76ers vs. Pacers Prediction: Can Philly Cover the Spread Without Embiid?

Philadelphia 76ers (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. Indiana Pacers (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)

When: Sunday, October 27th, 3:30 PM (ET)

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, IN, Indianapolis

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Phi +8/Ind -8

Total: 229

Money Line: Philadelphia 76ers +260/-321

Notable Injuries

76ers

• Joel Embiid (Out) Knee
• Paul George (Out) Knee

Pacers

• James Wiseman (Out) Achilles

Today at 3:30 ET, the Philadelphia 76ers (0-2) will travel to take on the Indiana Pacers (1-1) in an Eastern Conference matchup. The Pacers are favored by 8 points, and the over/under line is set at 229.

This game will be played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis and can be seen on NBCS.

Recent Form

The 76ers fell to 0-2 on the season after a 115-107 loss to the Raptors on Friday. Philadelphia, who were -4.5 point favorites, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The total score of 222 points narrowly exceeded the pre-game O/U line of 219.5.

After a tight 1st quarter, the Raptors took control in the 2nd, outscoring the 76ers 32-25. An 11-0 run by Toronto in the 4th quarter put the game out of reach, stretching the score from 89-79 to 100-79 before the 76ers made a late push.

The Pacers dropped to 1-1 on the season after a 123-98 road loss to the Knicks on Friday. Indiana, who entered the game as +4.5 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread. The game’s total of 221 points came in under the 228.5-point line.

After a close 1st quarter, the Pacers were outscored 36-21 in the 2nd and 34-19 in the 3rd, leaving them trailing 95-64 entering the 4th. They managed to outscore the Knicks 34-28 in the final quarter, but the game was already out of reach.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed vs the spread in recent matchups, the Pacers have an ATS mark of 3-2. Yet, the 76ers have averaged more points per game in these contests, at 134, compared to Indiana, at 134. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 5-0. Combined, they averaged 265 points in these games.

Analysis

In their 115-107 loss to the Raptors, the 76ers shot just 38.2% from the field and made nine threes at a 31% clip. Kelly Oubre Jr. led the way with 28 points, hitting three threes at 50%, while Tyrese Maxey added 24 points despite shooting 26.1% and 16.7% from deep.

Oubre scored 12 points in the 4th quarter, and Kyle Lowry added 8 of his 14 points in the final period, hitting three threes at 60% overall. Maxey had 13 points in the 1st quarter but managed just 2 in the 4th.

Defensively, the 76ers struggled in the 2nd and 4th quarters, giving up 32 points in each, despite a strong 3rd quarter where they allowed just 21 points. Overall, they allowed 115 points on 46% shooting from the field.

Philadelphia did well in limiting Toronto’s three-point shooting, holding them to just 6 made threes on 26% shooting. The 76ers finished with 11 steals and five blocks.

The 76ers struggled offensively in their loss to the Raptors, shooting just 38.2% from the field and making only nine threes at a 31% rate. Kelly Oubre Jr. led the way with 28 points, hitting three threes at 50%, while Tyrese Maxey added 24 points despite shooting just 26.1% overall and 16.7% from deep.

Oubre scored 12 points in the 4th quarter, while Maxey did most of his damage in the 1st with 13 points. Kyle Lowry also contributed 8 of his 14 points in the final period, and Caleb Martin added 8 of his 11 points in the 4th as well.

The Pacers struggled defensively on Friday, giving up 123 points to the Knicks, including 36 in the 2nd quarter and 34 in the 3rd. Indiana allowed New York to shoot 52% from the field.

Indiana also sent the Knicks to the line 29 times, where they converted 23 free throws. The Pacers recorded eight steals and six blocks in the game.

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road games, Philadelphia has an ATS record of just 7-3. However, their overall record was 5-5 while averaging 112 points per game.
• Across their ten previous home games, Indiana has an ATS mark of 5-5. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 3-7 while averaging 112 points per game.
• Through their last five games as the betting underdog, the 76ers have a strong record vs the spread, going 3-2. Their straight-up mark in these contests is 2-3.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Pacers have a strong straight-up record of 3-0. In addition, their ATS record was 3-0 in these scenarios.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Even without Embiid and Paul George, I see the 76ers hanging around against a Pacers squad that only beat the Pistons by six and lost to the Knicks while Tyrese Haliburton was held scoreless. For Sunday’s matchup, I’m taking the 76ers at +8.