Bucks vs Pacers Game 1 Betting Pick – Point‑Spread Prediction

Milwaukee Bucks (48-34 SU, 42-38 ATS) vs. Indiana Pacers (50-32 SU, 37-43 ATS)

When: Saturday, April 19th, 1:00 PM (ET)

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, IN, Indianapolis

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Mil +6/Ind -6

Total: 224.5

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks +194/-232

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Damian Lillard (Out) Conditioning
• Tyler Smith (Out) Ankle

Pacers

• Isaiah Jackson (Out) Achilles
• Ben Sheppard (Probable) Toe

The Pacers (-232) are favored by 6 points over the Bucks (+194) in this Eastern Central Division matchup. The over/under line for this game is 224.5 points.

Milwaukee comes into this game on an 8-game winning streak and is 5th in the Eastern Conference at 48-34. Indiana is 4th in the East at 50-32.

Recent Form

The Bucks improved to 48-34 on the season with a 140-133 win over the Pistons on Sunday. Milwaukee, who were +8.5 point underdogs, not only won but also covered the spread. The game’s total points of 273.5 far exceeded the O/U line of 222.5.

Milwaukee went on an 11-0 run early, extending the score from 15-14 to 26-14. They led 43-25 after the 1st quarter, but Detroit fought back, outscoring the Bucks in each of the final three quarters. Milwaukee entered the 4th quarter with a 98-92 lead.

With a 126-118 win over the Cavaliers on Sunday, the Pacers improved to 50-32 for the season. Indiana, favored by 7 points, covered the spread with the win, and the game’s total of 244 points exceeded the O/U line of 226.

After falling behind 49-30 following an 11-0 run by Cleveland, Indiana rallied. They entered the 4th quarter down 85-67 but dominated the final period, outscoring the Cavs 38-20 to complete the comeback.

The Historicals

Through the last five matchups between the teams, Milwaukee has an ATS mark of 3-1-1. But, looking at the scoring margin in these games, an average of just 1 point per game separates the teams. The over-under record in these same games is 4-1, with the teams combining for an average of 233 points per game.

Analysis

In their 140-133 win over the Pistons, the Bucks shot 58.1% from the field and hit 23 threes at a 52.3% clip. Pat Connaughton led the way with 43 points, adding 11 rebounds and five assists, while Kyle Kuzma contributed 22 points, hitting five threes at 71.4%.

Kuzma scored all 22 of his points in the 1st quarter, while Connaughton added 13 in the opening period and 10 more in overtime. Tyler Smith added 20 points, including 8 in the 3rd and 6 in the 4th, and Pete Nance scored 8 of his 19 points in the final quarter.

Defensively, the Bucks struggled in the 3rd quarter, giving up 37 points, but they still managed to secure the win. Overall, they allowed 133 points on 47% shooting from the field by the Pistons.

From beyond the arc, the Bucks gave up 22 three-pointers on 37% shooting. They also sent the Pistons to the free-throw line 14 times, where they made 9. The Bucks recorded five steals and seven blocks in the game.

Despite shooting just 40.3% from the field and 23.8% from three, the Pacers managed to put up 126 points in their win over the Cavaliers. They hit 10 threes in the game, with Quenton Jackson leading the way, scoring 21 points and grabbing six rebounds.

Johnny Furphy added 15 points, while Tony Bradley contributed 14 points and 14 rebounds. Jackson scored 11 points in the 4th quarter, and RayJ Dennis added 7 points in the 2nd overtime period.

The Pacers’ defense tightened up in the 2nd half, allowing just 24 points in the 3rd quarter and 20 in the 4th, helping them secure the win over the Cavaliers. Overall, they gave up 118 points but held Cleveland to 38% shooting from the field.

Indiana struggled with the Cavaliers’ three-point shooting, giving up 18 made threes, but Cleveland shot just 30% from deep. The Pacers also sent the Cavaliers to the line 22 times, where they made 12 free throws. Defensively, Indiana recorded 15 steals and 10 blocks.

Betting Trends

• Across their last three road contests, Milwaukee has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 3-0 while averaging 119 points per game.
• Indiana has played well in their previous three home games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 120 points per game while allowing 123. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Bucks have gone 7-2-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 5-5.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Pacers have a straight-up record of 9-1. Their record vs the spread in these games was 3-7.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

This should be one of the more fun matchups of the first round, as there is a good rivalry taking place between these teams. Milwaukee gets a chance to avenge last year’s playoff loss to Indiana, where they did not have Giannis. Now, they have Giannis and are hoping to get back Damian Lillard soon. Even without Lillard for game 1, I see Milwaukee covering this line of +6.