Bucks vs. Lakers Predictions: Joe’s ATS Pick for Thursday Night

Milwaukee Bucks (38-30 SU, 31-35 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (43-25 SU, 39-28 ATS)

When: Thursday, March 20th, 10:30 PM (ET)

Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles

TV: SN-LA

Point Spread: Mil -3/LAL +3

Total: 225

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks -150/+127

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Knee
• Damian Lillard (Probable) Groin
• Bobby Portis (Out) Suspension
• Gary Trent Jr. (Probable) Patella
• Jericho Sims (Out) Thumb

Lakers

• LeBron James (Out) Groin
• Maxi Kleber (Out) Foot
• Rui Hachimura (Questionable) Knee
• Trey Jemison III (Questionable) Illness

At 10:30 ET, the Lakers will host the Bucks at Crypto.com Arena in a non-conference matchup. The Lakers are favored by 3 points and have won three straight games. The Bucks are on a two-game losing streak and are currently 5th in the Eastern Conference.

This game will be televised on SN-LA.

Recent Form

After a 104-93 loss to the Warriors on Tuesday, the Bucks are now 38-30 this season. Milwaukee, who were -1.5 point favorites, failed to cover the spread. The game’s total score of 197 points was well under the O/U line of 225.

Milwaukee’s 14-0 run turned the game from 62-49 to 76-49, but they couldn’t hold the lead. After outscoring the Warriors 32-20 in the 3rd quarter, they were outscored 26-17 in the 4th.

The Lakers improved to 43-25 on the season with a 120-108 win over the Nuggets on Wednesday. Playing at home, Los Angeles covered the -5.5 point spread, and the game’s total of 228 points went over the 224.5 line.

Los Angeles took control early with a 12-0 run, pushing their lead from 24-16 to 36-16. They outscored Denver 46-29 in the 1st quarter and 32-18 in the 3rd, going into the 4th with a 105-77 lead. The Nuggets made a late push, winning the 4th quarter 31-15, but the Lakers’ early dominance was enough for the win.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed vs the spread in recent matchups, the Lakers have an ATS mark of 3-2. Yet, the Bucks have averaged more points per game in these contests, at 123, compared to Los Angeles, at 123. A combined average of 242 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 4-1.

Analysis

The Bucks struggled offensively in their loss to the Warriors, shooting just 39.2% from the field and 31.6% from beyond the arc, hitting 12 threes. Kyle Kuzma led Milwaukee with 22 points, knocking down five threes at a 38.5% clip.

Giannis Antetokounmpo added 20 points, though he shot only 31.2%, while Brook Lopez and Damian Lillard each contributed 16 points. Lopez was efficient, shooting 70% from the floor and hitting two threes at 50%.

Defensively, the Bucks tightened up after a rough 1st quarter, where they gave up 32 points, allowing just 20 in the 3rd. Overall, they held the Warriors to 104 points on 41% shooting.

Milwaukee struggled with fouls, sending Golden State to the line 26 times, where they hit 23 free throws. The Bucks also allowed 17 threes on 38% shooting from deep.

Luka Dončić led the Lakers to a 120-108 win over the Nuggets, finishing with 31 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists, hitting four threes at 44.4%. Dončić scored 21 of his points in the 1st quarter. Austin Reaves added 22 points and eight assists, while Dorian Finney-Smith contributed 14 points, knocking down three threes at 75%.

The Lakers connected on 16 threes, shooting 42.1% from beyond the arc and 50.6% overall. Finney-Smith and Gabe Vincent each scored 6 points in the 1st quarter, with Vincent finishing with 12 points. Dalton Knecht also added 12 points, scoring 6 in the 2nd quarter.

Despite allowing 31 points in the 4th quarter, the Lakers’ defense held the Nuggets to 108 points in their win. Their best defensive effort came in the 3rd quarter, where they gave up just 18 points.

From beyond the arc, the Lakers limited the Nuggets to 13 threes on 33% shooting. They also sent Denver to the free-throw line 21 times, where the Nuggets made 13. Defensively, the Lakers recorded 13 steals and three blocks.

Betting Trends

• In their last three games away from home, the Bucks have a straight-up record of 1-2 while going 1-1-1 vs. the spread. The team averaged 111 points per game in this stretch.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, Los Angeles has an ATS record of 6-4 while averaging 117 per game. The team went 5-5 overall in these games.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Lakers have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 0-3.
• As the betting favorite, the Bucks have an ATS mark of just 6-4 in their last ten games. Milwaukee posted a straight-up mark of 7-3 in these matchups.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The news coming out of Milwaukee after their disappointing loss to the Warriors was that Doc Rivers had a meeting with Giannis and Damian Lillard to figure out where the team could improve. The Bucks took care of the Lakers last week at home, but aside from that, they haven’t played well. Now, they have to take on a Lakers squad that just beat the Nuggets last night. The Bucks are favored in this one, with LA playing on back-to-back nights. Even though the Lakers are playing well right now, I actually like the Bucks to cover.