Boston Celtics vs. Oklahoma City Thunder: Spread Prediction & Analysis

Boston Celtics (26-9 SU, 14-20 ATS) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (29-5 SU, 22-11 ATS)

When: Sunday, January 5th, 3:30 PM (ET)

Where: Paycom Center, OK, Oklahoma City

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Bos +2/OKC -2

Total: 221.5

Money Line: Boston Celtics +106/-125

Notable Injuries

Celtics

• Jaylen Brown (Questionable) Shoulder

Thunder

• Alex Caruso (Out) Hip
• Chet Holmgren (Out) Hip
• Nikola Topic (Out) Knee
• Ajay Mitchell (Out) Toe

At 3:30 ET, the Thunder (-125) will host the Celtics (+106) in a non-conference matchup. The Thunder are favored by 2 points and have a 14-game win streak. The Celtics are 26-9 and have won 3 straight.

This game will be played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 29-5 and are first in the Western Conference. The Celtics are 2nd in the East and first in the Atlantic Division. The over/under line for this game is 221.5.

Recent Form

The Celtics improved to 26-9 with a 109-86 win over the Rockets on Friday. Boston, favored by 3.5 points, covered the spread with the victory. The total score of 195 points fell well short of the 220.5-point over/under line.

Boston went on a 10-0 run early, extending their lead from 15-14 to 25-14. They outscored Houston 27-14 in the 4th quarter to seal the win.

The Thunder improved to 29-5 on the season with a 117-107 win over the Knicks on Friday. Oklahoma City covered the spread as 4-point favorites, and the game’s total of 224 points narrowly missed the over/under line of 224.5.

After a rough 2nd quarter where the Knicks outscored them 36-21, the Thunder went on a 10-0 run to close the gap. They dominated the 4th quarter, outscoring New York 37-19 to seal the win.

The Historicals

Spanning across the last five head-to-head matchups, the Celtics and Thunder have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just 2 points per game. This has resulted in a 4-1 ATS record for Oklahoma City. Over the course of these games, they averaged 250 points per game, leading a 5-0 over-under record.

Analysis

The Celtics shot 50.6% from the field and connected on 19 threes at a 48.7% clip in their win over the Rockets. Derrick White led the way with 23 points, hitting six threes, while Payton Pritchard and Jayson Tatum each added 20 points, with Pritchard shooting 80% from the field and making four threes at 66.7%.

White scored 6 points in 3 different quarters, while Pritchard had 10 points in the 1st quarter. Jrue Holiday also had a strong opening period, scoring 12 of his 14 points in the 1st.

After a shaky start, the Celtics’ defense clamped down, allowing just 55 points over the final three quarters to secure a win over the Rockets. Boston gave up 31 points in the 1st but tightened up, holding Houston to 25 in the 2nd, 16 in the 3rd, and just 14 in the 4th.

The Celtics held the Rockets to 36% shooting, including 27% from beyond the arc, where Houston made just 10 threes. Boston also recorded six steals and eight blocks.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder to a win over the Knicks, scoring 33 points and adding seven assists. Jalen Williams contributed 20 points, while Aaron Wiggins added 19, shooting 77.8% from the field and hitting four threes at 66.7% efficiency.

The Thunder shot 51.2% from the field, with a 51.9% success rate from beyond the arc, making 14 threes. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 14 points in the 1st quarter, and Wiggins added 15 in the 4th.

Despite giving up 66 points in the 1st and 2nd quarters, the Thunder’s defense tightened up in the 2nd half, allowing just 22 points in the 3rd and 19 in the 4th, leading to a 117-107 win over the Knicks. Oklahoma City held New York to 28% shooting from beyond the arc, with the Knicks making just nine threes.

The Thunder sent the Knicks to the line 17 times, where they converted 12 free throws. Oklahoma City finished with 34 defensive rebounds, allowing 11 offensive boards while also recording nine steals and seven blocks.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past ten road matchups, Boston has an ATS record of 4-5-1 while averaging 117 per game. The team went 8-2 overall in these games.
• The Thunder are 3-2 ATS in their last home games and 5-0 straight-up.
• In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Celtics have a straight-up record of 1-2 and an ATS mark of 1-2.
• Through their last five games as the favorite, the Thunder have an ATS record of 4-1 and a straight up mark of 5-0.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

This is one of the best regular season matchups we have seen all season, as the Celtics head to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder. The odds are currently sitting with OKC favored by -2 as they look to extend their 14-game win streak. I see the Thunder coming out firing on all cylinders as they add another signature win to their resume. I have the Thunder winning and covering the spread.