Bucks vs. Heat: NBA Betting Predictions | April 5

Milwaukee Bucks (42-34 SU, 37-37 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (35-42 SU, 37-39 ATS)

When: Saturday, April 5th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Kaseya Center, FL, Miami

TV: FDSS

Point Spread: Mil -2/Mia +2

Total: 215.5

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks -125/+105

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Foot
• Damian Lillard (Out) Calf
• Bobby Portis (Out) Suspension
• Jericho Sims (Out) Thumb
• AJ Green (Probable) Shoulder

Heat

• Kevin Love (Out) Personal
• Andrew Wiggins (Out) Hamstring
• Haywood Highsmith (Questionable) Achilles
• Tyler Herro (Questionable) Thigh
• Dru Smith (Out) Achilles
• Nikola Jović (Out) Hand

At 8:00 ET, the Milwaukee Bucks (-125) will take on the Miami Heat (+105) in an Eastern Conference matchup. The Bucks are currently favored by 2 points over the Heat, and the over/under line is set at 215.5.

This game will be played at the Kaseya Center in Miami and can be seen on FDSS.

Recent Form

Milwaukee improved to 42-34 on the season with a 126-113 road win over the 76ers on Thursday. The Bucks, who were favored by 11.5 points, covered the spread, and the game’s total of 239 points went over the 227.5-point line.

After falling behind 39-25 in the 1st quarter, Milwaukee responded with a 36-20 2nd quarter. They continued to build their lead, outscoring the 76ers 35-28 in the 3rd and 30-26 in the 4th.

Miami’s season record dropped to 35-42 after a 110-108 loss to the Grizzlies on Thursday. Despite being +5.5 point underdogs at home, the Heat kept it close, covering the spread. The total score of 218 points fell short of the 226-point line.

Miami led 27-22 after the 1st quarter, but Memphis took the 2nd quarter 27-23. Both teams scored 35 points in the 3rd, and Miami entered the 4th with a narrow 85-84 lead. However, the Grizzlies edged them out 26-23 in the final quarter.

The Historicals

In terms of betting, Milwaukee has an ATS record of 4-1 in the previous five matchups vs Miami. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +4 points per game in favor of the Bucks. Milwaukee and Miami averaged a combined 226 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

In their win over the 76ers, the Bucks shot 56.1% from the field and connected on 16 threes, hitting 51.6% from deep. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 35 points, 20 assists, and 17 rebounds, shooting 63.2% from the floor.

Brook Lopez added 17 points, while Kyle Kuzma chipped in 16. Giannis scored 12 points in the 2nd quarter and added 11 more in the 4th, while Kuzma contributed 9 points in the 3rd.

Despite a rough start, giving up 39 points in the 1st quarter, the Bucks tightened up defensively, allowing just 20 points in the 2nd quarter. They continued their solid play in the 2nd half, giving up 28 points in the 3rd and 26 in the 4th, holding the 76ers to 113 points in the game.

Milwaukee did a great job defending the three, limiting Philadelphia to 12 made threes on 30% shooting. The Bucks also sent the 76ers to the line 19 times, where they made 15 free throws. Defensively, the Bucks recorded 7 steals and 7 blocks.

In their 110-108 loss to the Grizzlies, the Heat shot 41.1% from the field but connected on 42.4% of their threes, hitting 14 from deep. Tyler Herro led the way with 35 points, nine rebounds, and four made threes at 57.1% efficiency.

Herro scored 19 of his points in the 3rd quarter, while Bam Adebayo added 12 of his 26 in the 1st. Kel’el Ware contributed 13 points and 15 rebounds, with 8 points coming in the 3rd.

Defensively, the Heat gave up 110 points to the Grizzlies, including a tough 3rd quarter where they allowed 35 points. Miami held Memphis to 22 points in the 1st quarter and 26 in the 4th.

The Grizzlies shot 47% overall and hit 16 threes at a 42% clip. The Heat sent Memphis to the line 17 times, where they made 14 free throws. Miami recorded 11 steals and eight blocks.

Betting Trends

• In their last five road games, Milwaukee has averaged 116 points per game while allowing 109. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 5-0 vs. the spread.
• When looking at their past three matchups at home, Miami has an ATS record of 3-0 while averaging 120 per game. The team went 3-0 overall in these games.
• Through their last five games as the betting underdog, the Heat have a strong record vs the spread, going 5-0. Their straight-up mark in these contests is 2-3.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Bucks have gone 6-4 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 6-4.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Bucks have found their footing a bit, picking up two straight wins, as they are still trying to figure out their rotation with Damian Lillard’s absence. Giannis has had to put the team on his back and came up with a monster performance vs the Sixers. As for the Heat, they need a win tonight to keep pace or overtake the Bulls for the nine seed in the East. Even though both teams are banged up, I give the edge to a Giannis-led Bucks team and am taking them to cover.