the game strong by outscoring the Heat 35-20 in the final period.

The Rockets fell to 35-22 on the season after a 124-115 road loss to the Jazz on Saturday. Houston, who entered the game as -7.5 point favorites, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The total score of 239 points exceeded the O/U line of 227 by 12 points.

Houston appeared to be in control after a strong 2nd quarter, outscoring Utah 34-27. However, the Jazz rallied in the 4th, outscoring the Rockets 37-25 to seal the win.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed vs the spread in recent matchups, the Rockets have an ATS mark of 3-2. Yet, the Bucks have averaged more points per game in these contests, at 110 compared to Houston at 110. Milwaukee and Houston averaged a combined 216 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

Damian Lillard led the Bucks with 28 points and eight assists in their win over the Heat, hitting five threes at a 41.7% clip. Giannis Antetokounmpo added 23 points and 16 rebounds, shooting 61.1% from the field. Brook Lopez contributed 17 points, while Kyle Kuzma and Gary Trent each chipped in 16.

Milwaukee shot 51.2% from the field, making 14 threes at 35.9%. Lillard scored 11 points in the 2nd quarter and 8 in the 3rd, while Giannis added 9 in the 1st and another 8 in the 3rd. Kevin Porter scored 7 of his 11 points in the 4th quarter.

Despite giving up 37 points in the 1st quarter, the Bucks tightened up defensively, allowing just 28 points in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, and only 20 in the 4th, to secure the win. Overall, they allowed 113 points on 46% shooting from the field.

Milwaukee did an excellent job defending the three-point line, holding the Heat to just 9 made threes on 29% shooting. They also recorded 32 defensive rebounds, while allowing 10 offensive boards, and added four steals and three blocks.

In their 124-115 loss to the Jazz, the Rockets hit 17 threes at a 39.5% clip, with Jalen Green knocking down 6 of them at 50%. Overall, they shot 44% from the field.

Alperen Şengün led the way with 27 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists, while Jalen Green added 25 points and 10 assists. Amen Thompson contributed 22 points, hitting 66.7% from deep.

Defensively, the Rockets struggled in the 4th quarter, giving up 37 points in their 124-115 loss to the Jazz. Overall, they allowed Utah to shoot 50% from the field.

Houston did well defending the three, holding the Jazz to 32% shooting with 13 made threes. However, they allowed 16 offensive rebounds and finished with just three steals and two blocks.

Betting Trends

• In their last three games away from home, the Bucks have a straight up record of 2-1 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team averaged 105 points per game in this stretch.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Houston has an ATS record of 1-4 while averaging 109 per game. The team went 0-5 overall in these games.
• Milwaukee has done well both straight up and vs. the spread as the underdog, going 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five games.
• In their last five contests as the favorite, Houston has a poor record vs. the spread going 1-4. But, they still put together a straight-up mark of 3-2.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Milwaukee appears to have made some sneaky good moves at the trade deadline, as the additions of Kyle Kuzma and Kevin Porter Jr. have given this team a spark. Each player has the ability to score in spurts and has provided Milwaukee with some much-needed athleticism. Even with Giannis still being on a minute restriction, I think getting the Bucks at +4 is a great play for Tuesday night’s slate. I’m tempted to take them on the money line, but I feel real good about taking Milwaukee to cover (+4).