Atlanta Hawks vs. Charlotte Hornets: Betting Analysis & Free Pick

Atlanta Hawks (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Charlotte Hornets (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

When: Wednesday, October 25th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Spectrum Center, NC, Charlotte

TV: BSSE

Point Spread: Atl -3.5/Cha +3.5

Total: 235.5

Money Line: Atlanta Hawks -164/+135

Notable Injuries

Hawks

• Wesley Matthews (Out) Calf

Hornets

• Frank Ntilikina (Out) Left Tibia
• Miles Bridges (Out) Suspension
• Cody Martin (Out) Knee
• James Bouknight (Out) Knee
• Bryce McGowens (Doubtful) Ankle

Recent Form

Atlanta finished last season with a 7th place finish in the Eastern Conference during the 2022-2023 NBA season. Furthermore, they achieved an 8-8 record in the Southeast Division. Their overall performance led to a 41-41 record.

Atlanta achieved a record of 45-35-2 in relation to the over under during the 2022-2023 season. Throughout their games, they maintained an average over/under line of 233.5. Furthermore, the average combined scoring in their matches amounted to 236.6.

Atlanta had a record against the spread of 31-51 during the 2022-2023 season. In 49 games, they were favored and had an average scoring margin of 1.4. However, when favored, their against the spread record was 19-30.

Charlotte is coming off a season where the Hornets achieved an overall record of 27-55 during the 2022-2023 season. Their home record stood at 13-28, while their home scoring margin was -6.9. Additionally, the team held a division record of 7-9.

The Hornets are coming off a season where they achieved a record of 34-48-0 against the over under during the 2022-2023 season. Their average over/under line was 229.2, and in 27 games, they managed to surpass the threshold of 235.5 points.

Charlotte finished last season with an overall record against the spread of 27-55. When favored, their average scoring margin stood at 0.8. Additionally, they maintained a road record against the spread of 14-27.

The Historicals

Across the last 5 matchups between the teams, Charlotte has gone 3-2 vs the spread. However, the Hawks actually have a positive scoring margin in these games at +4 points per game. Over the course of these games, they averaged 244 points per game, leading a 3-2 over-under record.

Analysis

The Hawks offense is coming off a season where they ranked 9th in the NBA for offensive rebounds per game, averaging 11.2. In terms of free throws attempted per game, they ranked 20th in the league with 22.6. Additionally, the Hawks scored an average of 118.4 points per game, placing them 3rd in the NBA.

Atlanta’s defense wrapped up last season with rankings of 26th in points allowed per game, 12th in blocked shots per game, 18th in steals per game, and 25th in field goal percentage allowed.

The Hornets offense is coming off a season where they ranked 28th in the NBA with a field goal percentage of 45.7%. In terms of offensive rebounds, they placed 12th in the league with an average of 11.0 per game. With an average of 111.0 points per game, the Hornets ranked 27th in the NBA. Furthermore, they had 25.1 assists per game, placing 17th in the league.

Defensively, the Hornets ranked 18th in the NBA with an effective field goal percentage allowed of 54.6%. In terms of points allowed per game, they ranked 22nd in the league, giving up an average of 117.2 points. On a positive note, the Hornets’ defense excelled in blocking shots, recording an average of 5.2 blocks per game and securing the 8th position in the league.

Betting Trends

• Across the Hawks’ last three road games, the team averaged 108 points per game while allowing 116. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-2, while going 1-2 straight-up.
• Across their last three home contests, Charlotte has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 3-0. Their overall mark in these games was 3-0, while averaging 120 points per game.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Hornets have a straight-up record of 5-5 and an ATS mark of 6-4.
• Across their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the Hawks have an overall record of 3-2 while going 1-4 against the spread.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

In this matchup, I’m taking the Hawks to not only pick up the win but cover the spread. My bet is on Atlanta at -3.5.