Bucks vs. Knicks Predictions: Expert NBA Picks & Betting Preview

Milwaukee Bucks (20-16 SU, 15-20 ATS) vs. New York Knicks (25-14 SU, 20-19 ATS)

When: Sunday, January 12th, 3:00 PM (ET)

Where: Madison Square Garden, NY, New York

TV: MSG

Point Spread: Mil +4/NY -4

Total: 227.5

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks +141/-167

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Knee
• Khris Middleton (Probable) Ankle
• Damian Lillard (Probable) Calf
• Gary Trent Jr. (Questionable) Hip

Knicks

• Mitchell Robinson (Out) Ankle
• Miles McBride (Probable) Hamstring

At 3:00 ET, the Knicks (-167) will host the Bucks (+141) in an Eastern Conference matchup. New York (-4) is favored and has a record of 25-14, which is good for 3rd in the East. Milwaukee (20-16) is 4th in the East and has won three straight games.

This game will be played at Madison Square Garden and can be seen on MSG. The over/under line is set at 227.5 points.

Recent Form

The Bucks improved to 20-16 on the season with a 109-106 win over the Magic on Friday. Milwaukee was favored by six points but didn’t cover the spread, winning by just three. The game’s total points of 215 narrowly exceeded the over/under line of 212.

Orlando went on a 13-0 run early, but Milwaukee chipped away at the lead, outscoring the Magic 21-20 in the 2nd quarter. After falling behind 81-78 heading into the 4th, the Bucks rallied, outscoring Orlando 31-25 in the final period to secure the win.

The Knicks fell to 25-14 on the season after a 126-101 home loss to the Thunder on Friday. New York, who entered the game as +3.5 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread. The game’s total of 227 points narrowly exceeded the pre-game O/U line of 225.

The Thunder took control early with a 14-0 run, stretching the score from 22-17 to 31-17. New York struggled to keep pace, trailing 70-43 at halftime. Although they outscored the Thunder 27-24 in the 4th quarter, the Knicks were already down 102-74 heading into the final period.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Knicks hold the edge at 3-2. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just 0 points per game. The over-under record in these same games is 3-2, with the teams combining for an average of 240 points per game.

Analysis

Giannis Antetokounmpo powered the Bucks to a win over the Magic, scoring 41 points and grabbing 14 rebounds while shooting 65.5% from the field. Damian Lillard added 29 points, including 10 in the 4th quarter, despite shooting just 42.9% overall.

The Bucks hit only nine threes at a 36% clip but shot 51.8% from the field as a team. Giannis scored 15 points in the 3rd quarter and added another 10 in the 4th, while Bobby Portis contributed 6 of his 11 points in the final period.

The Bucks gave up 31 points in the 1st quarter but tightened up in the 2nd, allowing just 20 points. They allowed 30 points in the 3rd but held the Magic to 25 in the 4th, helping secure the win. Overall, Milwaukee allowed 106 points on 43% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Bucks held Orlando to 14 made threes on 35% shooting. The Magic also went 18/26 from the free-throw line. Defensively, Milwaukee recorded 10 steals and five blocks.

In their 126-101 loss to the Thunder, the Knicks struggled offensively, shooting just 38.5% from the field and hitting only four three-pointers at a 12.9% clip. Jalen Brunson led the way with 27 points and five assists, while Karl-Anthony Towns added 23 points and 10 rebounds, shooting 56.2% from the floor.

Josh Hart contributed 16 points and 13 rebounds, and Cameron Payne scored 9 of his 11 points in the 4th quarter. Towns also had a strong 3rd quarter, scoring 13 points, while Brunson added 8 points in both the 1st and 3rd quarters.

The Knicks struggled defensively on Friday, giving up 126 points to the Thunder. Oklahoma City scored 31 points in the 1st quarter and 39 in the 2nd, with the Knicks allowing 32 points in the 3rd. New York’s best defensive effort came in the 4th, where they gave up 24 points.

Overall, the Thunder shot 53% from the field, including 51% from three, hitting 14 threes. Oklahoma City also went 16/18 from the free-throw line. The Knicks allowed eight offensive rebounds while recording seven steals and three blocks.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Milwaukee has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 119 per game. The team went 3-0 overall in these games.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, New York has an ATS record of 5-5 while averaging 115 per game. The team went 8-2 overall in these games.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Bucks have gone 3-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 2-3.
• The Knicks have played well in their last five games as the betting favorite, going 3-2 straight up and 3-2 against the spread.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Milwaukee just picked up a really good road win over the Magic, while the Knicks really flopped vs the Thunder on Friday. But, I think this is a great matchup for New York, as they will be able to expose Damian Lillard on defense, and Karl-Anthony Towns’ ability to stretch the floor will cause problems defensively for the Bucks. I like the Knicks to cover at -4.