Bucks vs. Pacers Game 5 Betting Preview: Can Indiana Cover -8?

Milwaukee Bucks (48-34 SU, 43-41 ATS) vs. Indiana Pacers (50-32 SU, 40-44 ATS)

When: Tuesday, April 29th, 6:00 PM (ET)

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, IN, Indianapolis

TV: NBA

Point Spread: Mil +8/Ind -8

Total: 222.5

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks +274/-338

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Damian Lillard (Out) Achilles
• Tyler Smith (Doubtful) Ankle

Pacers

• Aaron Nesmith (Probable) Back
• Isaiah Jackson (Out) Achilles
• Bennedict Mathurin (Questionable) Abdomen

At 6:00 ET, the Pacers (-338) will host the Bucks (+274) in an Eastern Central Division matchup. Indiana (50-32) is favored by 8 points over Milwaukee (48-34). The over/under line for the game is 222.5 points.

This game will be played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis and can be seen on NBA TV.

Recent Form

The Bucks fell to 48-34 on the season after a 129-103 loss to the Pacers on Sunday. Milwaukee, who were -4 point favorites at home, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total score of 232 points went over the pre-game line of 226.5 by 5.5 points.

Milwaukee trailed 30-24 after the 1st quarter and 63-52 at halftime. They were down 101-84 going into the 4th quarter, where they were outscored 28-19.

With a 129-103 win over the Bucks on Sunday, the Pacers improved to 50-32 for the season. Indiana, who entered the game as +4 point underdogs, not only pulled off the road win but did so in dominant fashion, winning by 26 points.

Indiana took control early, leading 30-24 after the 1st quarter and 63-52 at halftime. They extended their lead to 101-84 by the end of the 3rd quarter and held the Bucks to just 19 points in the 4th. The game’s total of 232 points went over the pre-game line of 226.5.

The Historicals

The Pacers have had the better record vs the spread over the last five games, going 3-2. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 6 points per game. In these contests, they averaged a combined 228 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

In their 129-103 loss to the Pacers, the Bucks shot 41.6% from the field but connected on 40.5% of their threes, hitting 15 from deep. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 28 points and 15 rebounds, shooting 45% overall.

Kevin Porter Jr. added 23 points, making five threes at a 71.4% clip. Giannis scored 18 of his points in the 3rd quarter, while Porter added 12 in the 2nd and eight more in the 4th.

Defensively, the Bucks struggled against the Pacers, giving up 129 points on 60% shooting. They allowed 30 points in the 1st quarter, 33 in the 2nd, and a game-high 38 in the 3rd before holding Indiana to 28 in the 4th.

Milwaukee also had trouble defending the three, with the Pacers hitting 18 threes at a 46% clip. The Bucks sent Indiana to the line 13 times, where they made 11 free throws. Milwaukee finished with 24 defensive rebounds, allowing five offensive boards while recording six steals and one block.

The Pacers shot 60.2% from the field and knocked down 18 threes at a 46.2% clip in their 129-103 win over the Bucks. Myles Turner led the way with 23 points, while Andrew Nembhard added 20, hitting four threes at 50% efficiency.

Tyrese Haliburton contributed 17 points and 15 assists, connecting on two threes. Nembhard scored 9 points in the 4th quarter, and Jarace Walker added 6 of his 12 points in the final period.

Defensively, the Pacers held the Bucks to 103 points on Sunday, allowing 24 points in the 1st quarter and 28 in the 2nd. They gave up 32 points in the 3rd but tightened up in the 4th, allowing just 19 points.

Indiana limited Milwaukee to 41% shooting overall, though the Bucks hit 15 threes at a 40% clip. The Pacers sent the Bucks to the line 17 times, where they made 14 free throws. Indiana grabbed 36 defensive rebounds, allowing nine offensive boards, and recorded three steals and seven blocks.

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Bucks have a straight-up record of 6-4 while going 7-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 115 points per game in this stretch.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Indiana has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 118 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Bucks have a strong straight-up record of 3-2. In addition, their ATS record was 3-2 in these scenarios.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Pacers have a strong straight-up record of 3-0. In addition, their ATS record was 3-0 in these scenarios.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Bucks’ stretch of post-season bad luck continues, as Damian Lillard is out with a torn Achilles. Now, the Bucks are +8 point underdogs while facing elimination against a Pacers squad they have no answers for. Indiana has been excellent at moving the ball and passing up good shots for great shots, and nearly everyone in their rotation is playing their role perfectly. I see Indiana cruising to another easy win, and I like them to cover.