Bucks vs. Nuggets Spread Bet for Jan 29

Milwaukee Bucks (32-14 SU, 18-28 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (32-15 SU, 19-26 ATS)

When: Monday, January 29th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver

TV: ALT

Point Spread: Mil +4/Den -4

Total: 239.5

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks +151/-185

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Illness

Nuggets

• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
• Julian Strawther (Out) Knee

At 9:00 ET, the Milwaukee Bucks will travel to Denver to take on the Nuggets. This non-conference matchup will be played at Ball Arena and can be seen on ALT.

The Nuggets are currently favored by 4.5 points and have a record of 32-15. They are 4th in the Western Conference and 3rd in the Northwest Division. As for the Bucks, they are 2nd in the Eastern Conference with a record of 32-14. The over/under line for this game is set at 239.5.

Recent Form

Today, the Bucks are looking to win their 3rd straight game on the road as they take on the Nuggets. Currently, their road record is 11-9, and they have an average scoring differential of +1.5 points per game.

In terms of their ATS record on the road, the Bucks are 8-12 for the season. Despite being the underdog in just two games, they are 0-2 straight-up as the underdog and 1-1 ATS as the underdog.

Milwaukee’s O/U record for the season is 28-18, and their games have averaged a combined 244.5 points. Today’s O/U line of 239.5 is right around their season average.

In their last game against the Pelicans, the Bucks won by a score of 141-117, easily covering the spread (-3.5). The O/U line for that game was 243 points.

The Bucks are currently 2nd in the Eastern Conference with a record of 32-14. In non-conference games, they are 8-2 compared to 24-12 against the East.

The Nuggets are currently favored by 4.5 points at home against the Bucks. This season, Denver has been favored in 42 of their 47 games and has a record of 30-12 as the favorite.

Denver’s ATS record is 19-26 for the season, and they have failed to cover the spread in their last two games at home. On average, they have outscored their opponents by 9.8 points per game at home.

In their last game, the Nuggets defeated the 76ers by a score of 111-105. Denver was favored by 13 points in that game and had an ATS record of 11-10 at home going into the game.

The O/U line for today’s game is 239.5, and the Nuggets have seen their last five games go under the posted total. On average, their games have finished with 226.1 points this season.

Denver’s win over Philadelphia improved their overall record to 32-15, which is currently 4th in the Western Conference. Against the West, they are 17-10 and 2-4 in their division.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings is 4-1 in favor of the Nuggets. In these matchups, Denver has averaged 120 points per game, while allowing 106. In these contests, they averaged a combined 226 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

When it comes to scoring, the Bucks are one of the most potent offenses in the NBA. They are currently 2nd in the league in points per game at 124.4. Interestingly, they are actually a better scoring team on the road, averaging 122.8 points per game compared to 125.6 at home.

Overall, Milwaukee has outscored the NBA scoring average in 78.3% of their games this season. They have been particularly efficient inside the arc, hitting 58% of their two-point attempts (2nd in the NBA).

From beyond the arc, the Bucks have been one of the top three-point shooting teams in the league. They are 5th in three-pointers made per game at 14.2, but their three-point shooting percentage is 8th at 37%.

So far, the Bucks defense is giving up 120.1 points per contest, which has them sitting 24th in the NBA. One thing to note, is they have given up more points than their season average in two straight matchups. Opponents are hitting 54.6% of their two-point field goal attempts this season, and they’re also connecting on 34.6% of their three-point attempts.

When playing at home, the Nuggets have been one of the most efficient offenses in the league, ranking 9th in scoring at 120.1 points per game. Overall, they are 17th in scoring at 115.1 points per game.

Denver has been one of the most efficient teams inside the arc, ranking 4th in two-point shooting at 56%. However, they have struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 37% of their three-point attempts.

On average, the Nuggets have attempted the 28th most three-pointers in the league (31.2 per game), while ranking 4th in two-point attempts. In terms of pace, Denver is the slowest team in the NBA at 96.1 possessions per game.

Currently, the Nuggets’ defense holds the 6th rank in the NBA, allowing 111.0 points per game. Denver’s defense is currently forcing 11.8 turnovers per game, which is 5th in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 16th in blocked shots, with an average of 5.3 rejections per game.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past ten road matchups, Milwaukee has an ATS record of 3-7 while averaging 123 per game. The team went 6-4 overall in these games.
• Across their ten previous home games, Denver has an ATS mark of 3-6-1. Their straight up record in these matchups was 7-3 while averaging 111 points per game.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Bucks have gone 2-7-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-9.
• The last ten games that Denver was favored, they have an ATS mark of 2-7-1 while going 7-3 straight up.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

There is no easing into things for Doc Rivers, as he is set to make his coaching debut for the Bucks with a matchup against the defending champs. Even if the Bucks get a bump in energy from having their new coach on the sidelines, I still don’t see it being enough in this one. I like Denver to win and cover at -4