Bucks vs. Kings: Point Spread Analysis & Betting Trends

Milwaukee Bucks (39-30 SU, 32-35 ATS) vs. Sacramento Kings (35-34 SU, 30-38 ATS)

When: Saturday, March 22nd, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Golden 1 Center, CA, Sacramento

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Mil +1/Sac -1

Total: 227.5

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks +101/-121

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Knee
• Damian Lillard (Out) Groin
• Bobby Portis (Out) Suspension
• Gary Trent Jr. (Probable) Left Knee
• Jericho Sims (Out) Thumb

Kings

• Domantas Sabonis (Out) Ankle

At 10:00 ET, the Sacramento Kings (-121) will host the Milwaukee Bucks (+101) in a non-conference matchup. The Kings (-1) are favored by 1 point and the over/under line is 227.5 points.

Right now, the Bucks are 5th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 39-30, while the Kings are 9th in the West at 35-34.

Recent Form

The Bucks improved to 39-30 this season with a dominant 118-89 win over the Lakers on Thursday. Milwaukee, favored by -8.5, covered the spread with the victory. The total points for the game were 207, which was 10 points under the O/U line of 217.

A key moment came when the Bucks went on a 16-0 run, turning a 17-14 lead into 30-17. After a 34-19 first quarter, the Lakers fought back in the 2nd, outscoring the Bucks 27-23. However, Milwaukee regained control in the 3rd, winning the quarter 34-23, and entered the 4th with a 91-69 lead, closing out the game by outscoring the Lakers 27-20 in the final period.

The Kings fell to 35-34 on the season after a 128-116 home loss to the Bulls on Thursday. Sacramento, who entered the game as 7.5-point favorites, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total points of 244.5 exceeded the pre-game over/under line of 236.5.

After leading 39-28 after the 1st quarter, the Kings struggled, particularly in the 3rd, where Chicago went on an 11-0 run. Sacramento trailed 92-89 heading into the 4th but were outscored 36-27 in the final period.

The Historicals

Through the last five matchups between the teams, Milwaukee has an ATS mark of 3-2. But, looking at the scoring margin in these games, an average of just 1 points per game separates the teams. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 4-1. Combined, they averaged 249 points in these games.

Analysis

Giannis Antetokounmpo led the Bucks to a win over the Lakers, scoring 28 points and grabbing seven rebounds, shooting 60% from the field. Gary Trent Jr. also shot 60%, hitting six threes at 60% efficiency, finishing with 23 points. Kyle Kuzma contributed 20 points, shooting 56.2%.

Milwaukee’s overall shooting was 47.6%, with a below-average 31.4% from three, making just 11 threes. Giannis scored 15 points in the 3rd quarter, while Trent added 9 in the same period.

The Bucks put on a defensive clinic against the Lakers, holding them to just 89 points on Thursday. Milwaukee’s defense was strong throughout, allowing 19 points in the 1st quarter and 20 in the 4th. The Lakers shot 41% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Lakers made 11 threes at a 34% rate. The Bucks sent them to the line 16 times, where they hit 10 free throws. Milwaukee also came up with 12 steals and four blocks.

In their 128-116 loss to the Bulls, the Kings shot 47.7% from the field and connected on 15 threes at a 38.5% clip. Malik Monk led the way with 34 points, hitting five threes at 50% efficiency while adding five assists.

DeMar DeRozan and Trey Lyles each contributed 22 points, with Lyles knocking down four threes at 57.1%. Monk scored 15 points in the 1st quarter and added 8 more in the 4th.

The Kings struggled defensively in the 2nd half, giving up 37 points in the 3rd quarter and 36 in the 4th, leading to a 128-116 loss to the Bulls. Sacramento allowed Chicago to shoot 52% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Bulls hit 15 threes at a 42% clip. The Kings sent Chicago to the line 26 times, where they converted 23 free throws. Sacramento finished with 27 defensive rebounds, four steals, and five blocks.

Betting Trends

• In their last five road games, Milwaukee has averaged 116 points per game while allowing 109. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 3-1-1 vs. the spread.
• Across the Kings last three home games, the team averaged 106 points per game while allowing 121. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 1-2 while going 0-3 straight-up.
• The last ten games that Milwaukee was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 4-5-1 while going 4-6 straight up.
• As the betting favorite, the Kings have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight-up record was 2-1.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The spread for this matchup sits at -1 in favor of the Kings, who are without Domantas Sabonis but are taking on a Buck team that won’t have Damian Lillard. This is a chance for Kevin Porter Jr. to get some more opportunities for Milwaukee, and even though he hasn’t been consistent, he has shown he is able to put up some big numbers in spurts. Yet, I don’t think Milwaukee will have enough to come out on top, and I like Sacramento to win and cover.