Battling the Books: NBA Pick for April 23
NBA Prediction Miami at Cleveland
I like choices when I’m handicapping and looking for a game to play, but too much choice leads to indecision, and I’ve got a plethora of plays today.
“Pepe, do you know what a plethora is?”
(Someone will get that reference, yes?)
All three games today qualify for either a side or total. I have EIGHT spots to choose from.
I’m not going to play them all, but I’ll post all spots that qualify along with their postseason records for anyone looking for edges on the games.
These are all from my unique handicapping models:
WF1 (Wrong Favorite) and WF2 BOTH say Golden State should be the favorite today.
WF1 is 1-0 on Rd teams.
WF2 is 1-1.
This is the first time in the postseason that I’ve had a match where both say take the same side. Recent play during the close of the regular season I have 11 plays charted where both chose the Rd team as the team that should be the Favorite. The record was 6-5.
Golden State/Houston was the only game that qualified for a play on a side.
All three games qualified for totals
Here’s the breakdown:
T1 (Totals system #1) says Mia/Cle and Orlando/Boston qualify for an Over. The record on this spot is now 2-5.
T2 says all three games tonight qualify for an Over. The record on this spot is 3-6.
When I get a match, when both systems have the same play, such as with the Mia/Cle and Orl/Bos games, the record for Overs is 1-2.
Finally, my H/C (Hot/Cold Trend Reversal model) says take Mia/Cle Under. The record for Unders in this spot is 3-0 this postseason.
Yeah, like I said, a lot to choose from.
Too much.
Days like this make my handicapping head spin.
I like the conflicting qualifying plays on the Mia/Cle game. T1 and T2 say take the game Over, and both have losing records to Fade (2-5 and 3-6, for a combined 5-11, 68% Fade.)
And then there’s the record for when I have a match with both models on an Over, 1-2.
Those stats conflict with the H/C Trend Reversal model that says this game stays Under. That play is 3-0.
So I have three models with a losing record on Overs conflicting with one model that has a winning record on Unders.
That’s an easy call to make, I’ll go with the winning model and hope that reversion to the mean doesn’t come in on all three systems.
Looking at standard stats this is game two in this series. The total opened at 215 and is down to 212. Game One total was 216 and it landed one 221.
So game one came in as an Over and the books drop the total for game two?
What’s up with that?
Is Jimmy Butler out for Miami (Yes, I’m kidding, but it won’t surprise me if I venture out into Sports Forum Land and see someone asking that question somewhere. Some people really need to find a new hobby.)
The Heat are missing Love (5.3 PPG) and Rozier (10.6 PPG) but they didn’t play in game one either and that didn’t stop Miami from scoring 100 points in the game from going Over.
Unders have been the way to go so far this postseason, coming into today’s games with a record of 12-7, hitting at a 63% clip.
But right now, this game’s sitting at 212; that’s nine points fewer than they scored in game 1, making the under look unattractive in this one.
The regular season scores between these two are as follows:
235, 232, 219.
ALL three games are over the total on tonight’s contest. Add the postseason score of 221 and all four meetings between these two this year have gone Over tonight’s total, by 23, 20, 7, and 9, an average of 14 points per game.
How’s that pick on the Under looking now?
Not too good, eh?
Well, like I always say . . .
Sports bettors don’t bet on plays that look bad to them, they bet on games and lines that they think look good.
And most sports bettors lose.
So every once in a while, you just got to hold your nose and hope for the best.
Like with this pick.
And, I go to do a line check after doing a final edit on this article, and what do I find?
The total is STILL dropping, down from an opening 215, then 212 when I started writing this, to 211′ now.
The ugly gets uglier.
My play:
Mia/Cle Un 211′
Recap: 1-0
Record: 12-10
Review: Banked a winner with the LAC/Den game Under with my last pick, based on the “Game two, played on a Monday” model that I detailed in the column.