Quaker State 400 Predictions
Date: Sunday, July 9th, 2023
Track: Atlanta Motor Speedway
Time: 7 pm ET
Channel: USA
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Talk about a ringer! Not since 1973 has a road course ringer won a NASCAR race. Shane van Gisbergen took the checkered flag at the inaugural race in Chicago. A Supercar driver from New Zealand really showed what he had in terms of skill to navigate around this track for the first time. Everyone was on a level playing field, with no one even able to race in the Xfinity Series race prior, so that there was no advantage in terms of having raced the track before. SVG ended up driving through the field and passing folks to get from 16th to the front of the pack by the end of the race. He was dominant throughout the race. In fact, Chase Elliott said SVG made them all look bad. He admitted that he was in a league of his own and really was a class act on the track. It was refreshing to see the humbleness of SVG in victory lane after scoring his first-ever NASCAR win. In fact, he’s only the 7th driver in NASCAR history to win in his first attempt. This should not come as much surprise, though, as van Gisbergen is a three-time Supercar champion with 80 wins to his name. This guy knows how to drive. Many of the other NASCAR drivers actually said he might have more of an advantage with the car because he’s been driving cars like the newest Cup Series car for quite some time now. We can’t assume he has that big of an advantage, though. With a car that is typically right-hand drive, imagine having to adjust to everything left-hand drive, including shifting. It was funny listening to the commentators discussing how Shane used his clutch so much compared to any other NASCAR drivers. Most typically do not use the clutch at all. Based on van Gisbergen’s performance, maybe they should.
I was pretty disappointed by the comments after the race to be honest. While van Gisbergen gave us quite a headline, there were a lot of supposed fans that had some disparaging remarks about the race itself. Quite frankly, I wonder if they watched the same race I did. I saw a lot of comments about there being limited passing. I’m not sure if y’all noticed, but the winner had to drive through nearly half the field to get to victory lane. Other ridiculous comments included that they shouldn’t be racing on a wet track. I’m not sure if y’all noticed, but they shutdown a big part of the city to run this race. They can’t just extend it to the next day like they can at any other traditional NASCAR track. I think they did a tremendous job of getting the race run, even shortened. It was clear who was the class of the field. While a full race is always the goal, there are extenuating circumstances that prevent that from happening at an event like this. Finally, NASCAR is never going to be the same that it was back in 1975. It just isn’t.
As much as I get frustrated with some of the things that NASCAR has done and changed, I actually thoroughly enjoyed seeing a different type of track. I am excited to see what happens next year, hopefully under dry conditions. I’m sure other drivers like Chase Elliott are as well. Justin Haley finished second followed by Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Kyle Busch. Busch’s finish was extremely respectable considering his earlier run-in with the tire barrier. He parked his car pretty securely under the tires in the first part of the race, but he fought back and showed his skill to get to a top 5 finish. Austin Cindric was 6th, followed by Michael McDowell, Joey Logano, Ty Gibbs, and Chris Buescher.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
The drivers are headed back to what they know best this weekend as they all head to Atlanta Motor Speedway. This 1.54-mile quad oval has 28 degrees of banking in the turns and 5 degrees on the straights. Track position is absolutely everything at Atlanta. The drivers really build up some high speeds and can easily pull away from and lap the field quickly. Qualifying is going to be very important as well. Anyone who can start up front will have a clear advantage. Tires will play a role simply because of wear. We tend to see some longer green flag runs because of the size of this track. We’ve seen issues with tires in the past here, so we’ll have to see how they hold up this weekend. I dare say that we are going to see some issues with right sides if we do end up having some longer green flag runs.
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes to picking a winner at Atlanta, we have a lot to choose from. There are many drivers that are strong on these types of speedways. William Byron is coming into this race with multiple wins this season. Then we have drivers like Chase Elliott, who really need to win to punch their ticket into the playoffs. We also have the crapshoot drivers like Kyle Busch and Ross Chastain, who are great, but you just never know what you’re going to get. Will they have a competitive car? Will they be driving super aggressively from the jump? Who knows! If I’m being honest, I think we’re going to see a really strong showing from Chase Elliott. He’s got so much at stake, but there’s so many drivers in the same predicament. Then we have the guys like Kyle Larson, who is just fantastic at these intermediate tracks and might just predictably take the win. Let’s break down the best of the best and see who is going to give us the best options for outright winners this weekend:
- Winner: Chase Elliott
- Mid-Range Pick: Chris Buescher
- Dark Horse: Erik Jones
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Atlanta is one of Jones’ better tracks. He has an affinity for this place and is coming into the weekend with an 8th place finish from last year. The year prior, he had a 4th place run. Overall, he finishes much better than he starts, and that is saying a lot for this track. Jones started the race last year in 28th and ran all the way up for a top-10 finish. In 2022, he started 25th and came home with that top 5. Don’t count him out. He’s been knocked down a few times this year, but I think this team is going to give a solid effort this weekend. Chris Buescher is another driver we really should be watching. Although he doesn’t have a win yet, he’s maintained his spot in the top 16th based solely on points for quite some time now. Consistency is something he’s been able to do very well this year, and it’s clearly paying off. His last couple of races here haven’t given him the best finishes, but he has a handful of top 10s in his career here. Based on how he’s been running this year compared to years past, I expect to see him give us a good finish on Sunday. Elliott is going to be the guy they are all chasing. He is actually the defending winner of this race, with six additional top-10 finishes. He’s only finished outside of the top 10 in 2 starts. That’s pretty good odds right there. As I mentioned, Elliott needs this win. With everything that’s happened to him this season, there’s really no way for him to advance without a victory. This weekend is going to give him a great opportunity. Let’s take a look at where everyone is sitting in the points after the inaugural Chicago race:
- Martin Truex Jr.
- William Byron
- Ross Chastain
- Christopher Bell
- Kyle Busch
- Denny Hamlin
- Kevin Harvick
- Kyle Larson
- Ryan Blaney
- Joey Logano
- Chris Buescher
- Tyler Reddick
- Brad Keselowski
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Bubba Wallace
- Ty Gibbs
Gibbs had a great run at Chicago, setting him up to sit in the top 16. That probably won’t last long, but who knows. Daniel Suarez is sitting in 17th, so he’s certainly hoping not. As I mentioned, Chase Elliott really needs the win. He’s nowhere near the top 16. In fact, he’s sitting in 24th right now, which is a very unusual spot to see the likes of him. Last week’s runner-up finisher Justin Haley is actually in the 21st spot right now. Elliott would definitely like to change that. We’ll have to wait and see if he can capitalize on his past success at this track. Stay tuned for a great day of racing as the drivers and teams head back to the familiar walls of Atlanta Motor Speedway!
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