Toyota/Save Mart 350 Race Analysis & Value Bets
Track: Sonoma Raceway
Time: 3:30pm ET
Channel: FOX
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Austin Cindric surprised us all and earned Penske’s 143rd win after capturing the checkered flag on Sunday in Illinois. Some coined it as the blind squirrel finally finding a nut. No one really pinpointed Cindric as the driver that would This was Cindric’s 2nd career win, capturing the victory after Denny Hamlin struggled in the closing laps. Brad Keselowski had another great finish, coming home with a 3rd place run. Tyler Reddick and Joey Logano rounded out the top 5 spots. For Cindric, this was definitely a weight lifted. He secured his position in the playoffs, which was an unlikely feat if left to the simply to the points. Regardless, it was a much needed and appreciated victory for the entire Penske garage. RCR driver Austin Dillon had a strong 6th place run, followed by the Toyota of Christopher Bell, an enormously strong 8th place run for Carson Hocevar, Justin Haley in 9th, and Kyle Larson rounded out the top 10 spots.
One of the biggest disappointments of the weekend was when Cindric’s teammate, Ryan Blaney, ran out of fuel on the last lap, ultimately leaving him with a 24th place finish. Pit strategy was the name of the game and the stop on lap 64 by both Cindric and Blaney put them in competitive territory. With Cindric taking the win this weekend, it was the third different driver in three different races at this track. To me, it seems like there isn’t one particular guy that has figured this place out yet, which makes it fun for the fans. The race was pretty good, but there were even more guys that suffered heartbreak throughout the race. The recent winner, Christopher Bell, was one of those guys who suffered a loss of power after leading 70 laps. That was pretty heartbreaking for that team, being that it appeared that he was clearly the dominant car and the car to beat. Another guy that struggled was previous Illinois winner Kyle Busch. He had an unfortunate incident with Kyle Larson, causing him to park his ride for the remainder of the day. Larson somehow managed a top 10 finish despite the incident. Luck was definitely on the side of Larson vs Busch this weekend.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
These drivers are going to need to hold on to a little bit of luck as they head into the road course of Sonoma. Undoubtedly one of the most precarious races of the year for some, Sonoma brings a distinct measure of skill to this series, with drivers forced to turn left, turn right, control their braking heavily in many different parts of the track, maintain throttle control, and do all of this while staying off the fenders of the guys around them. That’s a tough order sometimes as they navigate this course. Sonoma is run on a modified configuration, the Chute configuration, shortening the track to a 1.99 mile 12-turn run for these drivers. There is some debate amongst the drivers as to whether the chute configuration was the best option, which bypasses turns 5 and 6. Primarily, from a fan perspective, it appears that the Chute configuration takes away a critical passing zone for the stock cars, which have a hard enough time passing at nearly all other points on the track. That’s what makes road courses so tough. It is tremendously difficult to pass a driver once you catch him. The turns are so narrow, so without wrecking someone, passing is nearly impossible. It can be done, but the newer cars make it that much harder since they’re so cookie cutter. There isn’t one team that necessarily has a mechanical advantage because NASCAR has taken much of that autonomy out of the picture.
Odds and Value Picks
Knowing that, this means that this track and the remainder of the road courses are primarily dominated by veteran drivers and sometimes even outside drivers that are familiar with this style of racing. There are many guys who may not excel on the ovals but bring them to a road course, and they are masters of their craft! We saw this much more many years ago, but we do have drivers like Shane van Gisbergen who fill that role these days. Ultimately, history tells the story at these places. Drivers like Chase Elliot, Joey Logano, and Kyle Larson are some of the best at Sonoma. Chris Buescher sneaks his way in there with a 2nd best average finish out of all drivers in the last three races. All time career races at Sonoma still put Chase Elliott at the top of our leaderboard for best average finish. He is followed by semi-retired drivers Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick. It’s clear that there’s something to the drivers that have a lot of experience and the skillset to navigate around a track that is technically challenging. Daniel Suarez also has the 5th best average finish, showing that the guys with some outside experience just know how to get around this track. Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into this weekend’s race at Sonoma with odds by Bovada:
- Winner: Chase Elliott +900
- Mid-Range Pick: Chris Buescher +1200
- Dark Horse: Michael McDowell +1600
McDowell is someone to keep on your radar. If Austin Cindric can pull a win, there’s hope for the rest of them! Honestly, McDowell is a very skilled driver. Since 2022, he hassix top-10 finishes in the last ten road courses. This year, he’s capitalizing on his renewed confidence and is bringing home some seriously strong finishes for his team. Look for McDowell to continue his success and potentially compete for a win this weekend. Buescher is just another guy having solid runs this year. With a few disappointing runner-up finishes, he’s still itching for a chance at victory lane this weekend. This might be his shot. Someone has to stop Chase Elliott, though. As a 7-time road course champ, he’s the best among the active drivers, hands down. I think that he’s going to have his work cut out for him, as this has been a bit of a challenging year thus far, but if he is going to rise to the occasion, Sonoma is going to be where it happens. He’s looking for another victory and looking to increase those points any way he can. We’re into the thick of the season now, and these drivers need to capture every little point that is out there to get. Let’s see where everyone is standing after their weekend at WWTR:
- Denny Hamlin
- Kyle Larson
- Chase Elliott
- Martin Truex Jr.
- William Byron
- Tyler Reddick
- Ty Gibbs
- Christopher Bell
- Brad Keselowski
- Alex Bowman
- Ross Chastain
- Ryan Blaney
- Bubba Wallace
- Chris Buescher
- Chase Briscoe
- Joey Logano
Logano managed to run back into the top 16 after falling off recently. It’s not the type of year we’d expect to see out of this team. With no wins to date in 2024, he’s got to pull something out and quickly. Kyle Busch is also a driver in the same predicament. He dropped three spots into 17th place after his run in with Kyle Larson on Sunday. He doesn’t have a win to hold on to and he is struggling tremendously in the points. Sonoma might be a good track to match his personality, but he’s going to have to bring the talent with him this weekend. Maybe Ricky Stenhouse was right about Busch. This might be all he has left in him. Other drivers like Tyler Reddick need to be on your radar. Reddick is a strong road course driver and is performing at the top of his game right now. Never count that guy out. All he has to do is knock time off the block this weekend. That shouldn’t be too difficult, should it? Stay tuned for a great afternoon of racing as these guys head to the road course at Sonoma!