Boston Celtics vs. Denver Nuggets Best Bet for March 7

Boston Celtics (48-13 SU, 29-29 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (42-20 SU, 27-33 ATS)

When: Thursday, March 7th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Bos -1/Den +1

Total: 221.5

Money Line: Boston Celtics -114/-106

Notable Injuries

Celtics

• Jaylen Brown (Questionable) Pelvis
• Neemias Queta (Out) Right Knee

Nuggets

• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee

At 10:00 ET, the 1st place Celtics (-114) will travel to Denver to take on the 3rd place Nuggets (-106). The over/under line for this non-conference matchup is currently sitting at 221.5.

This game will be played at Ball Arena and will be televised on TNT.

Recent Form

The Celtics are the favorites today against the Nuggets with a point spread of -1. This season, Boston has been favored in 58 of their 61 games, going 46-12 as the favorite. As the favorite, they have an average scoring margin of +11.8 points per game.

In terms of their ATS record, the Celtics are 29-29 for the season and 12-15 on the road. Despite being favored in most games, they are 27-28 vs. the spread as the favorite.

In their last game, the Celtics lost to the Cavaliers by a score of 105-104. The O/U line for that game was 217.5, and Boston was favored by 8.5 points. This dropped their overall record to 48-13, but they still hold the top spot in the Eastern Conference.

This season, the Celtics have an O/U record of 29-32, and the under has hit in their last two games. On average, their games have finished with 230.8 points, which is higher than today’s line of 221.5.

In non-conference games, the Celtics are 15-6 compared to 33-7 against the Eastern Conference. On the road, they have a record of 19-10.

Today, the Nuggets are 1-point underdogs at home against the Celtics. As the underdog this season, Denver is 3-6 straight-up and 4-5 against the spread. In games where they have been favored, the Nuggets are 39-14 and 23-28 ATS.

Looking at their ATS record for the season, the Nuggets are 27-33 overall and 14-15 at home. Their last two home games have resulted in ATS losses.

Denver’s O/U record for the season is 22-38-2, and their games have averaged 224.8 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 221.5, and 46 of their games have had higher O/U lines.

In their last game, the Nuggets were favored by 8.5 points but lost to the Suns by a score of 117-107. The O/U line for that game was 224 points, resulting in a push.

Currently, the Nuggets are 3rd in the Western Conference with a record of 42-20. In games against other Western Conference teams, they are 24-14 and 18-6 in non-conference games.

The Historicals

Across the last 5 matchups between the teams, Denver has gone 3-2 vs the spread. However, the Celtics actually have a positive scoring margin in these games at +6 points per game. Over the course of these games, they averaged 222 points per game, leading a 2-2-1 over-under record.

Analysis

The Celtics’ offense is one of the best in the league, ranking 3rd in scoring at 121 points per game. However, they have been slightly better at home, averaging 123.4 points compared to 118.3 on the road. So far, they have outscored the NBA scoring average in 72.1% of their games.

When it comes to pace, Boston is 18th in the league at 98.1 possessions per game. They have been an excellent three-point shooting team, leading the league in made threes at 16.3 per game. Overall, they are 4th in three-point shooting percentage at 38%.

While the Celtics have been efficient from two-point range, ranking 3rd in two-point shooting percentage at 57%, they are just 30th in two-point attempts. In terms of field goal percentage, they are 10th at 48%. In terms of offensive rebounds, Boston is 16th in the league.

Coming into the game, the Celtics defense has held opposing team’s to fewer points than the league average in 26.2% of their games. Currently, they are 4th in the NBA at 109.8 points per game allowed. When it comes to forced turnovers, the Celtics are forcing 11.7 per game, which is 4th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 2nd in blocked shots at 6.6 per game.

This season, the Nuggets have been one of the best shooting teams in the NBA, ranking 5th in field goal percentage. However, they are just 27th in three-point shooting at 36%.

At home, Denver is averaging 118.1 points per game, which is 9th in the league. Overall, they are 16th in scoring at 114.4 PPG.

When it comes to pace, the Nuggets are 28th in the NBA, averaging just 96.2 possessions per game. In terms of assists, they are 5th in the league at 29 per contest.

The Nuggets’ defense is presently ranked 7th in the league, allowing an average of 110.4 points per contest. When it comes to forced turnovers, the Nuggets are forcing 11.9 per game, which is 5th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 11th in blocked shots at 5.5 per game.

Betting Trends

• Through their last five road contests, the Celtics offense has averaged 115 points per game while allowing an average of 107. Boston posted an overall record of 4-1 while going 2-2-1 ATS.
• Through their last ten home games, Denver has an ATS record of just 5-4-1. However, their overall record was 6-4 while averaging 109 points per game.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Nuggets have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Celtics have gone 6-3-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 9-1.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Tonight’s Celtics vs. Nuggets matchup very well could be an NBA Finals preview, as the Celtics are the favorite to come out of the East, and the Nuggets are just one game out of the top seed in the West. Boston has pretty much cruised throughout the entire season, but just a tough one vs. Cleveland, and now they have to take on the defending champs on the road. I’m going to be taking the Nuggets straight-up in what will be a must-watch game in tonight’s NBA slate.

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