Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers Game 3 ATS Pick

Boston Celtics (64-18 SU, 48-42 ATS) vs. Indiana Pacers (47-35 SU, 52-43 ATS)

When: Saturday, May 25th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, IN, Indianapolis

TV: ABC

Point Spread: Bos -7/Ind +7

Total: 222.5

Money Line: Boston Celtics -274/+220

Notable Injuries

Celtics

• Kristaps Porzingis (Out) Calf
• Luke Kornet (Doubtful) Wrist

Pacers

• Tyrese Haliburton (Questionable) Hamstring
• Bennedict Mathurin (Out) Shoulder

Heading into game three of the Eastern Conference Finals, the top-seeded Celtics lead the 6th-seeded Pacers 2-0. The game is set to tip off at 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, May 25th, and will be televised on ABC. The Celtics are favored by -7 points, and the over/under is 222.5 points.

Boston was the home team in the most recent game of this Pacers vs. Celtics series, and they came out on top by a final of 126-110. The Celtics were favored by 8.5 points heading into the game and easily covered the spread. Boston’s defense stepped up in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, as they outscored the Pacers 32-24 in the 2nd and 36-29 in the 3rd. Heading into the game, the over/under line was at 225.5 points, and the teams surpassed that by 10.5 points.

Offensively, the Celtics shot 53.4% from the field and knocked down 15 threes. Jaylen Brown had a big game for Boston, finishing with 40 points. He also hit four threes and shot 40% from beyond the arc. Pascal Siakam led the Pacers with 28 points.

Recent Form

The Celtics have been the favorite in 90 of their 82 games this season and are favored by 7 points today. As the favorite, they have gone 72-18 straight up and 46-40 against the spread.

Boston’s O/U record for the season is 50-43-1, and the over has hit in their last four games. On average, their games have finished with 227.5 points, compared to today’s line of 222.5.

In their most recent game against the Pacers, the Celtics won 126-110. They were also favored by 8.5 points in that game. The combined scoring in that game was 236, and the O/U line was 225.5.

The Celtics are currently in 1st place in the Eastern Conference with a record of 64-18. In games against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 41-11 and 23-7 against the West.

On the road, the Celtics have a straight-up record of 31-14 and are 22-21 vs. the spread. Their ATS record for the season is 48-42.

Indiana has lost two straight games as the underdog and is currently a 7-point underdog at home against the Celtics. The Pacers’ ATS record as the underdog is 27-17 compared to 25-26 as the favorite.

This season, the Pacers have gone 53-44 on the over/under, and the over has hit in their last four games. On average, their games have finished with 241.2 points, compared to today’s O/U line of 222.5.

In their most recent game against the Celtics, the Pacers lost by a score of 126-110. The combined scoring total in that game was 236 points, and the O/U line was 225.5.

Indiana’s record of 47-35 has them in 6th place in the Eastern Conference. Against other teams in the East, they are 32-20 and 11-6 against Central Division opponents. At home, the Pacers are 32-15 compared to 23-27 on the road.

This season, the Pacers have an ATS record of 52-43, including going 26-20 ATS at home. Currently, they are in 3rd place in the Central Division.

The Historicals

Although the Pacers have the better ATS mark across the previous 5 head-head matchups at 3-2, the average scoring margin sits in favor of Boston, as they averaged 127 points per game while allowing 119. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 4-1. Combined, they averaged 246 points in these games.

Analysis

For the season, the Celtics lead the league in three-point shooting, at 38%, and are also the top three-point shooting team, in terms of three-pointers made, at 16.5 per game. Overall, they are averaging 120.6 points per game, which is the 2nd best mark in the league. Looking at their production on the road, the Celtics are averaging 116.9 points per contest, which is the 3rd best mark in the NBA.

Jayson Tatum is averaging 30 points and 10.4 rebounds over his last five games. In this stretch, he also averaged 5.8 assists. Jaylen Brown has hit 43.5% of his threes in his last five games while averaging 26.4 points per game. Jrue Holiday is averaging 18 points and 6.4 assists in his last five games while hitting 53.6% of his threes.

When it comes to defense, the Boston Celtics have been one of the best in the league. They are currently ranked 3rd in the NBA in points allowed, giving up just 108.1 points per game. On the road, they have been just as stingy, allowing 108.9 points per contest.

One of the reasons Boston has been so effective on defense is their ability to contest shots. They are 3rd in the NBA in blocked shots, swatting away 6.6 shots per game. Additionally, they have been able to limit opponents’ field goal percentage, holding them to just 45.5% shooting from the floor.

One area where the Celtics have been particularly strong on defense is at the free-throw line. They are currently the top-ranked team in the league in made free throws allowed per game, giving up just 16.7 made free throws per contest.

Indiana comes into the game as the NBA’s top-scoring offense, at 123.3 points per game. They have been even better at home this season, averaging 124.7 points per contest. The Pacers are also one of the faster-paced teams in the league, averaging 101.2 possessions per game.

Looking at Pascal Siakam’s last five games, he is averaging 23.8 points while shooting 56% from the field and 50% from beyond the arc. Myles Turner has hit 58.5% of his shots in his last five games and 57.1% of his threes for an average of 16.2 points. Siakam is averaging 21.7 points for the year, followed by Tyrese Haliburton at 20.1 points per game.

When it comes to defense, the Pacers have had their struggles this season. They are currently 27th in points allowed per game at 119.2. However, they have been able to limit opponents from beyond the arc, ranking 1st in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 36.6%. In terms of rebounds, Indiana is 28th in the league at 41.5 per game.

One area where the Pacers have excelled is in terms of blocked shots, where they rank 8th at 5.9 per game. Despite their struggles on defense, Indiana has been able to limit opposing offenses to fewer three-point attempts than any other team in the league at 29.9 per game.

Betting Trends

• The Celtics are 2-1 ATS in their three last road games and 3-0 straight-up.
• Across their ten previous home games, Indiana has an ATS mark of 4-6. Their straight up record in these matchups was 2-8 while averaging 112 points per game.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Pacers have a straight up record of 3-7 and an ATS mark of 5-5.
• Against the spread, the Celtics have put together of 2-3 in their last five games as the betting favorite. In these same games, they went 5-0 straight up.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

If the Pacers are going to have any chance in this series, then they have to come up with a win in game three. However, even at home, they are 7-point underdogs. Throughout this post-season, the Pacers have yet to lose at home, and we have seen them looking really good offensively on their home floor. For game three, I like Indiana +7.