Xfinity 500 Race Preview & Picks

Race: Xfinity 500

Date: Sunday, October 29th, 2023

Track: Martinsville Speedway

Time: 2:00 pm ET

Channel: NBC

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Christopher Bell took his chance and punched his ticket into the round of 4 before the final race in the round of 8 this past weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway! In what was seemingly going to be a pretty somber finish for Bell turned around to be the best possible outcome. It’s a true testament to always keep pushing and to make sure that your team continues to believe in their efforts.

At one point, Bell was in danger of falling a lap down, but the last 50 to 60 laps proved to be exactly the series of events he needed to get back into contention. The first time that Bell took the lead was on lap 230. That says a lot. He definitely didn’t have the best car from the start of the race. He struggled quite a bit, but he rallied in the end, taking the lead back from Byron with 15 laps to go.

Ryan Blaney came on strong in the final laps, but he couldn’t close the deal, leaving Bell with his second win of the season. For Bell, it was an affirmation of teamwork and certainly a morale boost after radio communications in that second stage proved that Bell was mentally down and out. Nevertheless, he came home victorious, 1.651 seconds ahead of second place Blaney. Tyler Reddick, William Byron, and AJ Allmendinger finished out the top 5 spots. Bubba Wallace, Ty Gibbs, Joey Logano, Aric Almirola, and Austin Dillon rounded out the top 10 spots.

That is pretty telling since the majority of those top 10 finishers are not playoff contenders. Denny Hamlin, Chris Buescher and Martin Truex Jr. join Tyler Reddick as being below the cutoff line. It was a rough day for many of the playoff guys.

In fact, Kyle Larson is lucky he is already in the final grid after a gnarly hit to the water barrels entering pit road. He was coming in hot behind Blaney…a little too hot and dove right, still making slight contact with the rear of Blaney’s car. Luckily for Blaney, his damage was minimal. For Larson, those barrels didn’t give like he hoped. His day was over after that crash unfortunately.

When the race resumed, Denny Hamlin was showing strength after having strong finishes in the first two stages. It didn’t last, though. Blaney and Hamlin made contact, drifting up the track. But that wasn’t the part that ended Hamlin. A few laps later, it appears that something on Hamlin’s car just gave out as he drifted up the track, slamming into the Turn 2 wall. Shortly after Hamlin’s hit, his teammate, Truex Jr., said his engine was giving way causing him to retire from the race under Hamlin’s caution. After that catastrophe, the race resumed with 25 laps remaining. Bell caught Byron and took the lead at that point, with Blaney capturing second spot with 6 laps remaining. While it was a valiant effort, it just wasn’t quite enough.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

Bell is looking to match the excitement from Homestead to this weekend’s race at Martinsville. Will he be able to do it? I’m not so sure. Martinsville is a different beast and certainly an unforgiving track in many respects.

The “Paperclip” is aptly nicknamed due to its resemblance of, well, a paperclip. Shocking. As one of the oldest tracks on the circuit, Martinsville boasts a mountain of history dating back to the 1940s. It’s pretty tremendous the length of time that this track has managed to survive in NASCAR despite the changes.

Honestly, it’s one of my favorite tracks, with a lot of similarities to dirt tracks that our grassroots drivers came from. This track is a 0.526 mile asphalt oval with 12 degrees of banking in the turns and no banking on the straights. This track is really like no other track. It’s flat and extremely short, with just 800 feet of straightaway on the frontstretch and backstretch. That means that there’s little to no room for error.

These drivers are going to have to focus on maintaining equipment, especially tires and brakes. The drivers will rarely ever be able to go full throttle if they want to brake in time for the corners. Momentum can’t be carried throughout the track. Remember when Jeff Gordon came back from 3 laps down? That’s another thing. There will be lap traffic. In fact, it won’t be long before cars start getting lapped. Gordon was part of another era of racing when the lucky dog had a chance and that spot meant something. It would be a miraculous feat to see that again.

Odds and Value Picks

While we likely won’t see any lap cars coming to take the win, especially a car 3 laps down, it’s certain that there are some drivers that thrive here and others that just struggle to finish the race. Martinsville can be extremely frustrating to drivers that do not have a short track or dirt track history but oh so fun for those that do.

In recent history, Joey Logano is our best average finisher holding strong at 4.7 followed by Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Kurt Busch. Out of that group, only Larson and Elliott have wins. Out of all-time races at Martinsville, Ryan Blaney holds the best average finish at 9.5 followed by semi-retired Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, and Kyle Busch.

When we look at the combination of drivers in most recent history and all-time races, we have to look at the current standings and how this year has gone so far. Last week’s winner, Bell, is 17th in best finish over the last few years of racing here. He does have a win. That is good to know, but drivers like William Byron and Kyle Larson are going to be extremely competitive, with both of them also having a win recently and also being multi-race winners this season.

If we’re being honest, Larson is definitely the top dog heading into the weekend. If he can avoid an over-zealous pit road entry, he might be onto another win.

Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into Martinsville with odds provided by Bovada:

• Winner: Kyle Larson +700
• Mid-Range Pick: Ty Gibbs +3300
• Dark Horse: Alex Bowman +4000

Gibbs is coming along nicely this year, proving that he’s got something to show everyone in the years to come. He’s got an average finish of 18.5 here, but that’s only 2 races. Clearly, he’s made progress in his skillset, so I’m going to throw him a bone this weekend.

Alex Bowman is another driver that has been a bit on the struggle bus this year, but he’s got some opportunity to do better this weekend. As someone with a win recently and the 8th best finisher in recent years, Bowman could capitalize on what’s been a difficult 2023. I think we are going to see him and this team rally this weekend. What they will have to do is push Larson off the grid, though.

Kyle Larson won the race here in April, and has 3 top 5 finishes since 2020. He would’ve really been in contention for the win last weekend if he didn’t decide to drink from the water barrels. That being said, he is already locked into the final 4, so what does he have to lose? Look for Larson to be at the top of his game this weekend! At 18 points above the cutline, he’s fortunate to have a win up his sleeve to lock him in, but that leaves Blaney and Byron as drivers not locked in with a win. Regardless of finish, Byron has basically pointed his way in already. Mathematically, he can’t really fall out.

Standings Heading into the Final Race of the Round of 8:

• Christopher Bell
• Kyle Larson
• William Byron
• Ryan Blaney
• Tyler Reddick
• Martin Truex Jr.
• Denny Hamlin
• Chris Buescher

Honestly, Martinsville is going to be a pretty great race if I had to guess. With Hamlin and Truex both 17 points outside of the cutoff and Buescher absolutely having to win to get his way in the final grid, there will be risks taken. There are two spots up for grabs, and it’s really going to be a no holds bar when it comes down to it. Martinsville is usually an exciting time anyway, but add to it being the last race before the last race, well, that’s going to add fuel to the fire.

This weekend will be a culmination of the entire 2023 season. With only one race remaining before a champion is crowned at Phoenix, Martinsville will give us edge of your seat racing all day long. Stay tuned for what’s sure to be one of the best races of the season!