Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Predictions

Boston Celtics (64-18 SU, 49-44 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (50-32 SU, 59-41 ATS)

When: Wednesday, June 12th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas

TV: ABC

Point Spread: Bos +1.5/Dal -1.5

Total: 212.5

Money Line: Boston Celtics +104/-126

Notable Injuries

Celtics

None

Mavericks

None

Heading into game three of the NBA Finals, the Celtics, who are the one seed in the playoffs, lead the 5th-seeded Mavericks 2-0. The game is set for 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, June 12th, at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. The Mavericks are favored by -1.5 points, and the over/under is 212.5 points.

The Celtics took the most recent game of this series, beating the Mavericks by a score of 105-98. Boston was favored by 7 points heading into the game, so they were able to cover the spread. The game also fell 11.5 points short of the over/under line of 214.5 points. The Celtics held the Mavericks to just six made threes on 23.1% shooting from beyond the arc.

Jrue Holiday had a big game for the Celtics, scoring 26 points and grabbing 11 rebounds. Luka Doncic had a triple-double for the Mavericks, scoring 32 points, grabbing 11 rebounds, and dishing out 11 assists. Doncic and the Mavericks led after the first quarter, but the Celtics outscored them in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters.

Recent Form

As the Celtics look to extend their winning streak to 10 games, they come in as 1.5-point underdogs. This season, Boston has been the underdog in just four of their games, going 2-2 straight-up and 2-2 against the spread.

On the road, the Celtics have gone 22-23 ATS and have an average scoring margin of +7.8 PPG. Overall, they are 33-14 on the road and have an O/U record of 22-23.

For the season, the Celtics are 51-46-1 on the O/U, and the under has hit in their last three games. Today’s O/U line of 212.5 is lower than their season average of 226.4.

Boston’s last game was also against the Mavericks, and they won by a score of 105-98. The Celtics were favored by 7 points in that game, resulting in a push ATS. The O/U line for that game was 214.5.

In the Eastern Conference, the Celtics are in first place with a record of 64-18. Against the East, they are 41-11 and 23-7 in non-conference games.

Dallas is looking to get back on track after losing their last two games. In the Western Conference, they are currently in 5th place with a record of 50-32. Against the spread, the Mavericks are 59-41 for the season, going 25-24 ATS at home and 34-17 on the road.

At home this season, the Mavericks have an average scoring margin of +3.5 points per game. On the road, they have gone 32-20 compared to 30-19 at home.

Dallas has been the favorite in 61 of their 82 games this season and has a record of 44-17 in those games. As the favorite, they are 38-23 ATS with an average scoring margin of +6.6 PPG.

The Mavericks’ O/U record for the season is 46-55, and the under has hit in their last two games. On average, their games have finished with 229.2 points, and today’s line is set at 212.5.

In their last game, the Mavericks lost to the Celtics by a score of 105-98. The O/U line for that game was 214.5, and Dallas was a 7-point underdog going into the game (Push ATS).

The Historicals

In terms of betting, Boston has an ATS record of 4-0-1 in the previous 5 matchups vs Dallas. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +18 points per game in favor of the Celtics. A combined average of 218 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 1-4.

Analysis

This season, the Celtics are averaging 120.6 points per game, which is the second-best mark in the league. Despite their high-scoring offense, they are among the league leaders in games where they have scored below the league average. Boston’s pace of 97.2 possessions per game is just 25th in the NBA. The Celtics are leading the league in both three-point attempts and three-pointers made, averaging 42.5 attempts and 16.5 makes per contest.

Jaylen Brown is averaging 27.2 points per game in his last five games on 53.2% shooting. Over this stretch, he hit 2.4 threes per game. Jayson Tatum is averaging 26.9 points per game for the season but just 31% of his threes in his last five games. In these games, he averaged 7.6 assists and 9.8 rebounds. Derrick White is averaging 15.2 points per game for the season and 17 points in his last five games.

When it comes to defense, the Boston Celtics have been one of the best teams all season long. They are currently 3rd in the NBA in points allowed per game at 107.8. On the road, they have been just as stingy, giving up 108.8 points per contest, which is also 3rd best in the league.

Opposing teams have had a tough time getting to their season average when facing the Celtics, as they have done so just 36.6% of the time. In addition, Boston has done a great job of keeping teams off the free-throw line, as they are 1st in the NBA in free throws made allowed per game at 16.7.

One area where the Celtics have struggled a bit is in the steals department, as they are just 27th in the league in that category. However, they have been able to make up for it with their shot blocking, as they are 2nd in the NBA in that department.

Dallas comes into the game as the NBA’s 9th best scoring team, at 117.9 points per game. When playing at home, they are 10th in the league, averaging 116.9 points per contest. The Mavericks are also a high volume three-point shooting team, as they are 4th in both three-point attempts and makes this season.

Luka Doncic has been carrying the Mavericks’ offense of late, averaging 31.8 points per game in his last five games. In these games, he hit 4.6 threes per game. For the season, Doncic is averaging 33.9 points, 9.8 assists, and 9.2 rebounds. Kyrie Irving is shooting 41.1% from three this season but has hit just 26.7% of his threes in his last five games.

When it comes to points allowed per game, the Dallas Mavericks are right in the middle of the pack, giving up 113.5 points per contest (16th). Over their last five games, the Mavericks have been even stingier, allowing just 105.4 points per game (6th).

So far this season, opposing teams have scored less than their season average in 62.2% of their games vs. Dallas. However, when it comes to three-point shooting, opponents have made more threes than their season average vs. the Mavericks 64.6% of the time.

On the glass, Dallas is 17th in the NBA in rebounds per game and 15th in defensive rebounds. In terms of steals and blocked shots, they are 25th and 14th, respectively.

Betting Trends

• Across the Celtics last three road games, the team averaged 109 points per game while allowing 105. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 0-3, while going 3-0 straight-up.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, Dallas has an ATS record of 7-2-1 while averaging 106 per game. The team went 7-3 overall in these games.
• Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, Boston has an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.
• Although the Mavericks have a strong straight up record in their last three games as the betting favorite, they have not done as well vs the spread going 1-2.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

With the series shifting to Dallas, the Mavericks went from being 7-point underdogs on the road to -1.5 point favorites at home. But if the Mavs are going to get on the board with a win in this series, they will need Kyrie Irving to elevate his play. So far, he has been inefficient and failed to provide the offensive punch one would expect for a player of his caliber and track record in big moments. Even with the home-court advantage, I still like Boston to win and cover in game three.