Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks: Moneyline Pick and Predictions

Atlanta Hawks (14-12 SU, 11-15 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (13-11 SU, 9-14 ATS)

When: Saturday, December 14th, 4:30 PM (ET)

Where: T-Mobile Arena, NV, Las Vegas

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Atl +3.5/Mil -3.5

Total: 227.5

Money Line: Atlanta Hawks +146/-173

Notable Injuries

Hawks

• Cody Zeller (Out) Not With Team
• Bogdan Bogdanovic (Probable) Quad
• Trae Young (Probable) Achilles
• De’Andre Hunter (Probable) Injury Management
• Jalen Johnson (Questionable) Ankle

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Knee
• Khris Middleton (Probable) Ankle
• MarJon Beauchamp (Probable) Hamstring

At 4:30 ET, the Milwaukee Bucks (-173) will host the Atlanta Hawks (+146) in an Eastern Conference matchup. The Bucks are favored by 3.5 points and have won two straight games. The over/under line for this game is 227.5.

This game will be played at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas and can be seen on TNT.

Recent Form

The Hawks improved to 14-12 on the season with a 108-100 road win over the Knicks on Wednesday. Atlanta, who entered the game as +7.5 point underdogs, not only won but covered the spread. The total points for the game were 208, well under the O/U line of 237.5.

After trailing 54-47 at halftime, Atlanta turned the game around with an 11-0 run, taking the score from 66-65 to 77-65. They dominated the 3rd quarter, outscoring New York 34-18, and held off the Knicks in the 4th quarter, despite being outscored 28-27.

The Bucks improved to 13-11 on the season with a 114-109 win over the Magic on Tuesday. Milwaukee, who were -7.5 point favorites, didn’t cover the spread, winning by five. The game’s total points of 223 exceeded the over/under line of 215.

Milwaukee’s 11-0 run was crucial, stretching the score from 71-70 to 82-70. They outscored Orlando 35-26 in the 2nd quarter and 20-13 in the 3rd, but the Magic fought back in the 4th, outscoring the Bucks 37-34.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Bucks hold the edge at 3-2. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just -1 points per game. The over-under record in these same games is 2-3, with the teams combining for an average of 233 points per game.

Analysis

De’Andre Hunter’s 24 points and four made threes at an 80% clip helped the Hawks overcome poor shooting in their win over the Knicks. Atlanta shot just 41.3% from the field and 29% from three, hitting only nine threes overall.

Trae Young added 22 points and 11 assists despite shooting 36.4% and making just 2 of 8 threes. Jalen Johnson contributed 21 points and 15 rebounds, scoring 9 points in the 3rd quarter.

The Hawks’ defense held the Knicks to 100 points on Wednesday, including a standout 3rd quarter where they allowed just 18 points. Overall, they limited New York to 43% shooting from the field.

Atlanta’s defense was particularly effective against the three, as they held the Knicks to 26% shooting from deep, with just 11 made threes. The Hawks also recorded seven blocks in the game.

Giannis Antetokounmpo led the Bucks with 37 points and seven rebounds in their win over the Magic, shooting 62.5% from the field. Damian Lillard added 28 points and nine assists, scoring 15 points in the 4th quarter, while Bobby Portis contributed 22 points and ten rebounds, hitting 81.8% of his shots.

As a team, the Bucks shot 54.5% from the field but struggled from beyond the arc, making just 11 threes at a 36.7% clip. Portis connected on two threes, shooting 66.7% from deep, and Lillard also hit two threes at 40%.

Despite giving up 37 points in the 4th quarter, the Bucks’ defense held strong in the 3rd, allowing just 13 points, which helped them secure a 114-109 win over the Magic. Milwaukee gave up 109 points overall, including 33 in the 1st quarter and 26 in the 2nd.

The Bucks limited Orlando to just 6 made threes on 22% shooting from beyond the arc. The Magic went to the line 27 times, making 21 free throws. Milwaukee finished with 32 defensive rebounds, gave up 15 offensive boards, and recorded nine steals and six blocks.

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road contests, the Hawks’ offense has averaged 114 points per game while allowing an average of 114. Atlanta posted an overall record of 6-4 while going 6-4 ATS.
• In their last five home games, Milwaukee has averaged 114 points per game while allowing 109. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
• Atlanta has done well both straight up and vs. the spread as the underdog, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Milwaukee has an ATS mark of 3-7 while going 8-2 straight up.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Bucks are currently favored by -3.5 heading into this NBA Cup matchup, but I really like Atlanta in this spot. The Bucks have still yet to really prove themselves against top teams but have been able to climb back above .500 thanks to a weak schedule of late. Look for a huge game from Trae Young, as Damian Lillard is going to have a tough time on defense. I’m taking the Hawks on the money line.