Bucks vs. Heat Spread Pick: TNT Showdown in Miami

Milwaukee Bucks (8-9 SU, 6-10 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS)

When: Tuesday, November 26th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: Kaseya Center, FL, Miami

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Mil +2.5/Mia -2.5

Total: 225

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks +114/-136

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Calf
• Khris Middleton (Out) Ankle
• Taurean Prince (Questionable) Illness
• MarJon Beauchamp (Probable) Hamstring
• AJ Johnson (Probable) Achilles

Heat

• Terry Rozier (Probable) Foot
• Dru Smith (Questionable) Knee

The Miami Heat (-136) are 2.5-point favorites against the Milwaukee Bucks (+114) in a matchup between two Eastern Conference teams. Miami is 7-7 on the season and has won two straight games, while the Bucks are 8-9 and have won four in a row.

This game will be played at the Kaseya Center in Miami and is scheduled to start at 7:30 ET. It can be seen on TNT.

Recent Form

On Saturday, November 23rd, the Bucks improved to 8-9 with a 125-119 home win over the Hornets. Milwaukee entered the game as -7.5 favorites but didn’t cover the spread. The total points of 244 exceeded the O/U line of 224 by 20 points.

Milwaukee took control by winning the 2nd quarter 31-23 and the 3rd quarter 37-34. They led 96-85 going into the 4th, but Charlotte went on a 10-0 run, narrowing the gap before the Bucks closed out the win.

The Heat moved to 7-7 on the season with a 123-118 win over the Mavericks on Sunday. Miami, playing at home, was favored by 2.5 points and covered the spread. The game’s total points of 241.5 exceeded the O/U line of 220.5 by 20.5 points.

A key moment came when Miami went on a 14-0 run, taking the score from 28-27 to 41-28. The Heat led 89-84 going into the 4th quarter, but Dallas outscored them 30-25 in the final period.

The Historicals

The Heat have had the better record vs the spread over the last five games, going 3-2. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 3 points per game. A combined average of 239 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 4-1.

Analysis

Giannis Antetokounmpo led the Bucks with 32 points and 11 rebounds, shooting 52.2% from the field in their win over the Hornets. Damian Lillard added 31 points, though he shot just 42.9%, hitting three threes at 33.3% efficiency.

Milwaukee connected on 18 threes, shooting 48.6% from deep. Gary Trent Jr. was a standout, making four threes at 80% efficiency and finishing with 16 points.

The Bucks put together a solid defensive effort in the 2nd quarter, holding the Hornets to 23 points, but they struggled in the 3rd and 4th, giving up 34 points in each. Despite the 119 points allowed, Milwaukee held Charlotte to 41% shooting overall.

From beyond the arc, the Hornets hit 19 threes at a 40% clip. The Bucks sent Charlotte to the line 21 times, where they made 18 free throws. Milwaukee also gave up 14 offensive rebounds while recording three steals and nine blocks.

Jimmy Butler led the Heat to a win over the Mavericks with 33 points, nine rebounds, and six assists, shooting 64.7% from the field. Bam Adebayo added 19 points and 11 rebounds, hitting three threes at 50%, while Tyler Herro contributed 18 points and ten rebounds despite shooting 32%.

Miami made 14 threes, shooting 34.1% from deep and 43% overall. Alec Burks scored 9 of his 15 points in the 4th quarter, and Pelle Larsson added 9 of his 14 points in the 3rd.

Defensively, the Heat were solid in the 2nd quarter, allowing just 23 points, but they struggled in the 3rd, giving up 33. Overall, they allowed 118 points but still managed to secure the win.

Miami held the Mavericks to 41% shooting, including just ten made threes on 25% shooting from beyond the arc. The Heat also recorded six steals and six blocks in the game.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past ten road matchups, Milwaukee has an ATS record of 3-7 while averaging 108 per game. The team went 1-9 overall in these games.
• Across the Heat’s last three home games, the team averaged 118 points per game while allowing 117. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-2, while going 1-2 straight-up.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Milwaukee has an ATS mark of 1-4 while going 0-5 straight up.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Heat have a strong straight up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Milwaukee has gotten itself into a much better place after a terrible start to the season. However, there are still some big issues with this team. Giannis brings it nearly every night, but Damian Lillard is a defensive liability, and we’ve seen him have some really inefficient nights. I’m taking Miami to win this one and cover at -2.5.