Boston Celtics (65-32 SU, 61-34-2 ATS) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (59-37 SU, 37-58-1 ATS)
Time: Monday, May 21th, 2018 – 8:30 PM EDT
Where: Quicken Loans Arena – Cleveland, OH
TV: ESPN
by Keith, Professional NBA Handicapper, Predictem
Odds Boston +240, Cleveland -300
Point Spread: Cleveland -6.5
Total Line: 206.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers will curate hosting duties once again as they welcome the Boston Celtics at the Quicken Loans Arena for Game Four of the Eastern Conference Finals. The affair is slated for an 8:30 PM tip-off and due to be broadcasted for national audiences on ESPN. Previous to Game Three, the Celtics had jumped out to a 2-0 lead. In Game Three, the Cavaliers would respond with might as they would defeat the Celtics by a score of 116-86 covering an identical line to what is on the table here in Game Four.
The Cavaliers showcased why you should never truly count them out. At the beginning of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, we saw the Indiana Pacers take it to King James and company but yet the Cavaliers would find a way to win when they needed to and get through in seven games. It certainly seems here that the three-time defending Eastern Conference Champions are employing a similar methodology against this robust Boston Celtics team.
In Game Four, there are many betting trends we are looking at. To begin, the Celtics are 4-2 ATS in their last six contests against the Cavaliers. Overall, the Celtics are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games. Boston continues to struggle on the road in the playoffs, reflected in a 1-5 SU record away from Beantown. Contrarily, Cleveland on the year is 35-13 SU on their home court.
The Celtics offer the edge in the department of coaching as it is evident that Brad Stevens is one of the greatest coaching minds in the NBA given how he has propelled this team to play at the level they have without any true superstars currently on the floor. The Celtics have the intangibles of a wildcard, few expected them to make it this far, and they play every game with a chip on their shoulder. This gives takers an opportunity here in Game Four after they were pummeled in Game Three. This scenario could be a great rebound chance for the Green and White.
The Cavaliers have played at a higher level when they are at home throughout the post-season. Fortunately for the Cavaliers, they get two more games at home through this series with the NBA’s favorite son leading the charge. As long as LeBron James is on the floor, the Cavaliers have a chance to win any given night they take the court. Moreover, Cleveland is certainly motivated after their emphatic triumph in Game Three. They have a blueprint to operate from, and implementation of it yet again can see the Cavaliers cover the line.
From the get-go, 72% of the cash and 65% of the ticket action are shown to be with the Cavaliers against the spread. On the contrary, the line has fallen by half of a point to indicate action has come in on Boston. From a consensus perspective, the forums seem to be divided down the middle on this position. In Over/Under markets, we have seen the market remain idle despite 68% of the public money and 63% ticket action on the Over in this market.
Situational betting is a big part of our approach and insight. The Game Three result can cultivate yet another overreaction given how dominant the Cavaliers appeared. Comparing Cleveland in Game One and Game Three is literally a tale of two different teams. The Cleveland team we saw in Game Three generally incurs backers to pay a premium to back them. When the Cavs are at home, that likelihood is further enhanced by Boston’s ills on the road in the playoffs. We’ll take the points.
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