YellaWood 500 Picks & Predictions | 10/6/24

Race: YellaWood 500

Date: Sunday, October 6, 2024

Track: Talladega Superspeedway

Time: 2pm ET

Channel: NBC

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Well, HE definitely wasn’t on my radar for winning at Kansas, but Ross Chastain took the checkered flag and got a taste of redemption after a winless season to this point. This year hasn’t been the kindest to Chastain, who failed to advance in the playoffs after the regular season and saw much of his momentum from the previous year squandered during the 2024 season. Nevertheless, Chastain managed to lead 52 laps during Sunday’s race and snag the lead from Martin Truex Jr. on the last restart. He even managed to put William Byron’s late charge to rest and beat him to the line by 0.388 seconds when it mattered most. The thing about Chastain, you can always count on his humor to come through. In the post-race interview, he jokingly said, “Look, there have been times this year where we couldn’t have disrupted the minnow pond outside of Darlington, let alone a Cup race.” And that, folks, is one of the reasons that we should all love the watermelon man. He’s been very transparent about his struggles this season. And, quite frankly, if you can’t joke on yourself, who can you joke on?

Other drivers weren’t so lucky as to take the checkered flag, but they could still jest about the day and be joyful in their results. William Byron knew that the second row just wasn’t desirable on that restart, but there wasn’t anything he could do to overcome the aerodynamic advantage that Chastain had in the front of the pack. Martin Truex Jr. was a little more on the frustrated side after being so close but just not being able to close the deal. Honestly, it was a much-needed strong run for the team and a great finish for the day. Kyle Larson, who was a top pick for Kansas, struggled mightily early on in the day. He ended up with a cut right-rear tire, causing him to bounce off the wall in turn 2. Only 19 laps into the race that definitely was not the start to this Round that he envisioned. He redeemed himself somewhat after getting his lap back after Daniel Hemric’s spin on lap 143, ending the day in 26th place and also losing some of the points padding that he entered the Round with. Some stronger finishes during the weekend included Ryan Blaney and Ty Gibbs, who rounded out the top 5 drivers. Alex Bowman, Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, and Zane Smith finished out the top 10 drivers.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

Two races remain in the Round of 12, with Talladega being the next track on the docket for these drivers and teams. After Talladega, the guys head to Roval in Charlotte. Between those two races, a lot of uncertainty exists. Superspeedways and road courses are tough to predict. There’s an element of unpredictability that will always exist. Talladega is a place where horsepower matters, having friends matters, and maintaining the draft is absolutely critical. This place is a 2.66 mile asphalt tri-oval with 33 degrees of banking in the turns, 16.5 degrees of banking in the tri-oval and just 2 degrees on the straights. Qualifying is important, but staying out of trouble is important. All too often, these drivers are caught somewhere in the front-mid of the pack and get turned around and take out half of the field in the process. Talladega and Daytona are tracks where experience matters. Learning how to maintain the draft and “see the air” are skills that many have a difficult time mastering. Dale Earnhardt was the king of “seeing the air” and no one else has ever quite driven the super speedways with as much talent as he did. Many have tried, and many have done a great job, but there was just something about super speedways and Dale Earnhardt Sr. that went together.

Odds and Value Picks

We don’t have the luxury of watching Dale Sr race anymore, but we still get to see some good racing nonetheless. Best drivers in recent history give us a good picture of some of the Cup Series regulars that are consistent here, meaning that they’ve mastered some of the art form of super speedway racing. In the regulars that have seven starts in recent history, Ryan Blaney holds the best average finish with an 8.6, one win, three top 5s, and four top 10s. William Byron follows him next with seven starts and an 11.6 average finish. He has no wins, but he’s got 2 top 5s and 4 top 10s. Both Chase Elliott and Brad Keselowski follow Byron and they both have a win and float between 12 and 13 for an average finish. In all-time career starts, it’s Chase Elliott that holds the best average finish for all active Cup Series drivers. He currently has 17 starts under his belt with two wins, five top 5s, and 8 top 10s. Chase Briscoe comes in behind Elliott with seven starts and an average 14.4 finish. He has no wins and only one top 5. Ryan Blaney has 20 starts with an average finish of 14.8, 3 wins, 6 top 5s, 8 top 10s. Behind Ryan Blaney is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. He always seems to show up at these tracks. This is a place for him to really shine. With 22 total starts, Stenhouse has one win, 7 top 5s, and 10 top 10s. So, who is going to be at the checkered flag first this go around? Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into this weekend with odds provided by Bovada: (They’ll give you a 50% bonus up to $250 if you deposit with a credit card and a 75% bonus up to $750 if you use bitcoin)

Winner:

• William Byron
• Mid-Range Pick: Brad Keselowski
• Dark Horse: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

As mentioned, Stenhouse Jr. knows his way around this type of track. The Spring race gave him a top-5 finish, and overall, Stenhouse remains competitive at the bigger circuits. Don’t count him out. In fact, keep him on your roster as someone that should have a pretty good day. Brad Keselowski is another guy that could sneak a win here this weekend. Keselowski had a runner-up finish in the Spring race and also a strong history of good finishes and races overall at Talladega. I think that he will be a force to be reckoned with during Sunday’s showdown. William Byron is someone that I am throwing out there despite other picking guys like Blaney and Elliott. Don’t get me wrong. Both Elliott and Blaney are phenomenal here, but if we’re being honest, who’s been best this year so far across the board? William Byron is having a very strong season. He’s coming to Talladega with a strong finish at Kansas. He had a top-10 finish here in the Spring race. Byron is just on point. The other drivers really haven’t had the consistency that he’s had this year, which proves why he sits atop the leaderboard once again. He’s that driver that avoids the big races and the incidents that force him into a DNF. He’s got a strong cushion right now and is leading the pack with two races remaining in the Round of 12. Let’s take a look at your playoff leaderboard as the teams head into the unknown of Talladega:

Playoff Leaderboard:

1. William Byron
2. Ryan Blaney
3. Christopher Bell
4. Kyle Larson
5. Denny Hamlin
6. Alex Bowman
7. Chase Elliott
8. Joey Logano
9. Tyler Reddick
10. Daniel Suarez
11. Chase Briscoe
12. Austin Cindric

Honestly, the bubble drivers sitting below Logano are not surprising. Tyler Reddick might be the one guy that I’d see scratching his way through some tough waters to make it to the next Round, but overall, I think that the top 8 are pretty predictable. The trend of non-playoff drivers really pulling it off is starting to create some troubles for the playoff guys, though. A win for the playoff drivers is never guaranteed. It just goes to show why these points and overall consistency matter so much. For William Byron, he’s maintained that trend throughout the season, thus why he’s my pick this week. Stay tuned to see if he comes out victorious for another great afternoon of superspeedway racing at Talladega!

After a surprising Kansas victory from Ross Chastain, NASCAR heads to the unpredictable Talladega Superspeedway for the YellaWood 500. With drivers like William Byron and Brad Keselowski leading the charge, this weekend promises an exciting battle on one of NASCAR’s most iconic tracks. Tune in to see if Byron can maintain his lead, or if dark horse Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will steal the show.

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