Verizon 200 at the Brickyard Value Picks

by | Last updated Aug 11, 2023 | nascar

Verizon 200 at the Brickyard

Race: Verizon 200 at the Brickyard

Date: Sunday August 13, 2023

Track: Indianapolis Motor Speedway

Time: 2:30pm ET

Channel: NBC

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

TWO IN A ROW! I don’t think any of us would’ve predicted that. Chris Buescher pulled out another win at Michigan this time. This team has to be on cloud nine after spending so many races struggling just to crack the top 15. Despite a hard fought charge by Martin Truex Jr., who won the first two stages, Buescher was able to hold him off at every chance, ultimately securing him the win. It wasn’t necessarily easy. The race was rain delayed to begin with and then one stage was run Sunday with the second and third stages run on Monday. Rain seems to be the ticket for Buescher. A little bit of rain and a little bit of sun do him well. Truex certainly didn’t hand him the win, with the margin of victory being just 0.152 seconds. With 4 laps to go, Truex and Buescher were side by side, but Truex would quickly fall in line behind him with not much hope for passing. Buescher seems to have had a bolster in confidence as well. That’s what 2 wins in a row will do for you. It definitely wasn’t a fluke. Buescher has been racing for a long time. Things are finally coming together for the RFK team. As I mentioned last weekend, Brad Keselowski has brought a lot of knowledge, data, and experience to a team that really needed it.

For his part, Keselowksi had one of his best finishes of the season, crossing the line in 4th place. Buescher and Keselowski were the bread to the meat with the JGR drivers of Truex and Hamlin coming in 2nd and 3rd places. Kyle Larson was the lone Hendrick car, rounding out the top 5 spots. Daniel Suarez, Ross Chastain, Kevin Harvick, Ryan Blaney, and Erik Jones were the back 5 of the top 10 drivers. It was a much needed strong showing for Trackhouse Racing. They’ve had a season full of ups and downs, but both cars in the top 10 is a strong weekend for them for sure. For Chase Elliott, it was definitely not a finish they wanted. Elliott, Byron, Bell, and Kyle Busch all crashed out. Elliott has to win to advance to the playoffs. His opportunities are getting slimmer and slimmer. He’s one of the drivers to watch over the next few weeks because being cautious isn’t going to get him where he needs to be.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

There are only three races remaining until the field is set for the playoff rounds. This weekend is going to be a doozy as the drivers are going to be challenged on a road course. They may no longer race on the Indy oval, but they still head to Indy for an opportunity on the road course. This is a relatively new challenge for the teams still. Like it or not, the drivers must endure if they’re planning on being part of the elite 16 that move on. Indy is challenging. The thing about road courses is that they are all different. Sonoma and Watkins Glen are very unique as is the Roval at Charlotte. The amount of turns, the length of the straights, the chutes or lack thereof…you name it, there isn’t a great way to prepare for any of these places. There are some drivers that tend to excel at them, though. The configuration for the NASCAR race is very different from some of the other series that end up racing here. For the Cup Series, this is a 14 turn 2.439-mile course. As with any road course, track position is absolutely critical. Getting from the back of the pack to the front can be an impossible feat, as drivers get mired in traffic and have to try to maintain their tires. Qualifying is going to be extremely important. Drivers that start out front will have a clear advantage in the field.

Odds and Value Picks

When it comes to picking a winner here, there are definitely a handful of drivers we can pull out with the best chances. Kyle Busch is a driver that knows how to get around a road course. He has an uncanny ability to be just aggressive enough to move people that are in his way and stay out front once he’s there. His finishes this year on the road courses aren’t too shabby either. COTA and Sonoma both resulted in a runner-up finish while Chicago was a 5th place finish for him. He’s going to be one to really watch. Kyle Larson is also another Kyle to keep your eyes on. He was out for COTA but he has a 5th at Sonoma and a 3rd at Chicago. Michael McDowell is another driver to watch. The reason for him specifically is because he’s trying to earn his way into the playoffs still. He was bumped from the top 16 after Michigan, so he’s got some work to do. His road course finishes this year results in 12th, 7th, and 7th. That’s certainly someone to consider. He’s consistently good on road courses, so he might be a touch more aggressive as he tries to earn his way into that prestigious top 16. Here’s a look at your potential winners as we head into IMS this weekend (odds from Bovada):

  • Winner: Chase Elliott +750
  • Mid-Range Pick: AJ Allmendinger +1600
  • Dark Horse: Shane van Gisbergen +500

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Shane van Gisbergen is making his second Cup start this weekend, after winning in his debut start at Chicago. This is going to be a place he can really excel at. If his run at Chicago is any indication of future success, he’s in good shape this weekend. He’s going to have a lot on his plate, running the oval at IMS in the truck series this weekend as well. AJ Allmendinger is also another strong road course contender. If he has any shot at getting into the playoffs, this may be it. There is another chance with Watkins Glen in a couple of weeks, but with only 3 total opportunities, I think we’re going to see much more aggressive racing, especially on the road courses, which demand it. Chase Elliott is going to be one of the more aggressive drivers because winning is his only shot at getting into the playoffs as well. He is nowhere near being able to point himself into the playoffs. Let’s take a look at the current top 16 after the race at Michigan:

  1. Martin Truex Jr.
  2. William Byron
  3. Denny Hamlin
  4. Kyle Busch
  5. Kyle Larson
  6. Ross Chastain
  7. Christopher Bell
  8. Chris Buescher
  9. Tyler Reddick
  10. Ryan Blaney
  11. Joey Logano
  12. Kevin Harvick
  13. Brad Keselowski
  14. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
  15. Bubba Wallace
  16. Ty Gibbs

Gibbs knocked Michael McDowell off the bubble after Michigan. They both have to point their way in, so this is going to be a very important race for them. Every driver in the top 16 with the exception of Harvick, Keselowski, Wallace, and Gibbs have a win and are locked into the playoffs right now. Those 4 will need to win, but the question is whether we’re going to see another new winner in the next 3 races. With only IMS, Watkins Glen, and Daytona remaining, it’s going to be one wild ride to see who is going to take the risks to get a win. Stay tuned as the drivers head to the fourth road course of the season at IMS this weekend for one of their final shots at the playoffs!

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