Pennzoil 400 Predictions: Can Kyle Busch Conquer His Hometown Track?
Race: Pennzoil 400 Presented by Jiffy Lube
Date: Sunday, March 16, 2025
Track: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Time: 3:30 pm ET
Channel: FS1
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
William Byron didn’t get the win, but he secured another top-10 finish at Phoenix this past weekend after winning the first stage and truly dominating the first part of the race altogether. Ryan Preece saw some short-lived success after winning stage two, finishing the day with a respectable 15th-place finish. It was “winner winner chicken dinner” for Christopher Bell…again…scoring his third win in a row, the first driver to manage that streak since Kyle Larson did it back in 2021. Bell is showing us that Toyotas are still a force to be reckoned with, and his teammate, Denny Hamlin, also had a strong showing with a runner-up finish. Kyle Larson, Josh Berry, and Chris Buescher rounded out your top 5 spots. Following Byron for a 7th place finish was HMS teammate Alex Bowman, then Kyle Busch, Zane Smith, and Chase Elliott.
Kyle Busch is coming away with another top-10 finish, which is something he really struggled with in the last couple of years. This marks his 3rd top-10 in a row, giving us a little hope that he still has something to show us. Honestly, I’m not a Kyle Busch fan simply because of his attitude, but the man can drive. I’d like to see him come away with some success with this team he’s got. Zane Smith had one of his best finishes ever, really taking advantage of not getting completely wrapped up in one of the 10 cautions that took a total of 70 laps from the race.
One of the more notable instances was Daniel Suarez’s frustration with “lappers” in the race. He was most certainly talking about Katherine Legge, who was making her first NASCAR Cup Series run and was having a hard time. Suarez was set to have a pretty strong top-10 finish after a rough start to the season, but two lap cars managed to get into each other directly in front of him, leaving him nowhere to go. Legge finished 30th, while Suarez’s promising top 10 turned into a dismal 23rd place. He was clear in his hopes for women to succeed in this sport, but to his point, why is NASCAR letting drivers into this league with virtually no NASCAR experience? Coming from another series does not confer the same ability to be successful in NASCAR, but that’s a discussion for another day.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, Suarez will try again as the drivers and teams head over to Las Vegas, where both the speeds and the risks are high at this intermediate track. I have a soft spot for this track as I had the opportunity to do some laps here, and let me tell you, if you ever have the chance, DO IT! It truly was an amazing experience. The speeds you can get to on this 1.5-mile asphalt tri-oval are pretty phenomenal, pushing some of the other tracks to shame. With 20 degrees of banking in the turns and 9 degrees through the stretches, it’s a great mix of banking that allows drivers to carry the momentum and speed into and out of the corners. There is very little brake used at this track. It is all throttle. We tend to see a lot of green flag laps here, but tire wear can play a factor in how long those stretches last.
Odds and Value Picks
The most recent six races at this track give us Ross Chastain as the best average finisher, coming in at 5.5, but no wins. Both Kyle Larson and Joey Logano have 2 wins in the last 6 races, with Larson besting Logano in the average finish by about 3.5-4 spots. William Byron is a second-best finisher, also having a win in the last six races, so he’s going to be one to keep your eyes on. Here are are the value picks with odds provided by Bovada
Winner: Kyle Busch
Mid-Range Pick: Brad Keselowski
Dark Horse: Ty Gibbs
Hear me out on Gibbs. His overall Vegas performance doesn’t show the greatest record, but a lot of the issues he’s had weren’t his problem. Check lug nut issues, losing a gear, etc. Those were 100% out of his control, but he rallied back to make a decent day out of it. He finished 5th here last year, so there’s potential brewing. He’s shown us some strong runs this year as well. Brad Keselowski is someone who knows his way around Vegas. He has a total of 3 wins at this track, but his overall speed ranking in the Next Gen car is just 13th. If this team can get some speed to show up, we are in for a good show.
Kyle Busch is going to be the one to beat, though. He is going to have to work around the staples of Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, and Christopher Bell, but if Busch is going to win and wants to win anywhere, it’s here. Not to mention, Busch is definitely looking to secure a spot in the playoffs early on. He’s not looking to scrape by late in the season and stay stressed about making it to the final races.
Current Standings
- William Byron
- Christopher Bell
- Tyler Reddick
- Ryan Blaney
- Chase Elliott
- Alex Bowman
- Denny Hamlin
- Kyle Busch
- Joey Logano
- Chris Buescher
- Kyle Larson
- Bubba Wallace
- John H. Nemechek
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Michael McDowell
- Ross Chastain
Chastain had a strong move with four positions after Phoenix. Stenhouse dropped just as many spots, with McDowell falling 7 positions, needing to have a strong finish to not fall out of contention after this weekend. Bubba Wallace is also looking for a strong weekend after losing six positions at Phoenix. This is not his greatest track, so he’s got his work cut out for him. Who is going to take the checkered flag and bet it all? Will it be hometown favorite Kyle Busch? Can he manage to pull off his first win since 2023? He’s definitely going to give it his best shot, but he’s got his work cut out for him. Stay tuned for this weekend’s race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway to see if Busch can outrun them all!