Toyota Owners 400 Race Picks & Analysis

Date: Sunday April 2, 2023

Track: Richmond International Raceway

Time: 3:30pm ET

Channel: FS1

What Did We Learn From Last Week?

Tyler Reddick did it! It was a great effort as the drivers and teams went into triple overtime at the end of the race. He managed to pass William Byron with four laps before the scheduled end of the race, but that wasn’t the end. Caution flew shortly after first due to debris from Austin Dillon’s car. While everyone was hoping the restart would give them another shot at Reddick, it wasn’t long before another caution flew for the damaged cars of Ryan Preece and Ryan Blaney. The one second lead that Reddick managed to obtain was wiped out once again. A final caution flew when Daniel Suarez and Martin Truex Jr. got into each other in the first turn. That first turn managed to cause a lot of grief throughout the race. It was something difficult to navigate, especially on the restarts where we saw many drivers go four and five wide.

Reddick managed to hold off the field in that final restart, capturing his first win of the 2023 season and his third career road course win. Overall, it wasn’t a shocking win being that he led a race high 41 laps. William Byron was second in laps led with 28 but finished fifth at the end. Byron did manage to capture stage points from his stage one win, which are critical in this type of playoff setup. Reddick won the last two stages. It was a solid day for Kyle Busch, Alex Bowman, and Ross Chastain, who all finished 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, respectively. There were several guys that had rough days, including former champ Jimmie Johnson. He made a rare Cup start, but his day ended almost before it started when he was involved in a wreck on the first lap. AJ Allmendinger, who usually has some solid runs on road courses, suffered tremendously after also being involved in a wreck, landing him with a disappointing 34th place finish. Bubba Wallace, Kyle Larson, and Denny Hamlin also struggled after an accident on lap 11. Overall, it was not the day many were expecting, but that can be said at many of these road courses where predictability can be tough.

Where Are We Headed This Week?

This weekend, the drivers and teams are headed to Richmond for some good Virginia short-track racing. Richmond is a bit of an oddball of short tracks. It’s a D-shaped 0.75-mile asphalt oval with 14 degrees of banking in the turns, 8 degrees on the front stretch, and 2 degrees on the backstretch. The length makes is a “long” short track. It’s not quite long enough to be considered an intermediate, but it’s definitely not the same type of racing that we see at Bristol or Martinsville. With the high banking and length, there is definitely more speed throughout the race and more of a focus on track position than at any other short track. At Martinsville and Bristol, the drivers can force their way through the field and come back from a lap or two down without any issues. At Richmond, it’s not atypical to see the leader pull away from the field and easily maintain that lead.

Odds and Value Picks

When it comes to picking a winner, there are several veterans who have a good handle of this place. Martin Truex Jr. is one of the best at Richmond in recent history. In the last five races, his average finish is 3.8. He’s got 4 top 5 finishes, including one win. He hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 in those last five finishes. Denny Hamlin is also another great pick here. As someone who claims Richmond as a hometown track, he’s always looking for the win. He’s got the same amount of top 5s and wins as Truex, but his average finish is at 4.2. You may as well say they’re equitable in terms of potentially winning. Interestingly enough, many models aren’t holding either of those guys at the top. Other drivers, including William Byron and Kyle Larson, are coming into the weekend with some stronger numbers. I’m not sold on Larson. I think that Byron could be a solid pick based on his current performance, but based on his most recent Richmond runs, I’m not sure I’d go with him as an all out winner. His average finish is 12.2 in the last five races, with no wins and only 2 top 10 finishes. Let’s take a look at your potential winners (odds by Bovada) heading into this weekend:

• Winner: Denny Hamlin +900
• Mid-Range Pick: Christopher Bell +750
• Dark Horse: Josh Berry +3300

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It pains me to pick Denny Hamlin, but he’s shown strength this season. With the exception of COTA, he’s had some solid runs, and he’s coming to one of his best tracks. I think that Denny is going to be a force to be reckoned with. Christopher Bell is also someone to keep your eyes on. He’s coming out of the gate with some consistency this year and has an average of 6th place in his last five starts here. With 3 top 5 finishes, this guy is coming to the track with something to say. This might be his opportunity for a playoff berth this weekend. Josh Berry is a dark horse just based on his current power rankings and standings. Although he hasn’t raced in the Cup Series here at Richmond, he has some experience in the Xfinity Series. He has an average finish of 15.5 with one top-10 finish. What he is going to come into the race with is an advantage of Chase Elliott’s team. He has multiple top 5 finishes, so the team is going to give him an advantage for sure. He’s done reasonably well with his experience so far driving for Elliott, and this will prove to be a big payout for anyone who nails him as a dark horse. That being said, NASCAR hasn’t ruled whether Elliott will be eligible to run for the championship since he’s out as a driver still. It’s really cost him tremendously by not being in the car, unfortunately. Let’s take a look at your current top 16 after the race at COTA.

• William Byron
• Kyle Busch
• Joey Logano
• Tyler Reddick
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
• Alex Bowman
• Ross Chastain
• Kevin Harvick
• Christopher Bell
• Ryan Blaney
• Kyle Larson
• Austin Cindric
• Martin Truex Jr.
• Brad Keselowski
• Denny Hamlin
• Chris Buescher

Kevin Harvick is another guy to watch this weekend. He’s one of the better Richmond drivers, but he’s also had a rough go of it as of late. I’m sure he‘ll be battling for a strong finish on a track that he knows he can conquer, though. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is hanging in there. He’s been solid in the 5th spot for a minute. I would’ve expected to see him falter by now, but he’s doing the thing and really proving to be consistent so far this year. Kyle Larson is back at the top, as is Alex Bowman. NASCAR chose to give points back and not cost the Hendrick’s teams the massive points penalty they levied a few weeks ago. That was a tremendous hand up to that entire garage. Let’s see if they run with that momentum this weekend. With Hendrick drivers all in prime position, let’s see if anyone is poised to knock one off. Denny Hamlin will be the one to beat. Stay tuned for a great afternoon of short-track racing at Richmond International Raceway!

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