Shriners Children’s 500: Top NASCAR Picks & Race Predictions
Race: Shriners Children’s 500
Date: Sunday, March 9, 2025
Track: Phoenix Raceway
Time: 3:30 pm ET
Channel: FS1
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Talk about a comeback! Predicted winner Chase Elliott almost completely lost hope of a decent finish after a lap one debacle involving Ross Chastain. For some reason, Chastain was determined to make something happen on lap one. Unfortunately for Elliott, that something meant that he was clipped by Chastain, causing a broken toe link. For most drivers, that’ll know you out of contention pretty quickly. It’s also demoralizing to have something that significant happen early on in the race. That definitely didn’t hold back Chase. He persevered and made his way back to the front to bring home a very respectable 4th place finish. That’s definitely a testament to his willpower and the equipment there at Hendrick Motor Speedway. Those guys not only built a great car, but they kept at it through the entire race to make sure it wasn’t all for naught.
The biggest winner was obviously the guy who took the checkered flag. Christopher Bell is 2 for 2 in the last two races. He took the win the weekend before at Atlanta and proved that he knows his way around a road course this past Sunday. It was Kevin Harvick back in 2018 who last won two of the three races to start the season off. There wasn’t much up for debate when it came to the win for Bell compared to the three-wide finish we’d seen in weeks prior. William Byron was hot on his heels, finishing in 2nd at just 0.433 seconds behind the leader. Tyler Reddick came home 3rd, just 0.578 seconds behind Bell. The rest of the field was pretty far back. Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch rounded out the top five spots, each over 5 seconds behind the leader. Shane van Gisbergen, Chris Buescher, Noah Gragson, Alex Bowman, and Todd Gilliland rounded out your top 10 drivers.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers and teams are headed to Phoenix Raceway. This track, formerly known as IMS, has a long history behind it, opening way back in 1964. It has had many different configurations, but the most recent is a dogleg 1-mile asphalt oval with four turns. The frontstretch and turns 1 and 2 have 9 degrees of banking, with the backstretch having just 3 degrees. Turns 3 and 4 have 11 degrees. The mild banking and the shortness of this track make it essentially a big short track. With the flatness of it, the drivers have to use their brakes throughout the race and can’t carry the momentum like they do at places like Atlanta. The blue walls of Phoenix make it unique to both fans and drivers. It’s a track that carries quite a bit of speed, yet drivers still tend to bunch up some in the corners. Although it’s “short,” much like Richmond, these guys will pull away from each other through the duration of the stage and spread out. The corners are the best opportunity for passing, as they will catch each other to an extent due to brake usage. Another characteristic of this track is the tire wear that we see happen. A lot of drivers will start to lose their right fronts, causing a lot of carnage as the race goes under green flag conditions.
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes to picking a winner at this track, two of the top 5 best drivers are now retired. Ryan Blaney holds the top spot for the best-average finish in all races since 2022. Ironically, he doesn’t have a win here, but he has 6 top 5 finishes. That’s not too shabby. William Byron comes in with the 4th best average finish in 4 total starts since 2022, with 2 top 5s and 2 top 10s. Ross Chastain rounds out the top 5 in the best-average finish. Both Chastain and Byron have wins at Phoenix. But you know who’s also awesome? Christopher Bell. The guy who’s won 2 of the last three races is headed to one of his best styles of tracks. Shorter flat tracks are an ace in the hole for Bell. He actually won this race last year and holds the 3rd best total speed ranking. For the Fall race, although he finished 5th, the stats don’t lie about how good he was. He led a race-high 143 laps, but he seemed to back down at the end of the race to let the championship contenders battle it out. Let’s take a look at all of your potential winners heading into this weekend’s race at Phoenix with odsds provided by Bovada:
Winner: William Byron +3300
Mid-Range Pick: Bubba Wallace +5000
Dark Horse: Michael McDowell +25000
McDowell honestly doesn’t have a lot to offer on many tracks, but he seems to be pretty solid at these styles. In recent races at Phoenix, McDowell has gotten better and better. In 2023, he came home with a 9th-place finish. He will be looking to beat that finish this weekend. Bubba Wallace is a driver who does well at these types of tracks. Although he’s struggled in the past, he’s come out swinging this year and is looking to make a mark with a win as soon as possible. This is a track that will afford him that opportunity. With an average finish around 11th place, Wallace is still finding his feet and has some work to do, but overall, he is becoming more consistent, which is key to winning some races. Although Christopher Bell is having a tremendously successful start to his year, I think it’s going to be Byron who edges him out this weekend. Byron is looking to break Bell’s streak and has some strong finishes at Phoenix. As mentioned, he’s got the 4th best average finish and currently sits in atop the leaderboard in the points standings after COTA. Let’s see where the rest of the top 16 landed after a chaotic road course race:
- William Byron
- Ryan Blaney
- Tyler Reddick
- Christopher Bell
- Chase Elliott
- Bubba Wallace
- Alex Bowman
- Michael McDowell
- Kyle Busch
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Austin Cindric
- Chris Buescher
- Joey Logano
- John Hunter Nemechek
- Carson Hocevar
- Kyle Larson
Larson must be feeling a little shaky there after losing 10 spots because of his rough day at COTA. It’s pretty unusual to see his name at the bottom of the leaderboard, especially when all of his teammates are sitting in 7th or better. Larson generally leads the pack, so look for him to be aggressive heading into this weekend’s race. Kyle Busch is showing some strength after COTA, picking up 14 positions to get himself into the top 10. It’s been a while since we’ve seen him run strongly. Michael McDowell is sitting in front of Busch, and he’s going to try his hardest to stay in that position, but I am not so sure that he will be able to hold on for too many more weeks. This weekend will continue to shuffle the points as these teams head to Phoenix for their 4th points race of the season. Stay tuned for an awesome afternoon of racing as these guys battle it out to take home the checkered flag at the Shriners Children’s 500!
