Toyota Save Mart 350 Picks & Predictions
Race: Toyota Save Mart 350
Date: Sunday, June 11, 2023
Track: Sonoma Raceway
Time: 3:30 pm ET
Channel: FOX
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
This weekend, as predicted, Kyle Busch took home the checkered flag, putting him ahead of Ricky Rudd on the all-time win list for RCR. It was a hard-fought victory with five restarts in the last 40 laps alone. Bubba Wallace brought out the last caution after suffering a broken brake rotor, but Busch managed to pull away from the field in the final overtime restart and win over second-place Denny Hamlin by over half a second. This was Busch’s first win at this track but his third win of the season. After coming off a rough year with Gibbs, Busch has found his groove again with RCR and is flourishing with his team. RCR hasn’t had a season with so many wins since Harvick did it a few years back with 4 in a season. It looks like Kyle is slated to match or beat that this year with half the season still remaining. Busch clearly got past the point many, many years ago where Childress was pretty much going to fight Kyle. It appears their relationship has matured and blossomed into quite a successful partnership.
Busch was the class of the field on Sunday for sure, but he certainly had some contenders in runner-up Denny Hamlin and last year’s winner, Joey Logano, coming in third place. The majority of the day was spent under red flag conditions for lightening in the area. After a two-hour hold-up, the race restarted, but many drivers suffered from much of the same problem. As I mentioned, Bubba Wallace suffered from brake rotor failures. Tyler Reddick hit the wall early in the race. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. had a strong run going, running inside the top ten for much of the day before being involved in a late race incident that caused him to end with a 32nd-place finish. One of the better finishers this weekend was Daniel Suarez. He secured a very much-needed 7th-place finish for Trackhouse Racing.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers are headed to Sonoma for a whole different style of racing. We went from the longest race of the season at Charlotte to just the second race ever at WWTR and now to a road course. I love road courses. I think most of the drivers love road courses too. It’s something different and definitely a different style of racing. There’s so much more to road courses than just turning both ways instead of just left. The cars take a lot of finagling to get them right for the setups of these tracks. From the different style of turns to the inclines and declines, these are unique tracks that take a lot of skill. Last year, NASCAR returned to the “chute” format of the track instead of the carousel. This resulted in a reduced length of track, going from just over 2.5 miles down to 1.99 miles. It also reduced the turns from 12 to 10. The carousel layout was traditional for the track and was brought back for the 50th year, but fans overwhelmingly supported reverting back to the excitement of the chute format, so NASCAR obliged. As you can imagine, with any layout of a road course, tires, and track position are absolutely critical. Track position is everything at a road course, as there are few places to pass without causing the entire field to wreck. We’ll have to see if the brakes hold up this weekend. It’s going to be a disaster with any brake problems at a place like this.
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes to picking a winner at a road course, we have to keep our Enjoy Illinois winner in mind. Road courses take a level of confidence and aggressiveness that Kyle Busch has mastered. He’s going to be someone to watch this weekend and someone hard to hold off. He’s got two wins here and multiple top-ten finishes. With the way his year has gone so far, I wouldn’t put it past him to make it two wins in a row. He had a rough finish last year, but short of getting in a wreck, Busch is one of the best. Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into Sunday’s race with the betting odds from Bovada:
- Winner: Chase Elliott +550
- Mid-Range Pick: Daniel Suarez +1200
- Dark Horse: Austin Cindric +1600
So Austin Cindric has only run one race here, but he had a top 5 finish making him the best average finisher. Take it how you can get it, right? Cindric is a strong road course racer, which is no wonder considering his racing career and upbringing. He attended Skip Barber Racing School to gain road racing experience and followed that with a multitude of different styles of racing, even rallycross. I’m ten total road course starts, Cindric has 6 top 10 finishes. He’s going to be one to watch, but also pay attention to Austin Dillon, who will likely be looking for the perfect opportunity for retaliation after last week’s race. Daniel Suarez will be doing his best to steer clear of the disasters and get his year back on track. Coming off a strong 7th-place finish, I know this team is excited to step into this complex. Suarez is another driver that thrives on road courses. He’s got a mixed bag of finishes, but he’s the defending winner of this race. He also followed that finish up with a 5th place at the next road course in 2022. Suarez is skilled at these tracks and is looking to capitalize this weekend. They’ll all have to beat Chase Elliott, though. Last year’s race resulted in an 8th-place finish. Overall, Elliott has eight road course wins. He’s coming into this weekend off a suspension. Hopefully, he doesn’t make Bubba cry again. We’ll have to wait and see if Bubba can hold his own and stay away from Chase or if he’ll try to drive him into a wall again. Either way, I think Chase is going to be the guy up front on Sunday. He’s got a lot of ground to make up after many hiccups this year. Let’s see what that’s done to his standings in the points so far.
- Ryan Blaney
- William Byron
- Kevin Harvick
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Ross Chastain
- Christopher Bell
- Kyle Busch
- Denny Hamlin
- Kyle Larson
- Tyler Reddick
- Brad Keselowski
- Joey Logano
- Chris Buescher
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Bubba Wallace
- Daniel Suarez
Suarez’s 7th place helped tremendously last weekend. This should be another big points weekend for that team. It might just give them the win they need to launch them into the playoffs. Ross Chastain has fallen a few spots in the points, but not to fret. He’s already secured into the playoffs. This weekend will surely throw a wrench into the points with a road course. Stay tuned for an amazing show for the fans and drivers alike as the trailers pull into Sonoma Raceway this Sunday! Bet your Save Mart 350 picks for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 when you use promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!