Bucks vs. Cavaliers Prediction: Joe’s Pick Against the Spread 12/20/24

Milwaukee Bucks (14-11 SU, 10-14 ATS) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (23-4 SU, 19-8 ATS)

When: Friday, December 20th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, OH, Cleveland

TV: NBA

Point Spread: Mil +9/Cle -9

Total: 223.5

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks +304/-388

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Patella
• Khris Middleton (Probable) Illness
• Damian Lillard (Out) Calf

Cavaliers

• Max Strus (Questionable) Ankle
• Isaac Okoro (Out) Shoulder

At 7:30 ET, the Milwaukee Bucks will travel to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers in an Eastern Central Division matchup. The Cavaliers are currently favored by 9 points, and the over/under line is set at 223.5.

Cleveland comes into this game with a record of 23-4, which is good for 1st in the Eastern Conference. They have won their last two games. On the other side, the Bucks are 14-11 and 5th in the East. They have won their last three games.

Recent Form

Milwaukee improved to 14-11 this season with a 110-102 win over the Hawks on Saturday. Playing at home, the Bucks covered the -3.5 point spread, while the game’s total of 212 points fell well short of the 233-point O/U line.

Milwaukee went on a 12-0 run early, taking the score from 28-27 to 39-28. After Atlanta outscored them 34-27 in the 3rd quarter, the Bucks responded by holding the Hawks to 19 points in the 4th while scoring 28 of their own to seal the win.

The Cavaliers improved to 23-4 on the season with a dominant 130-101 win over the Nets on Monday. Cleveland, favored by 10.5 points, covered the spread with ease. The game’s total of 231 points exceeded the over/under line of 215.5 by 15.5 points.

Cleveland took control early, going on a 16-0 run to extend the score from 17-15 to 31-17. They outscored the Nets 37-17 in the 1st quarter and 35-23 in the 2nd. Although Brooklyn won the 3rd quarter 37-32, Cleveland entered the 4th with a 104-77 lead and edged the Nets 26-24 in the final quarter.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous five head-to-head meetings is 3-2 in favor of the Cavaliers. In these matchups, Cleveland has averaged 118 points per game while allowing 109. A combined average of 227 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

In the Bucks’ 110-102 win over the Hawks, Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 32 points, 14 rebounds, and nine assists, shooting 66.7% from the field. Damian Lillard added 25 points, hitting five threes at 35.7%, despite shooting 38.1% overall.

Milwaukee connected on 14 threes, shooting 31.1% from deep and 45.3% overall. Giannis scored 10 points in the 4th quarter, while Lillard added 11 in the 3rd. Brook Lopez chipped in 7 of his 16 points in the final period.

The Bucks’ defense came up big in the 4th quarter, allowing just 19 points to secure a 110-102 win over the Hawks. They also had a strong 2nd quarter, giving up only 21 points. Overall, Milwaukee held Atlanta to 102 points on 42% shooting.

Milwaukee’s defense limited the Hawks to 10 made threes, though Atlanta shot 41% from beyond the arc. The Bucks sent the Hawks to the line 34 times, where they made 22 free throws. Defensively, the Bucks grabbed 41 rebounds, gave up seven offensive boards, and added eight steals and eight blocks.

In their 130-101 win over the Nets, the Cavaliers shot 53.1% from the field and connected on 19 three-pointers at a 40.4% clip. Evan Mobley led the way with 21 points, scoring 10 in the 3rd quarter and another 9 in the 4th.

Caris LeVert added 19 points, hitting six threes at 66.7%, with 9 points in the 1st quarter and 10 in the 2nd. Donovan Mitchell contributed 18 points, while Georges Niang chipped in 8 of his 17 points in the 3rd quarter.

The Cavaliers put together a strong defensive performance on Monday, holding the Nets to 101 points. Cleveland was especially effective in the 1st quarter, allowing just 17 points, and they gave up 24 points in the 4th to close out the win. Overall, the Cavaliers held Brooklyn to 42% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Cavaliers allowed 14 threes on 41% shooting. The Nets also went 19/24 from the free-throw line. Defensively, Cleveland recorded 14 steals and six blocks.

Betting Trends

• Across the Bucks’ last ten road games, the team averaged 108 points per game while allowing 113. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 4-6 while going 3-7 straight-up.
• In their last three home games, Cleveland has averaged 119 points per game while allowing 108. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Bucks have a straight-up record of 2-8. But, their mark vs. the spread was just 5-5.
• Through their last three matchups as the betting favorite, the Cavaliers have a good straight-up record, but their ATS mark is just 1-2.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Milwaukee is fresh off claiming an NBA cup title with a big win over the Thunder. However, they find themselves as +9 point underdogs vs the Cavs. A key reason why they are such big underdogs is that Damian Lillard is already out with a calf injury. I’m counting on a bit of a dropoff for the Bucks tonight, and I’d like the Cavs to make a statement as to why they are at the top of the Eastern Conference. I like Cleveland -9.