Bucks vs. Mavericks: Expert ATS Pick & Game Prediction

Milwaukee Bucks (33-25 SU, 26-31 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (32-28 SU, 31-27 ATS)

When: Saturday, March 1st, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas

TV: KFAA

Point Spread: Mil -3/Dal +3

Total: 228.5

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks -143/+122

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Calf
• Damian Lillard (Probable) Hamstring
• Bobby Portis (Out) Suspension
• Pat Connaughton (Out) Calf
• Pete Nance (Out) Ankle

Mavericks

• Anthony Davis (Out) Adductor
• P.J. Washington (Questionable) Ankle
• Daniel Gafford (Out) Knee
• Caleb Martin (Out) Hip
• Dereck Lively II (Out) Ankle

At 8:30 ET, the Milwaukee Bucks (-143) will take on the Dallas Mavericks (+122) in a non-conference matchup. The Bucks are currently favored by 3 points, and the over/under line is set at 228.5.

This game will be played at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. The Bucks are 33-25 on the season and sit 4th in the Eastern Conference, while the Mavericks are 32-28 and currently hold the 8th seed in the Western Conference.

Recent Form

The Bucks improved to 33-25 this season with a 121-112 win over the Nuggets on Thursday. Milwaukee was +3.5 point underdogs at home but covered the spread with the victory.

After a 30-30 tie in the 1st quarter, the Bucks fell behind by 3 points in the 2nd. They responded by outscoring Denver 30-24 in the 3rd and 37-31 in the 4th to seal the win. The game’s total points of 233 fell short of the 241.5 O/U line.

The Mavericks improved to 32-28 on the season with a 103-96 win over the Hornets on Thursday. Dallas, who were -10.5 favorites, didn’t cover the spread, and the game’s total points of 199 fell short of the 219 O/U line.

Charlotte went on a 14-0 run early, but Dallas responded, holding the Hornets to 18 points in the 3rd quarter and outscoring them 30-29 in the 4th to seal the win.

The Historicals

The Bucks have had the better record vs the spread over the last five games, going 3-1-1. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 4 points per game. Over the course of these games, they averaged 236 points per game, leading a 3-2 over-under record.

Analysis

Giannis Antetokounmpo led the Bucks with 28 points and 19 rebounds in their win over the Nuggets, adding 9 points in both the 3rd and 4th quarters. Brook Lopez contributed 22 points, including 10 in the opening period, while Damian Lillard added 19 points, hitting three threes at a 50% rate.

The Bucks connected on 14 threes, shooting 41.2% from deep, though their overall field goal percentage was 46.7%. Gary Trent added 7 of his 15 points in the 4th quarter, and Kyle Kuzma scored 8 of his 16 points in the 2nd period.

The Bucks gave up 112 points but still managed to secure the win against the Nuggets. Their best defensive effort came in the 3rd quarter, where they allowed just 24 points. Overall, Milwaukee held Denver to 44% shooting from the field.

Milwaukee did an excellent job defending the three-point line, as the Nuggets shot just 26% from deep, making nine threes. The Bucks also sent Denver to the free-throw line 11 times, where they made 9. Defensively, Milwaukee recorded eight steals and four blocks.

Kyrie Irving led the Mavericks with 25 points, nine rebounds, and five assists in their win over the Hornets, scoring 9 points in both the 3rd and 4th quarters. Moses Brown contributed 20 points and 11 rebounds, while Klay Thompson added 18 points, hitting four threes at a 57.1% rate and also scoring 9 points in the final period.

As a team, the Mavericks shot just 41.2% from the field and 30.6% from three, making 11 threes overall. Despite their shooting struggles, they managed to put up 103 points in the victory.

The Mavericks put together a strong defensive performance, holding the Hornets to just 96 points on Thursday. Dallas was particularly effective in the 3rd quarter, where they allowed only 18 points. Overall, they limited Charlotte to 40% shooting from the field.

Dallas also did an excellent job defending the three-point line, as the Hornets managed just 7 made threes on 25% shooting. The Mavericks finished with 12 steals and seven blocked shots.

Betting Trends

• Across the Bucks last five road games, the team averaged 105 points per game while allowing 103. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 1-4 while going 3-2 straight-up.
• Across their last three home contests, Dallas has a 2-1 record vs. the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 1-2 while averaging 109 points per game.
• Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Mavericks have a straight-up record of 1-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 2-1.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Bucks have a straight-up record of 6-4. But their mark vs the spread was just 4-6.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Bucks are coming off what was their best win of the season so far, taking down the Nuggets on Thursday. Milwaukee has a tough schedule ahead, and they are going to need to take wins where they can if they hope to hold on to the 4th seed in the East. Antetokounmpo is slowly getting off his minutes restriction, and I see Milwaukee picking up a road win over a banged-up Mavericks team. I like Bucks -3.