South Point 400 Betting Preview & Race Predictions | 10/20/2024

Race: South Point 400

Date: Sunday, October 20th, 2024

Track: Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Time: 2:30pm ET

Channel: NBC

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Shane van Gisbergen was not as fortunate during the Cup Series race, leaving him with a still respectable 7th-place finish at the end of the day. It will be great to see him run full-time in the series next year. I think that his talent is going to shine through, and we’re all going to learn just how skilled he is in 2025. For Kyle Larson, we’re continuing to see just how talented he is, as he dominated the ROVAL at Charlotte, winning his 2nd playoff race. He took the win at Bristol as well, but in neither of these races was he truly in danger of not making it to the next round. His consistency has been key, and he didn’t have much time for competition on Sunday afternoon. In fact, Christopher Bell was the second-place finisher, a full second and a half behind Larson. Do you know who finished in third place and a whopping 8.965 seconds behind Larson? William Byron was the last podium finish, and he was not even in the same county as Larson. For Kyle, it was a pretty stress-free weekend, from what he stated in post-race interviews, simply because he wasn’t on the bubble, which is a place that he’s spent a lot of time in former years. Again, this is a testament to his growth as a driver. The ROVAL is not notoriously kind to him, so a win here is a big deal for him and the team.

Other drivers were in a bigger predicament as they were truly the ones sitting on the bubble. Tyler Reddick was in a big quandary in the closing laps. With 26 laps to go in the final green flag run, Reddick somehow managed to pick his way from 26th place all the way to 11th, knocking Joey Logano out of contention. Reddick knew during those moments that the key to moving forward was going to be staying calm, remaining focused, and realizing that the show ain’t over until the fat lady sings! Reddick was determined in his ability to get to where he needed to be, and he did it. For Joey Logano, it seemed all was lost. But NASCAR has been making some weird decisions lately, so we always have to hold our breath and wait for our Billy Mays moment, “But wait! There’s more!”. In post-race inspection, Alex Bowman’s #48 Chevrolet failed for the weight requirement. This was a pretty shocking turn of events being that there is documentation of parts coming off his car throughout the race. NASCAR does what NASCAR wants, though. Just ask Parker Kligerman. But I digress. That turn of events allowed Logano to take the final spot in the Round of 8 and be only one of two Fords remaining in contention. Chase Briscoe, Daniel Suarez, and Austin Cindric were the other three drivers who will not advance heading into this weekend’s activities.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

This weekend, the drivers and teams are headed to Las Vegas, a place that Kyle Larson has already won at this year! The teams were here in early March, and conditions will likely be similar as we head there this weekend. This track is a pretty cool 1.5-mile asphalt tri-oval with 20 degrees of banking in the turns. There are 9 degrees of banking on the frontstretch and backstretch. Las Vegas is one of those tracks where drivers keep their foot on the gas and roll through the turns with little to no braking. Oftentimes, leaders that get out front stay out front because clean air is king. The starting position is going to be important, so look for qualifying times to dictate where finishes land. Pit stops are important as well. Drivers and teams will need to be in top-notch form. With only a handful of races remaining, any mistake could be extremely costly. Tire wear is going to be important because two or four tire calls could make or break the race. The crews are going to be very important in these calls, often determining the length of time on pit road. With long green flag runs predicted, who is going to bring the correct setup to this track?

Odds and Value Picks

Counting out Kyle Larson is dumb. I hate repeating guys who win the week before, but with his history at Las Vegas, winning this year’s race, and his overall skill set on intermediate tracks, Larson is going to be the driver to beat. He’s only bested in average finish by Martin Truex Jr. I don’t think we’re going to have to worry about Truex, as he’s had a rougher season than he’d like. Truex 1 top 5 and 6 top 10 finishes in the last seven races. He has no wins, though. Larson, on the other hand, has 5 top 5s and two additional top 10s in the last seven races, including three wins. If we scale back and look at total career stats at this track, Larson is the best of the bunch, with only two finishes outside the top 20 in 16 starts. Joey Logano is a driver who has had success in his 22 career starts, also having three wins and only two finishes outside of the top 20. With a newly invigorated opportunity to possibly take the championship, this is going to be an important performance for Logano and his team. Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into this weekend’s race with nodds provided by Bovada:

Winner: Kyle Larson +300
Mid-Range Pick: Tyler Reddick +800
Dark Horse: Ty Gibbs +2000

So Ty Gibbs doesn’t have a great history here, but hear me out. This guy has come leaps and bounds beyond what he was doing last year. I think that his performance in 2024 has been more successful than anticipated and that he’s got a lot more to show us. This weekend, he doesn’t have anything to necessarily lose, so look for him to work towards a solid finish as we close out the season. Reddick is always on the bubble of being an A list or B list driver, but he still hasn’t surpassed that plateau that consistently makes him an A-lister. For that reason, he’s a very strong B list pick, with the 9th-best overall average finish at 13.6 in 9 career starts. Reddick has utilized 2024 to its full advantage and is showing us that he is a force to be reckoned with. I think that he will be upfront and stay there for much of the race. He’s going to give Larson a run for his money! Larson is definitely going to be the driver to beat, though. With his lengthy history of success on the intermediate tracks, as well as his win here already this year, it’s obvious that he is going to be the guy to watch.

He doesn’t have much pressure in the points, although we are starting a new round. That being said, Larson is squarely in a good spot with just points alone, but we all know that another win never hurt anyone. He’s fiercely competitive and 33 points above the cutoff line, so not much to worry about there. With only four spots remaining to be clenched in a field of 8 drivers competing, there’s bound to be some action. There’s plenty of room for these guys to bounce in and out of contention over the next couple of weeks. Ryan Blaney is the driver on the outside, looking in 4 points below the cutoff. Will he be able to make any strides this weekend? Let’s take a look at where these guys stand as we head into the first race in the Round of 8:

• Kyle Larson
• Christopher Bell
• Tyler Reddick
• William Byron
• Ryan Blaney
• Denny Hamlin
• Chase Elliott
• Joey Logano

With the points so close right now, a win is absolutely critical. But then again, how much risk are these guys willing to take? Points are also very important with how close these guys are, but they will need to be methodical in their movements throughout the afternoon. Any small mistake could cost these teams dearly, including errors on pit row, errors on the track, and even errors in setup. How these guys show up in each race is going to be paramount. With Alex Bowman losing his spot in the playoffs due to missing the weight requirement, it’s obvious that NASCAR is being intentional in their inspections, and they will find a miss if there’s one to be found. Stay tuned this weekend as the drivers and teams head to the first race in the Round of 8, with only four races remaining until our 2024 champion is crowned!