South Point 400 Betting Preview: Odds, Picks, and Race Analysis for October 15, 2023
Race: South Point 400
Date: Sunday, October 15, 2023
Track: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Time: 2:30 pm
Channel: NBC
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
And just like that, the round of 12 is in the books! The playoff drivers didn’t have the best of luck, with AJ Allmendinger somewhat stealing the thunder, but it wasn’t unexpected. He has a rich history of strong road course racing, clearly earning his victory without leaving anything on the table. Allmendinger led twice during the race, leading for the most laps at 46. William Byron was 0.666 seconds behind Allmendinger, securing a runner-up finish. For Allmendinger, it was an emotional victory. This was his third win in the Cup Series, but his first on the Roval. It’s been a challenging year for the Kaulig Racing team, the second year Allmendinger has been running with them, but this is definitely a morale booster. Sometimes, that’s what a team needs to elevate and step up their game. Although we’re closing out the 2023 season, there are still plenty of races left for Allmendinger and his team to show everyone what they’re made of and that they are a force to be reckoned with.
William Byron, as mentioned, came in second place, very much in line with his entire year. Consistency is what this team is made of. Kyle Busch had a very strong race, but it just wasn’t enough. His third-place finish wasn’t enough to advance him to the round of eight, cutting him out of championship contention after a successful inaugural year with RCR. Ty Gibbs and Joey Logano finished out the top 5 spots. Tyler Reddick didn’t have the day he hoped for, but he still came in with a respectable 6th place finish. He was followed by Chris Buescher, Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott, and Ross Chastain to round out the top 10 spots. As mentioned, Kyle Busch fell out of contention with Ross Chastain also being one of the drivers dropping off. Finally, Brad Keselowski and Bubba Wallace were the final two with their championship dreams dashed for the 2023 season. The remainder of the field is heading to a new round this weekend for another battle.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers and teams are heading to a more traditional intermediate track to begin the first leg of the round of eight. This is going to be the first time back on a traditional intermediate in a few weeks, so we have a bit more predictability heading into the weekend. This track is a track of speed. Although it’s not a superspeedway, it lends itself to some high speeds and little braking. This typically means that we are going to see some tire wear issues as the day moves on. That is because this track is a 1.5-mile asphalt tri-oval with 20 degrees of banking in the turns and 9-12 degrees on the front stretch and backstretch. These guys are going to capture some serious speed around this place. I had the pleasure of driving a stock car at this track, and even I didn’t hit the brakes around the turns, so these guys DEFINITELY won’t be doing that. Track position is going to be mission critical here as well. Tires are going to help the drivers get there, but they’re going to have to avoid pit road errors and make smart tire choices. We will potentially see entire green flag stages. This race tends to lend itself to few cautions, short of a driver blowing a tire and wrecking out.
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes to picking a winner, there are a few solid choices. The driver with the best average finish since 2020 is none other than Kyle Busch. For some reason, he tends to excel at this track. He’s only finished outside of the top 10 in 2 races in his last 7 starts. He doesn’t have a win, but his consistency is something to watch. Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Alex Bowman, William Byron, and Joey Logano also all have wins here since 2020, with Logano boasting 2; however, he has 4 finishes outside the top 10, leaving Busch as the driver most consistent. Overall, in their entire career at Las Vegas, Logano actually bests Busch over the years. With 20 total starts, he boasts an average finish of 9.9 with Busch averaging 11.0 after 24 starts. We have to be careful treading too far back in the history books, though, as NASCAR has changed so much over the last few years. Those wins prior to 2020 may not be the most reflective of a team’s current capabilities. Logano is certainly still good, but keep in mind that he’s not currently in contention for the championship. But wait. Neither is Busch. Where does that leave us? Here are your potential winners as we head into this weekend’s opening race for the round of eight with betting odds provided by Bovada:
- Winner: William Byron
- Mid-Range Pick: Alex Bowman
- Dark Horse: Austin Dillon
Bet your NASCAR predictions for FREE by scoring a 100% bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 when you enter bonus promo code PREDICTEM at BetUS Sportsbook!
Austin Dillon has an average finish of around 15th with 1 top 5 and 1 top 10 finish in 7 total starts. This year has been better to him. This is a tough track for the younger drivers and the drivers without the best support. Dillon isn’t in either of those categories anymore. I am hopeful that he finally steps up and out and shows us some consistency in skill in the future. He has the support and equipment to be one of the best. This is a good chance for him to do just that. Alex Bowman certainly hasn’t had a stellar year, but with a win and three top 5 finishes at Las Vegas, this could be an opportunity for this team to turn things around. Bowman traditionally does well on these intermediate tracks, and this entire team could definitely use a pick-me-up. Look for Bowman to have one of his best chances at redemption this weekend. He will be chasing none other than William Byron, though. The driver that has been consistently consistent is looking for another win to cap this season. He’s already easily sitting at the top of the leaderboard, but with a win under his belt here, what’s one more to lock himself safely and securely into the next round? Let’s take a look at where everyone is sitting as we enter the round of eight:
- William Byron
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Denny Hamlin
- Kyle Larson
- Chris Buescher
- Christopher Bell
- Tyler Reddick
- Ryan Blaney
Blaney, Reddick, Bell, and Buescher are on the chopping block. Buescher is just 3 points below the cutoff with Blaney widening the spread at 10 points under. That’s still doable by all intents and purposes. Right now, any of those 4 have a shot at shaking things up and bumping someone out of the top 4 spots. Larson is on the bubble, but if history is any indicator, this should be a very fruitful weekend for him. We’ll have to wait and see how it all plays out. Stay tuned for the excitement at Las Vegas Motor Speedway!