Bucks vs. Pacers: ATS Prediction for Dec. 31 Clash

Milwaukee Bucks (16-14 SU, 12-17 ATS) vs. Indiana Pacers (16-17 SU, 14-18 ATS)

When: Tuesday, December 31st, 3:00 PM (ET)

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, IN, Indianapolis

TV: FDSI

Point Spread: Mil -1.5/Ind +1.5

Total: 230

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks -118/-101

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Questionable) Illness
• Khris Middleton (Probable) Ankle
• AJ Green (Probable) Calf

Pacers

• James Wiseman (Out) Achilles
• Obi Toppin (Questionable) Ankle
• Aaron Nesmith (Out) Ankle
• Isaiah Jackson (Out) Achilles

Today at 3:00 ET, the Pacers will host the Bucks in a Central Division matchup. Milwaukee is favored by 1.5 points and has a money line of -118. The over/under line is set at 230.

This game will be played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis and can be seen on FDSI. The Bucks are currently 6th in the Eastern Conference and 2nd in the Central Division with a record of 16-14. The Pacers are 8th in the East and 3rd in the Central at 16-17.

Recent Form

The Bucks fell to 16-14 on the season after a 116-111 road loss to the Bulls on Saturday. Milwaukee, favored by 2.5 points, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game came in at 227, just under the 231.5-point line.

Milwaukee trailed 33-25 after the 1st quarter but fought back to take an 84-83 lead going into the 4th. However, a 10-0 run by Chicago, which extended the score from 86-85 to 95-86, proved to be the turning point.

Indiana moved to 16-17 on the season with a 123-114 win over Boston on Sunday. The Pacers, who were +10.5 point underdogs, not only won but covered the spread. The total score of 237 points went over the line of 231.5.

After trailing 29-27 after the 1st quarter, Indiana took control with a 38-29 2nd quarter. They maintained their lead by matching Boston 33-33 in the 3rd and closed out the game by going on a 13-0 run, extending the score from 107-103 to 116-107.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Bucks hold the edge at 3-2. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just -1 points per game. The over-under record in these same games is 4-1, with the teams combining for an average of 229 points per game.

Analysis

In their 116-111 loss to the Bulls, the Bucks shot just 40.2% from the field and 33.3% from three, hitting 15 threes overall. Damian Lillard led the way with 29 points, 12 assists, and six rebounds, connecting on three threes at a 33.3% clip.

Brook Lopez added 22 points, making three threes despite shooting 27.3% from deep, while Khris Middleton contributed 21 points, hitting four threes at 66.7%. Lillard scored 11 points in the 4th quarter, with Lopez adding 7 in the final period.

Defensively, the Bucks had a strong 3rd quarter, giving up just 21 points, but they struggled in the 1st and 4th, allowing 33 points in each. Overall, Milwaukee gave up 116 points on 47% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Bucks allowed the Bulls to hit 14 threes at a 38% clip. Milwaukee sent Chicago to the line 17 times, where they made 12 free throws. The Bucks finished with six steals and seven blocks.

Tyrese Haliburton led the Pacers to a win over the Celtics with 31 points, seven assists, and six rebounds, shooting 57.9% from the field. Andrew Nembhard and Pascal Siakam each contributed 17 points, with Nembhard adding eight assists and eight rebounds.

Haliburton scored 12 points in the 3rd quarter, while Jarace Walker added 11 of his 12 points in the 2nd. The Pacers hit 52.9% of their shots, making nine threes at a 39.1% rate.

Despite giving up 114 points, the Pacers’ defense managed to hold the Celtics to just 23 points in the 4th quarter, helping them secure the win. Indiana allowed 29 points in both the 1st and 2nd quarters and 33 in the 3rd. Overall, the Celtics shot 46% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Pacers limited Boston to 16 made threes on 29% shooting. The Celtics also went 12/19 from the free-throw line. Indiana gave up eight offensive rebounds while collecting six steals and two blocks.

Betting Trends

• Across their five previous road games, Milwaukee has an ATS mark of 2-3. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 2-3, averaging 109 points per game.
• The Pacers are 2-1 ATS in their last three home games and 2-1 straight-up.
• Indiana has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five games.
• Going back to their last three games as the favorite, the Bucks have a straight up record of 1-2. But their mark vs the spread was just 1-2.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The key to this game is monitoring the health status of Giannis Anteokounmpo, as he has missed some time of late with an illness. Even if Giannis plays, the Pacers have given the Bucks a lot of problems going back to last season. I’d like Indiana to win and cover this afternoon.