Boston Celtics vs. Denver Nuggets Picks & Analysis

Boston Celtics (43-28 SU, 35-33-3 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (42-29 SU, 33-38-0 ATS)
When: Sunday March 20 2022, 08:00 PM (ET)
Where: Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado
TV: NBCSB

Point Spread: BOS -3/DEN +3 (Opened BOS -2.5 at BetNow)
Total: 221.5 (Opened at 218.5)
Money Line: Boston -141/Denver 118
Power Rating: BOS -3

Probable Starting Lineups

Boston Celtics PG Marcus Smart, SG Jaylen Brown, SF Jayson Tatum, PF Al Horford, C Robert Williams
Denver Nuggets PG Monte Morris, SG Will Barton, SF Aaron Gordon, PF Jeff Green, C Nikola Jokic

Key Injuries

Boston Celtics Aaron Nesmith: Ankle (OUT)

Denver Nuggets Zeke Nnaji: Knee (OUT) Michael Porter Jr.: Back (OUT) Vlatko Cancar: Foot (OUT)

The Denver Nuggets host the Boston Celtics in a Non-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 08:00 PM ET at the Ball Arena.

Recent Form

The Boston Celtics come into this game with an overall record of 43-28, placing them 4th in the Eastern Conference. So far, Boston is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 19-16. Over their last five games, the Celtics have played well, picking up 4 wins. In this stretch, Boston’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 111.0 points per game. Combined, the Celtics’ last five opponents are giving up 110.0 points per contest. Boston comes into this game also playing well defensively, holding their opponents to just 97.0 points per game. An improvement on their season average of 103.6. In the Boston Celtics’ most recent game, Boston took down Sacramento by a score of 126-97

The Denver Nuggets come into this game with an overall record of 42-29, placing them 6th in the Western Conference. So far, Denver is above .500 at home, holding a record of 20-13. Over the Nuggets’ last five games, they have picked up just 2 wins. During this stretch, Denver is averaging 115.0 points per game, 4.0 points more than their season average of 111.4. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 107.0 points per contest. A key reason for the Nuggets’ recent struggles is a defensive unit giving up 116.0 points over their last five contests. This figure is up from their season average of 108.7. In the Denver Nuggets’ most recent game, the team fell to Cleveland by a score of 119-116.

Individual Player Analysis

As Boston travels to take on the Denver Nuggets, the Celtics’ leading scorer is Jayson Tatum. Through 66 games, Tatum is averaging 26 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 47.0% of his games. Against the Nuggets, Tatum will need to be on top of his game as Denver is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their average in 27.0% of their games, placing them in the top 10. On the other side, Nikola Jokic leads the Nuggets in scoring, averaging 26 points across his 64 games. Throughout the season, Jokic has outscored his season average in 42.0% of his outings. On the season, the Celtics have allowed their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 50.0% of their games, giving them a rank of 16th among NBA defenses.

Matchup Analysis

The Nuggets come into this game as the more efficient offensive team, averaging 110.4 points per 100 possessions. When playing as the superior offensive unit, Denver is winning at a rate of 68%. These wins are coming by an average margin of 14.0 points. On the other side, the Celtics hold the advantage on the defensive end of the floor. So far, they have played 34 games as the better defensive team, picking up 18 wins.

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets have met up for one games. Boston took game one by a score of 108-102.

How the Public is Betting the Celtics vs Nuggets

67% are betting the Celtics against the spread.
52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 221.5

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

• Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
• Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

When looking at the Celtics and Nuggets ATS records, Boston comes into this game with the better record vs the spread. In addition, the Celtics are an above .500 ATS team on the road, going 20-14. On the other side, Denver is just 13-20 vs the spread at home. With the Celtics coming into this game as three-point favorites, I like the visitors to pick up the win and cover the spread. Throughout the season, Denver has relied on their offense to lead them to wins. However, the Celtics are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Look for Boston to cover.