Xfinity 500 Betting Analysis & Race Predictions | November 3, 2024

by | Last updated Oct 30, 2024 | nascar

Xfinity 500 Race Picks

Xfinity 500 Race Preview: Martinsville Speedway
Race: Xfinity 500
Date: Sunday, November 3rd, 2024
Track: Martinsville Speedway
Time: 2:00 pm ET
Channel: NBC

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Luckily for Joey Logano, he managed to clinch his championship berth last weekend in Las Vegas. Homestead was not his friend, coming home with a dismal 28th-place finish. Kyle Larson also struggled, ending the day with a 13th-place run after battling a blown tire in stage one. He also managed to spin out late in the race, making any chance at redemption pretty close to zero. Tyler Reddick took the win when all was said and done in a late restart last lap pass. He beat Ryan Blaney to the checkers and punched his ticket to the championship four. This is a career first for Tyler Reddick, so it is definitely an item checked off the bucket list.

Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, and Chase Elliott rounded out the top 5 spots when all was said and done, with William Byron, Alex Bowman, AJ Allmendinger, Carson Hocevar, and Ryan Preece completing your top 10. Hamlin had a strong run going through most of the day, with 21 laps led, a second stage win, and leading the race with just three laps to go. Unfortunately, he just couldn’t get back to the front when it mattered most, and that late race pit call may have been his demise. Perhaps the biggest loser coming out of Homestead is, in fact, Kyle Larson. As the clear leader heading into the playoffs, Larson suffered from some chaos. After managing to make it back to 2nd place after dropping all the way back to 34th with his tire issue early on, Larson ended up spinning out in turn 4 to avoid hitting Austin Dillon, causing him to hit Ryan Blaney. Ultimately, his 13th-place finish puts him below the cut line heading into our last race in the Round of 8.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

This weekend is the last opportunity for the drivers to clench their position in the championship 4-round. Martinsville is going to be quite the showdown, with many drivers needing either a win or a very solid finish in points. This track is fun to watch, with lap traffic typically being one of the biggest challenges. Martinsville is a 0.526-mile asphalt/concrete oval with just 12 degrees of banking through the turns and no banking on the straights. It is affectionately known as the “Paperclip,” with the straights being just 800 feet in length. It is narrow, short, and quick. The drivers use a lot of brakes heading into the turns and have their foot on the floor coming back out of the turns, meaning there’s a lot of wear and tear on the cars, engines, and tires throughout the duration of the race. One of the benefits and curses of this track is its length. It doesn’t take much to get lapped, but it’s also easier to race your way back to the front.

Odds and Value Picks

We have quite a few drivers with a strong affinity for Martinsville, many of which are on the bubble or below the cutline for the final four. In recent history, Joey Logano has been the driver with the best average finish at 5.3, but he has had no recent wins. I don’t think that he’s going to be at the front of the pack, to be honest. Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson fall just behind Logano, each boasting one win in the last 3 years. William Byron holds the 4th best average finish with two recent wins. Overall career finishes at Martinsville have Ryan Blaney leading the pack with one win in 17 starts and an average finish of 8.8. Knowing that he has to win to move on is going to mean something in the way he comes to work on Sunday. Denny Hamlin is another driver with an exceptional record at Martinsville and someone needing a seriously good finish. In 37 total career starts, Hamlin has five wins and an average finish of 10.2. Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into this final race in the Round of 8 (odds provided by Bovada>):

  • Winner: Denny Hamlin +300
  • Mid-Range Pick: Brad Keselowski +900
  • Dark Horse: Chase Briscoe +3300

Briscoe has fallen off a bit here toward the end of the season, but Martinsville has always been a place where he’s been pretty successful. In fact, this is one of his best tracks. Overall career starts put him as the 5th best average finish in just seven starts. He has 2 top 5s and 5 top 10s. Briscoe is a pretty strong short-track driver, so look for him to be a contender this weekend with absolutely nothing to lose. Keselowski is also in the same position, with an 8th-best average career finish and two wins in 29 starts. Although he typically thrives at the superspeedways, he’s taken to Martinsville through the years. They will all be chasing Denny Hamlin. With Hamlin truly needing to win this weekend or have a close-to first-place finish, he will do everything in his power to have a strong finish. Let’s see where your top 8 are sitting after the chaotic end to Homestead:

  • Tyler Reddick
  • Joey Logano
  • Christopher Bell
  • William Byron
  • Kyle Larson
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Ryan Blaney
  • Chase Elliott

Elliott and Blaney are in a must-win position. They can’t point their way into the championship 4. Hamlin is sitting 18 points below the cutoff line, which is a dangerous place to be. He will be looking to win and nothing else. Kyle Larson is in a position that he’s not used to, being 7 points below the cutoff line with just one race remaining before the championship four are locked in. Byron will have to pray for a solid day and also work on winning, as he’s just 7 points above Larson. Bell is relatively secure, even without a win, and Logano and Reddick are locked in. Anything is possible, though. Stay tuned for what’s slated to be an exciting afternoon of racing as the last two drivers of the championship four clench their spots at Martinsville Speedway!