USA TODAY 301 Race Analysis & Predictions

by | Last updated Jun 20, 2024 | nascar

Usa Today 301 Race Picks

Race: USA TODAY 301
Date: Sunday, June 23, 2024
Track: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Time: 2:30 pm ET
Channel: USA

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Ryan Blaney took home the inaugural Cup win at Iowa Speedway, also earning his first win of the 2024 season, solidifying his position in the playoffs. For Blaney, it was a pretty cool win, as he had a total of 80 friends and family members sitting in the stands. The officials had the gates up at victory lane, leaving many of them waiting to get in to congratulate him. I would’ve scoffed and moved those gates myself, but I don’t have a relative who’s a NASCAR star, so we won’t have to worry about that any time soon. Regardless, this victory took him to a total of 11 career victories, and he also notched his belt as the only driver to have a win in all three series. That’s a pretty cool accomplishment. For the guy that ran out of fuel on the white-flag lap at WWTR, this was a good one. He led a total of 201 laps out of 350. The call of the race came from his crew chief, Jonathan Hassler, who made a two-tire call. That allowed him to lead the remaining 88 laps and finish 0.716 seconds ahead of William Byron.

Byron had a great run going and was really happy with his 2nd place finish. He acknowledged the fact that Blaney was clearly the class of the field and that the tire call was the determining factor that won the race. For other drivers, it wasn’t the greatest race. There were eight total cautions for 49 laps. Kyle Larson was probably the biggest surprise to everyone after he took his 8th stage victory of the season after stage two. Unfortunately, Daniel Suarez clipped Larson, sending him into the outside wall on the frontstretch. Although it was sad to see Larson with such heavy damage, the more entertaining piece was that Denny Hamlin was collected and turned into the barrier in the process. For Larson, although they managed to get him back on the track, he finished 34th after going 36 laps down. It was a disappointment, to say the least, after leading 80 laps to that point. His teammate, Chase Elliott, came home third and also trumped him in the points standings after this weekend’s events. Christopher Bell and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. completed the top 5, followed by Joey Logano, Josh Berry, Alex Bowman, Daniel Suarez, and Brad Keselowski for the top 10 spots.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

This weekend, the drivers are headed to New Hampshire, where Denny Hamlin will most certainly be looking for a solid finish. He does well at this particular track. The “Magic Mile” as it is affectionately known is a 1.058 mile asphalt and granite oval with 2 to 7 degrees of progressive banking through the turns and just 1 degree on the straights. Because it is so flat, it is typically very tough on tires. It is somewhat similar to where these guys were but even closer in configuration to Richmond. Because of that increased track length, track position is critical. Drivers will not be able to chase down the leader if someone is able to get out into clean air. On top of that, there isn’t too much congestion just because of the length of the track. There won’t be too many issues with lap traffic. Thinking about two tires? Forget about it. On this track, we’re probably going to see many more four tire stops and fewer cautions than at Iowa. The guys that choose two over four are probably going to have a harder time.

Odds and Value Picks

So who’s going to win? Well, I foretold Denny Hamlin, and I’m sticking with that pick. Generally, after a weekend like he had at Iowa, he will want some redemption. This is definitely a track where he can make that happen. Hamlin is actually the defending winner here and historically one of the best. In recent history, he’s got the 4th best average finish behind Harvick, Keselowski, and Truex. In total starts, he has the best average finish out of all drivers. He’s won here three times and has 11 top-5 and 19 top-10 finishes. Does it get much better than that? Larson is fifth when it comes to best-average finish. The thing about Larson is that he has yet to win here. That’s not to say that it won’t happen for him. I believe there’s just a short list of places that he still needs to win at, and much like Jimmie Johnson, we have to talk about him every week because he’s clearly at the top of the contender list. This weekend, though, and historically speaking, Denny Hamlin is going to give us the best odds. Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into New Hampshire Motor Speedway with odds provided by Bovada Sportsbook:

  • Winner: Denny Hamlin +650
  • Mid-Range Pick: Brad Keselowski +1400
  • Dark Horse: Daniel Suarez +12500

Don’t knock Suarez out. On a positive note, he’s almost an official US citizen now, too! That’s awesome! When it comes to this track, Suarez almost ALWAYS finishes better than he starts. His best finish was his first finish in 2017 where he started 14th and landed 6th. Since then, he’s pulled two more top-10 finishes. Honestly, if he can qualify his car well, he’s likely to be running up front. He’s also coming off a strong performance at Iowa with another top-10 finish, so that’s certainly a confidence booster for this team. Brad Keselowski also managed another top-10 finish last week and has a strong record at New Hampshire. He’s got a plethora of starts here and even a couple of wins. In his last five starts, his worst finish was 10th. He’s absolutely someone to look out for. Something is definitely clicking for him and his team, and I think we need to be prepared for a little more domination out of this garage. What they have to do is keep Denny Hamlin at bay, though, and that’s forged to be a tricky task at this place. Hamlin is also looking to gain more wins and valuable points to position himself well as we edge ever more closer to the playoffs. Let’s see where these guys stand after that inaugural Cup Series run at Iowa:

  1. Chase Elliott
  2. Kyle Larson
  3. Denny Hamlin
  4. William Byron
  5. Martin Truex Jr. 
  6. Tyler Reddick
  7. Ryan Blaney
  8. Christopher Bell
  9. Brad Keselowski
  10. Ross Chastain
  11. Ty Gibbs
  12. Alex Bowman
  13. Chris Buescher
  14. Bubba Wallace
  15. Joey Logano

Logano caught a break with a solid run Sunday, pushing him back into the top 16. They still have quite a bit of work to do if they are going to make it to the playoffs. Ryan Blaney was clearly the big winner, picking up five positions overall. I think that Keselowski losing two spots, even with a top-10 finish, shows just how close points are and how important stage and race wins are as well. William Byron picked up two spots, securing three Hendrick drivers in the top-4 positions. All four Hendrick guys are securely in the top-16 right now, but Alex Bowman is going to need to watch out and keep his eyes on the prize with no wins yet in 2024. He’s currently 117 points behind the leader. These races coming up in the next few weeks are going to be pretty telling. It’s hard to believe, but the countdown to the playoffs is on. There are only nine remaining races for these drivers and teams to secure their spots. What is this weekend going to look like? Well, stay tuned and see! Stick with us as we enjoy a great afternoon of racing at New Hampshire Motor Speedway!