The Great American Getaway 400 Race Picks & Analysis
Date: Sunday, July 14, 2024
Track: Pocono Raceway
Time: 2:30 pm ET
Channel: USA
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Bubba Wallace at it again being a crybaby. It’s a wonder that he gets to act the way he does. If I was Michael Jordan, I’d be embarrassed. NASCAR is losing its ability to maintain any sort of dignity by letting drivers like him get away with virtually anything and drivers having no recourse. It amazes me the amount of drivers that produce fines and the select few that seem to be NASCAR’s “golden boys”…cough cough…Denny Hamlin and Bubba Wallace. Those guys whine and cry. They create chaos on the track, yet it always seems to be everyone else’s fault, or their issues are quietly swept under the rug. Regardless of Bubba’s previous feelings being hurt, Alex Bowman came home the winner at the Chicago street race this past weekend, earning his first win this year. It was a much-needed win, as there have been grumblings and rumors about him losing his ride due to recent poor performance. That didn’t seem to be the case on Sunday. He secured the checkered flag and his place in the playoffs, taking another spot from other drivers looking to covet their opportunity.
Bowman wasn’t sure if he’d ever end his 80-race drought of losses. After breaking his back and suffering a brain injury, you can only imagine the doubt that inevitably infiltrated his mind. He doesn’t have to doubt anymore. Other guys, however, may not be doubting their ability to win again, but they definitely didn’t have a great weekend. Christopher Bell, who definitely had a strong car throughout the race, may have lost on tire strategy. Bell just couldn’t get through the field in the end on slicks to catch Bowman, who stayed out on rain tires at the end. Reddick also struggled and ended his day with another runner-up finish. What happened to SVG, you ask? He won stage 1 and was clearly set for another finish, contending for the win. However, Chase Briscoe lost control in turn 6 and clipped SVG, sending him sailing for the outside wall. With great grace, SVG kept smiling through the trial and gave credit to Briscoe, recognizing he didn’t mean to do what he did. Someone that many didn’t have on their radar was Joey Hand, a very experienced sports car driver. He was also the class of the field, showing the talent and skill of the drivers in the other series. Unfortunately, he couldn’t manage to hold off Bowman on the final restart. He still had a strong top 5 finish. Bowman led the field to the checkered flag over 2.8 seconds in front of Tyler Reddick. Ty Gibbs, Joey Hand, and Michael McDowell rounded out the top 5 spots. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has one of his best finishes this year, coming home in 6th place. He was followed by Todd Gilliland, William Byron, Kyle Busch, and Ryan Blaney.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
Pretty cool seeing results from a completely different style of racing. It reminds us that guys like Todd Gilliland and Michael McDowell are very talented in their own right. This weekend, they’ll need to build on the confidence and experience gained from Chicago as they move on to a traditional style track at Pocono. It’s not a typical intermediate, and it’s as long as a superspeedway, but it’s a triangle. Yep. Pocono is a 2.5-mile asphalt triangle with 14 degrees of banking through turn 1, 8 degrees through turn 2, and 6 degrees through the third turn. Pocono is an interesting race. Drivers tend to get to high speeds, but they rarely bunch up. The field tends to thin out, with the leader often pulling away from the rest of the drivers. It’s a place that requires brakes, though, unlike some of the other bigger tracks. Jeff Gordon took a gnarly hit at this track due to a braking failure many years ago. Tires and brakes are of the utmost importance here, so strategy will play a vital role throughout the race. If it rains, like it always does at Pocono, we could also see fuel strategy come into play. For now, the rain chances are minimal, but it’s still early in the week, and anything is possible.
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes to picking a winner here, this is a track with weird stats. In the last four races at this track, none of the top 8 average finishers have a win. Last week’s winner, Alex Bowman, is the 9th-best average finisher here and the first on the list with a win. Tyler Reddick and Kyle Larson top the best finishes. Maybe this will be Reddick’s weekend? When you dive a little deeper into all-time races at Pocono with our active drivers, that leaderboard changes quite a bit. William Byron sits atop the best finishers, but he doesn’t have a win here either. He’s just consistent. The guy that everyone needs to watch out for is Denny Hamlin. He’s got the fourth best average finish, but even more than that, Hamlin is a SEVEN time winner. He clearly has the most wins out of any active driver. It’s hard to count against him at this track, but we have to look at the entire picture. Let’s take a look at your potential winners with odds from Bovada as the drivers head to Pocono:
- Winner: Tyler Reddick +750
- Mid-Range Pick: Ty Gibbs +1400
- Dark Horse: Michael McDowell +12500
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Don’t count out McDowell. He’s shown us what he can do on nontraditional tracks, but he’s got a lot left for the ovals, too. I think we have the chance to see him grab another strong finish here, besting his only one top 10 finish. He’s had 6 top-10 finishes this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him being in contention this weekend. Ty Gibbs is another one to watch. In the last four races at Pocono, Gibbs has an average finish of 10.5, the 6th best average. Gibbs is also coming off a strong weekend at Chicago. Confidence means a lot. His best finishes have also come from the bigger tracks this year. He’s got 9 top-10 finishes this season. He will likely add to that stat on Sunday. All of them will have to beat Tyler Reddick, though. This guy is hungry for more. He’s tired of the runner-up spot, and he’s ready for another win. With 13 top-10 finishes so far this year, it would be absolutely no surprise to see him at the front of the field. He’s already got a win this year, so he doesn’t have the pressure of needing a win on his shoulders. He’s out there to win, though. He’s not giving anything away. Reddick has to solidify his place in the playoffs, and drivers can only do that by getting these wins and valuable points. Let’s see where Reddick and everyone else is sitting in the standings after Chicago:
- Kyle Larson
- Chase Elliott
- Tyler Reddick
- Denny Hamlin
- Martin Truex Jr.
- William Byron
- Ryan Blaney
- Christopher Bell
- Ty Gibbs
- Brad Keselowski
- Alex Bowman
- Ross Chastain
- Chris Buescher
- Joey Logano
- Bubba Wallace
- Chase Briscoe
Briscoe is a talented driver with some gnarly luck. He needs to do something to turn this season around and in a hurry! There was no movement in or out of the top 16 this week, but there are a lot of drivers still fighting for a win to gain their spot in the playoffs. Theoretically, there are six open spots in that top 16 up for grabs. Only ten have drivers have a win this season in 20 races so far. Will we have another new winner this weekend? Will the race be rain-shortened…again? We have to wait and see. Stay tuned for a full weekend of racing at Pocono Raceway!